Products | Tiger Sniffing Business Group
Author | Li Ling
Title map | Tiger sniffing
“Tesla’s battery life is very strong, but have you seen Tesla open the car about the car?” When talking about why not start a new energy car, a fuel car driver asked me disdainfully.
However, he really asked the right person. At the waiting point of the airport in Shenzhen Airport, I happened to see a Tesla Model 3 of about 400,000 yuan in picking up guests.
The new energy vehicle and the network car industry are not “natural couples”, but in order to overcome the industry difficulties they face, the two will inevitably come together.
On October 30, Xiaopeng Automobile CEO He Xiaopeng supported the recent negative CEO Wei Bin, on the social media, and commented: “Today may be the worst industry downturn, but it must be a new journey tomorrow. The starting point.”
Since June 26, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has officially declined. Not only will local government subsidies be abolished, but the state subsidy standard will also be reduced by more than 50%. Whether it is the new forces of Xiaopeng, Weilai, etc., or the traditional OEMs such as Beiqi New Energy, BYD, and Geely, they are all caught in the continuous sales winter.
Around August, the traffic control departments of Zhengzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Kunming, and Taiyuan successively issued relevant policies, stipulating that the newly added network vehicles must be pure electric vehicles in the future. From a policy perspective, the net electric car is unstoppable. This is a new hope for the new energy auto industry that has passed the policy dividend.
But it’s not that easy to accept new energy from the network. “Life is not good” “Easy motion sickness” “Buy can’t sell”… While accepting the non-compliance ticket, and then the user can’t call the car’s spit, it is also questioned that the profit model is difficult for the network car, with pure electric The combination, from the beginning, is full of dissonance and unsightly sounds.
Even some people believe that the low battery life of pure electric vehicles leads to a decline in effective capacity, which will drag down the operational efficiency of the entire network car industry.
T3 travel chief strategy officer Cheng Kai believes that the cost advantage of pure electric vehicles is just a product with both capacity and environmental protection, and the deeper impact is that pure electric vehicles can promote the evolution and operation of the Internet of Vehicles.Smart deployment, to lay the foundation for “smart travel.”
In addition to social and e-commerce, online car is the Internet service with the most extensive user base, and may even become the biggest driver of new energy vehicles in China. However, if new energy and network vehicles want to work together to break the game, the first question is to answer: How to save money (profit) while ensuring efficiency (capacity)?
Save New Energy
Since 2018, all localities have continuously introduced the network car policy, limiting the conditions of the network car to “new” as pure electric vehicles. Beijing, Shenzhen, Foshan and other cities are among them:
In April 2018, Shenzhen issued the “Shenzhen Blue” Sustainable Action Plan for 2018, requiring that new registrations for non-pure electric vehicles be banned from booking for taxis after July 31, 2018;
Announcement of the Foshan Municipal People’s Government Office on Printing and Distributing the Administrative Measures for the Appointment of Taxi Operation Services in Foshan City in August 2019, clearly stipulated that from November 1, 2019, the network car should be pure electric vehicles or hydrogen. New energy vehicles such as fuel cell vehicles;
And Beijing, as early as October 2018, issued a notice on the “Three-Year Action Plan for Beijing to Win the Blue Sky Defence War.” By 2020, buses and logistics vehicles will all be newly energyized, and non-new energy vehicles will not be allowed. On the road. Recently, some taxi drivers said that Beijing will soon introduce a policy of “about the new electric must be pure electric”.
In addition, Zhengzhou, Guangzhou, Taiyuan and other capital cities have similar policies…
Behind the growing “marriage” of net-cars and pure electric vehicles, it is the sales dilemma faced by new energy vehicles. With the decline of the subsidy policy in July 2019, the sales of new energy vehicles showed a significant downward trend.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers data showed that in July, new energy vehicles sold 80,000 units, down 4.7% year-on-year; in August, new energy vehicles sold 85,000 units, down 15.8% year-on-year. By September, the auto industry has entered the traditional “Golden September and Silver 10” sales season, and the situation has not improved. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the month was 80,000 units, down 34.2% year-on-year.
New energy vehicles have always enjoyed the state’s subsidies for green travel, with double subsidies from the state and local governments. In the past, to buy a new energy vehicle with a battery life of 400 kilometers or more, you can enjoy a national subsidy of 50,000 yuan and a land subsidy of 25,000 yuan.
Now, buying a new energy electric car doesn’t seem so cost-effective. For the EU5, the best pure electric vehicle sold by Beiqi New Energy, its lowest price is now 129,900 yuan, plus nearly 10,000 yuan of miscellaneous fees for household registration, inspection, insurance, etc., the demand price is nearly 140,000 yuan. .
Photography: Li Ling, Tiger Sniff
“There is still a large impact on the break, and it has been sold much less recently than before.” A Beijing Beiqi New Energy sales revealed that he only sold dozens of new energy vehicles in September.
But different dealers have different opinions about subsidies.
After the new policy came out, some cars were raised in price, but they have been lowered. The current price is still the same as before.” Another Beiqi new energy sales told Tiger that the subsidy does not affect the market. price. Both the national subsidy and the land supplement are for the car-making company. The price of the dealer’s car is the subsidized price. The final price for the consumer is the price set by the dealer, and is not affected by the subsidy. He believes that “the current sales decline is because during the policy transition period, consumers expect to increase prices, so the indicators are used up early.”
But after the tiger sniffed the BYD sales staff, the subsidy was directly linked to the purchase price of the consumer. Because the subsidy will directly affect the manufacturer’s rebate to the dealer, the amount of the dealer’s rebate determines its preferential price on the basis of the market price. “The models that were previously listed are now worth about 10,000 yuan less.”
In addition to the reduction in consumer purchase expectations and the reduction in incentives, the new energy vehicles have to face the grim situation after the policy subsidies have fully declined.
As a new industry to be nurtured, new energy vehicles are suddenly placed in a life-and-death situation. But in a blink of an eye, the policy opened the door to promotion while closing the window of subsidies.
The tiger sniffs that at present, some of the pure electric vehicles of Beiqi New Energy have produced a special version of the network car, which is only for the mass sales of the network car company. Special offer is 5,000 yuan away from the regular version. Except for the sunroof, the wiper and air conditioner are automatically changed to manual, which is no different from the normal version. Individual users who want to buy, need to call the network car company.
An employee of an Internet electric car brand said that he is optimistic about the policy downturn and the future of pure electricization of the network. He pointed out that the evolution of pure electric vehicles is based on the development of new energy-making technologies and the iteration speed of batteries. With the promotion of policies, “in the next three to five years, at least the second-tier cities and above in China, new energy will gradually replace the network vehicles. The fuel car in it.”
Why is pure electric “poor commentary”
All are looking for a way to live, and they are also looking for “money way.” The pure electricization policy of the network car is just the right time.
According to the principle of 8 years of scrapping of the network car, by 2020, the earliest batch of network car in China will usher in the scrapping period. No accidents, in the next two or three years, there will be a large area of scrapped vehicles. In the process of eliminating and replacing old cars, the sales of pure electric vehicles are no longer a problem.
The problem is also coming. The pure electric vehicles currently operated are mostly low-profile models, and the battery life and ride experience are not as expected.
“When I took a taxi, I saw that it was a new energy vehicle and I immediately canceled it. Now it has become a habit.” Chen Xingjie, a cable car expert, is also a deep user of Didi. He plays two or three times a day, about two. One day, I can meet a new energy network. He will deliberately fill in three words in the reason for the cancellation, “will get motion sickness”.
He believes that new energy electric vehicles are difficult to compare with fuel vehicles, whether it is capacity efficiency or ride experience. The life of most new energy electric vehicles is difficult to support 6 to 9 hours of operation per day, which has caused many drivers to refuse to carry. At present, the pure electric vehicles operating on the market are between 300 and 400 kilometers. After running for seven or eight hours, only about 20% of the electricity is left.
In the past, the main reason why drivers refused to load was that they were too close to earn too little, but pure electric vehicles were just the opposite. Most of the refusal was too far and the power was difficult to support. Chen Xingjie feels that according to the current policy trend, all the future network vehicles will be replaced by pure electric vehicles, and the refusal rate will be greatly increased. The essence of refusal is to reduce the efficiency of the operating vehicle, which is not a good thing for the platform, drivers and passengers.
A driver who has been driving for more than 20 years and is driving a fuel truck tells the tiger to sniff. For professional capacity, the speed of depreciation of new energy vehicles is an almost negligible disadvantage.Unacceptable is the habit of operation: for example, there is a buffer when the fuel car starts, and “the pure electric start is too fierce”; the fuel car engine sounds very loud, and “the new energy sound is too small to be noticed by passers-by. The existence of vehicles, especially in residential areas where motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles are mixed, pure electric vehicles have a particularly small reminder effect on people.”
In the random inquiry of tiger sniffing, every driver who drives a fuel car is not optimistic about the “marriage” between pure electric vehicles and net-about cars. Among them, the biggest problem lies in questioning the endurance ability. .
The poor endurance is considered a fatal flaw in pure electric vehicles. Under normal circumstances, a pure electric vehicle with a life of 350 to 400 kilometers can fully meet the operational needs of a whole day with one charge per day. But the special thing about pure electric vehicles is that battery loss will lower the endurance.
Industry sources said that after three years of operation, the endurance of pure electric vehicles will be reduced by about 20%. That is to say, the design of a car with a range of 400 kilometers will leave about 300 kilometers for the three-year follow-up flight. In addition, sudden changes in driving conditions such as traffic jams or weather can also result in reduced endurance.
In the eyes of pure electric vehicle drivers, the above situation can be completely overcome.
Image Source: Oriental IC
A Beijing-based new energy network driver said that as long as he does not run long distances, nothing happens. He drove a Geely emperor for two years. “The 300-kilometer life has no obstacles in Beijing.” He charges once a night and can run for 9 hours during the day. The car’s battery life has not dropped significantly.
But he admits that the defects in pure electric vehicles in terms of professional capacity are obvious. The effect of air conditioning on summer life is not great, but in winter, “only half of the air conditioner will be left in the air. It will have to be charged at noon, otherwise it will not hold in the afternoon.”
The new energy vehicle has two batteries, small battery tube lighting, and large battery tube power. The former is the energy source for speakers and air conditioners.Will automatically charge; the latter tube power, provide vehicle kinetic energy, requires daily charging. Pure electric vehicle heating comes from the latter. In contrast, fuel car heating is the direct extraction of heat generated by the engine work, and does not consume additional energy.
From the actual benefits of operations, these shortcomings can be tolerated.
A network driver told the tiger that he used to drive a 1.4T displacement fuel truck. The cost per kilometer was 6 cents, and the monthly fuel cost was 5,000 yuan. Later, I bought a pure electric car to run the drip. The electricity cost is low and I don’t have to be restricted by the limit. I can save three or four thousand dollars a month. “There was no problem in the past six months, and I did not encounter passenger complaints about motion sickness. According to the monthly savings of 3,000 yuan, I can earn nearly 40,000 more than a fuel truck in one year.”
As with mobile phones, new energy vehicles charge fast charge and slow charge. The former corresponds to public charging piles, 1.8 yuan/degree, full of 70 yuan; the latter is usually a charging pile installed in the parking space of the community. It is 5 cents cheaper than public electric piles, and it costs about 30 yuan. The operating cost of pure electric vehicles is roughly estimated, only 1/3 or even lower of fuel vehicles.
But the problem is that the charging time of the operating vehicle is tight, the driver generally chooses the public electric pile for fast charging, and the fast charging has a large loss to the battery. In the case that the new energy vehicle itself has a higher depreciation speed than the fuel vehicle, the depreciation speed Faster. Moreover, once the battery, motor, and electronic control are damaged, the new energy vehicle means “discarding”.
“Change a battery pack of about 90,000, usually we do not recommend to change.” BAIC new energy sales staff told Tiger sniffing, the failure rate of pure electric vehicles is very low, but once the problem occurs, the maintenance cost is high, change the car than the change The battery is cost effective.
The effective life of a pure electric vehicle is only half that of a fuel vehicle. It sounds terrible. What is the actual acceptance? “That is equal to changing my car for 5 years. You have an old car for 10 years, but you haven’t earned much yet.” The driver answered this.
At this stage, even with subsidies, the price of pure electric vehicles is still about 30% higher than that of fuel vehicles, which is the main reason that affects consumers’ purchases. A pure electric car that wants to buy the same price as a fuel car can only wait for the “wind”.
“Marriage” promotes profit
Although there are many shortcomings, the effect of pure electric vehicles on income increase has already appeared on the driver. And the most important part of the net car – capacity and profitability, may also be solved by pure electric vehicles.
At the end of January 2019, Didi