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Don’t pursue a rich night, be orderly, profitable, and continue to accumulate advantages until strong.

Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account: The head of the property market, (ID: tz52801) , author: head of the property market, authorized reprint

A friend used to ask me: Why did you buy a house that always rises faster than me? How can I buy a house that outperforms the big market?

This question is very interesting. After a long period of finishing, I finally wrote it out and shared it with everyone below.

1, Be sure to borrow a house

The house is made of brick and steel and is depreciated in itself. In addition to antique artifacts, the older an item is, the less valuable it should be. Why is the price of the house rising?

The biggest secret is inflation.

The loan interest cost of buying a house is lower than the speed of currency depreciation, that is, lying down to make money. At present, this trend is very stable. As long as the spread has been there, the house can always buy it.

Loan to buy a house is to mobilize funds across the period, mobilize future work income, use leverage to buy assets, 30% down payment is 3 times leverage, house rises 50%, self-owned funds return rate is 150%, more than 100%! China can’t find such a stable and profitable investment.

If the house rises by 50%, you have 5 million. Under the premise of monthly allowance, is it the full purchase or the loan to buy two sets to earn more? Obviously the latter

In fact, when China developed to the present, the house has become a class currency, the currency issuance is monopolized, and the land supply is also monopolized. Since the housing reform in 1998, the land supply has been under control, and the high-rises will not build a large number of buildings, so there is no room for large-scale housing prices in the long run.

Someone always thinks that the price of small Japanese houses has plummeted. In fact, this kind of person only sees the phenomenon and tries to explain the phenomenon with the phenomenon. It seems that Japan will fall and China will fall.

But if you ask them: Why can other countries rise, China can’t go up? It is estimated that they have nothing to say.

90% of the world’s developed countries are superimposed on industrialization and urbanization. When the economy is growing rapidly, house prices have continued to rise for decades, and these countries have maintained high housing prices and rarely fell sharply.

(House prices in most countries continue to rise, data source Zeping macro)

In terms of logic, phenomena cannot explain phenomena, and only the reasons can explain phenomena.

Why did Japan plunged in the past?

The biggest reason is that Japan’s land private + foreign capital is quickly withdrawn.

We all know that when an investment product is highly speculated in the short term, there will be a “empty effect” because the price is already high and everyone is nervous. As long as there is a bad news, it can be instantaneous. The people’s fragile psychological defenses were defeated, resulting in trampling and selling prices.

Looking at the history of Japan’s housing price collapse, we found that when Japanese house prices fell, a large amount of private land was sold, land prices could not stop, and house prices certainly fell. Coupled with the large amount of foreign capital entering the Japanese asset market in the early stage, the prices they bought were very low, and they immediately took profits and quickly left the market. This is the same as the financial turmoil caused by Thailand in the past, and foreign investment is one of the culprit.

So is there such a possibility in China?

No. There is exchange rate protection outside, land control inside, and China’s housing prices are stable.

Imagine if the top management sells all the land indicators for the next few decades, and the developers are desperately building houses. What will the house prices look like?

Fall.

However, there is not a large supply of land at the top, and the supply of land indicators has been under control every year. Therefore, it is not easy to increase house prices in the long run, let alone fall.

If gold can be mined in large quantities and flooded, gold will not be preserved. The land in China, like gold and diamonds, was reduced to supply and eventually became a hard currency.

Because of this, the loan to buy a house has become a privilege, regardless of the eligibility of the loan or the qualification to purchase a house is strictly restricted, which is also a measure to prevent large amounts of wealth from being concentrated in the hands of a few people, but also delays the rise in house prices.

You just need to look at the right time to buy a house, but don’t complain. After all, people in those years are not easy to buy a house, the same is true ten years ago.

2, The area you can’t see may rise the fastest

“The lot, the lot, the lot”, although the classic is correct, but in fact, the definition of the lot is completely different in different cities.

China is rapidly urbanizing, the city center is constantly shifting, and the changes in the suburbs are changing with each passing day. For investment, what really makes money is not the good location, but the good location in the future. Investment is a game with the public mind, and the ultimate winner is the “bone and correct” daring person. You dare to stand on the lonely side, buy a relatively low price when others are not optimistic, and finally the market verifies that you judge correctly, of course, the highest rate of return is you.

There are no places for peopleIf there is profit, everyone will be optimistic that the location will not rise very quickly.

In the real estate investment field, why do foreigners always blast local people?

Because there is no such thing as a downtown complex for outsiders, it is worth buying for them to have a package, so they tend to buy in the most promising new areas, which are very fast.

The outsiders do not have the prejudice of the lot, but for the development of the lot, there is incomparable enthusiasm and expectation, and the purchasing power is continuous.

The bigger the blank space, the more imaginative it is to plan. The more suburban areas, the higher the value of the subway.

The newer the district, the higher the price than the old town.

In the past two decades, the most powerful order in Beijing has been that the six rings are larger than the fourth ring, and the five rings are larger than the third ring, which is larger than the second ring.

3, The perfect house must be very expensive

When you buy a house, you can buy it when you need it. If you just get married, you can buy a small two-bedroom. If you have a baby, you can change the small three-bedroom. If you have more family members, you will change the four-bedroom. If you want to go to school, you will change the school room. If the business develops, buy another set of investment or separate the family, buy and buy for life.

This is the logic of the ordinary people’s purchase, and it is definitely the real and normal property market demand, which is absolutely in line with the spirit of housing and not speculation.

Of course, if you can understand the deep-rooted reasons and logic behind China’s rising house prices, this decade will definitely benefit a lot. China’s property market has had many upswing cycles. With a little wisdom, you can definitely make a pot full of money, and even a suite earns ten years of salary.

If you have been entangled, seeing the end of the year at the beginning of the year, delaying your time, always wanting to get a perfect house in one step, you will probably miss the next round.

The biggest disadvantage of a perfect house is that it is expensive. The average person who buys a house initially has insufficient financial strength. The smartest way is to get on the bus first, then change the soft seat for the hard seat, change the sleeper for the soft seat, and replace it all the way. Not watching the train drive away on the side of the road, adding to the distress.

If it’s not a high price, it’s hard to buy a perfect house, so learn to price the defect. In other words, the size of the house can be squared, or it can be oriented toward the general, and even the traffic needs to be improved. As long as the price is low enough, the crab will laugh, so the house is worth buying.

To buy a house, we must focus on the overall situation. We must know how to change, and enter the market with you. The home buyers who follow the trend are often the winners of life.

4, Buying a house is equivalent to doing a monopoly business

If the house is likened to the production department, then the raw material of the house is the land, and the land is monopolized. Then the real estate business is actually a monopolistic business in disguise. Why do developers make money so much because the industry itself gives such a profitable property, as long as the next participation is wonLipofeng.

At this time, a friend said: It seems that the media recently said that 409 housing companies went bankrupt this year. This kind of person is a person who only looks at phenomena and does not like brain thinking. This kind of news is a big surprise. In fact, every time a real estate company arrives, it will set up a large number of subsidiaries to develop real estate to prevent the financial problems of a project from affecting the group. After the real estate projects are completed, these companies will cancel the cancellation and automatic bankruptcy. The automatic bankruptcy liquidation is no big deal.

Since it is a monopoly business, it is natural for individuals to raise their prices after buying a house. Even if you live on your own, it is not an investment, and the house will rise. Because of this industry, the biggest feature of the monopoly market is to maximize profits. Therefore, in the long run, the rise in housing prices cannot be stopped.

But the house is not rising everywhere, only scarce land will bring about a rapid rise in house prices. Under normal circumstances, the housing supply of less land, housing prices are particularly easy to rise, and with the rise in housing prices, the surrounding second-hand housing is rising, many people sell houses for housing, purchasing power is further released, housing prices will increase spiral rise.

5, The best time to buy when no one buys

The real estate has not been rising all the time, and it has not been falling all the time. The rise is the mainstream. Judging from the laws of history, there must be an adjustment in 3-5 years, and it is undeniable that house prices have indeed fallen. However, the big rise will be regulated, and the small drop will also save the market. For many years, there has been no exception.

If you ask me when I want to buy a house, I will say that in an investment track that has been going up for decades, I have the opportunity to enter at any time, regardless of 2005, 2009, 2013, or even the current purchase, future house prices. All are more expensive than before. Even the prices of pork and vegetables have risen, and can house prices return to the past?

In 1979, China’s GDP was only 406.2 billion yuan, and the contract was 49.1 billion US dollars. At the same time, the United States was 2.56 trillion US dollars, and the United States was 52 times that of China.

In 2018, China’s GDP was 14 trillion US dollars and the United States was 21.48 trillion US dollars. In the past 40 years, China’s economy has grown by 289 times, and the United States has only grown by 8.39 times.

In a fast-rising country, the fate of most people will change. This is the big country dividend. But this time will not be too long, that is, 50 years or so. If you miss it, you and your future generations must pay more effort and cost to upgrade the class, and holding a certain property is the best way to hedge.

China’s housing prices continue to rise, there are only a few core reasons –

1. The increase in income brought about by the rapid development of the economy,

2. The increase in the rate of urbanization brought about by the increase in the rate of urbanization,

3, and inflation caused by continued currency issuance

Because of this, buying a house should have a long-term perspective, not a long-term commitmentFluctuations caused by policies.

Buffett is a great investor. When the moderator asked him when he would rise to a certain price, he always shrugged and said, “One day,” he hinted that “you just take The stock is waiting, and nothing else needs to be done.”

The top investors feel that grasping the market is actually impossible, and the policy is changing every day, so the best thing is to always hold positions regardless of market conditions.

It is difficult to predict which city will be the next to let go of the restrictions, and it is difficult to predict what policies will be introduced next year.

But China’s economy is growing and urbanization is advancing. The long-term maintenance of inflation is certain. These long-term trends are enough. What policies will be issued next year will not affect the final result of rising house prices.

At the end of 2001 and early 2002, a professor at Tsinghua University accepted an interview with CCTV, claiming that “2002 was the winter of real estate”, causing an uproar. 2002 is actually the “spring” of Chinese real estate, and it is “early spring.”

In the first half of 2005, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a well-known real estate “civilian spokesperson”, predicted that “Beijing’s housing prices will fall by half, and Shanghai will fall by one-third.” The ending is that from 2005 to 2007, house prices rose for three years.

In April 2006, a netizen issued a “Shenzhen citizen XX’s open letter to the whole society on the initiative to not buy a house”, calling on everyone not to buy a house. Only in the end he himself bought a house and came out to apologize publicly.

……

A lot of people started telling you in 2019 that house prices are no longer rising, and the property market is not going to work, but such remarks often only tell you the answer, but it is difficult to give a compelling reason.

In fact, every transaction is a re-pricing of assets. Normally, the more free the market is, the more balanced the final price will be, and the thinner the profit. From this point of view, it is precisely because of regulation that the people who buy a house have the opportunity to make money.

The high-level introduction policy restricts the purchase of loans, which is equivalent to preventing some buyers from entering. In fact, it has created a man-made price, which is the best time to buy. After buying, wait for the relaxation policy and resume trading. The skyrocketing will do, and every few years, there will be one or two relaxation policies. For more than a decade, the logic of the upswing has not changed.

A truly mature investor is operating in the opposite direction. When a market, a city’s house prices have fallen by 10%, and a few years of sideways, when everyone is afraid to buy, it is the best time to buy. Because of falling house prices, the next step is to rise. Remember, buy and sell, don’t buy up, reverse operation.

But remind everyone: Don’t pursue a rich night, be orderly, profitable, and continue to accumulate advantages until strong.

Summary how to buy a house that outperforms the market:

• Abandon me, I dare to buy a house in the cold market

• Foresee potential lots

• There is no perfect house, learn to price defects

• Make a loan and optimize the debt structure

• Doing a monopoly with the city