This article was transferred from WeChat public account:2020 Travel Lab (ID: PHD2030MRL), author: Ho (before calibration engineers a car company, is a software engineer automotive), title figure from the East IC
When you see this topic, maybe everyone will be surprised. It’s all in 9102. There are people talking about and thinking about the future of the internal combustion engine.
Really, as long as you open the know, or the WeChat public number in the automotive category, all are discussing the development of electric vehicles and when the battery will replace the internal combustion engine as the source of power for the car.
The internal combustion engine is regarded as an outdated and backward technology. At the same time, many regions and governments are setting the exit schedule for internal combustion engines. For example, the German government has begun to study the exit time of diesel engines. European countries such as France and Norway are studying the prohibition of the production of internal combustion engines in 2030. China has similar remarks to set a timetable for the exit of internal combustion engines and has begun to take action in Hainan.
You see, as an “outdated” technology, its future looks like a thin day, destined to gradually decline.
Can the reality be the same as this pessimistic tone?
At least 10 years in the future,The car is still inseparable from the internal combustion engine
From January to September 2019, China’s new energy vehicles (including pure electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles) cumulative production of 830,000 vehicles, It is optimistic that this year’s output will be 1.1 million units, while the internal combustion engine will still have an annual output of nearly 20 million units. The gap between the two is very large.
According to the Ministry of Industry’s latest new energy vehicle industry development plan, by 2025, new energy vehicles will account for 20% of total car sales in the same year; by 2030, new energy vehicles (electric, fuel cell, strong mix) accounted for 40% of the total car sales that year.
Even in 2030, with optimism, we have achieved a 40% plan for new energy production, and 60% of the cars are still powered by internal combustion engines. Moreover, the 40% of new energy vehicles also include hybrid vehicles, which also require internal combustion engines as the main power output.
In 2030, pure internal combustion engine cars will cease to exist and hybrid vehicles will become mainstream
About the future of automotive power forms, experts in the National New Energy Vehicle Innovation Project believe that hybrid fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles will be the mainstream power in the future. By 2035, pure electric vehicles will account for 40%, plug-in and fuel cell vehicles will account for 10%, and the other half will be hybrid.
Not only that, Volvo also announced that it will not launch “pure fuel models” this year. Some media out of context, thinking that Volvo wants to say goodbye to the engine, but in fact Volvo’s original intention is: in 2019, the full 48V micro-hybrid, only the engine and not equipped with the motor (Mixed System) models will no longer exist.
From a policy point of view, the emergence of pure internal combustion engine vehicles is not allowed at home or abroad. In China, by 2025, the average fuel consumption of passenger cars will drop to 4.0L/100km; in 2030, the energy consumption of new cars will reach world-class levels. To achieve this goal, it is very difficult to rely solely on the improvement of internal combustion engine technology. At this time, the assistance of the motor is needed to reach the target.
2030, insideThe positioning of the gas turbine in the vehicle’s powertrain will change. At present, the internal combustion engine is the absolute main source of power, but after ten years, the internal combustion engine is only one of the power, and the motor will also bear part of the power source.
It is precisely because of the new changes in the development trend of automobile power after 2015 that major automobile companies have adjusted their development direction of internal combustion engine technology.
Automobiles improve internal combustion engine emissions and fuel consumption.
As the emission requirements are getting higher and higher, the country’s six is almost zero-emission; but the fuel consumption requirement is five or five liters per 100 kilometers, which is an unreachable number for bicycles.
In the development of the National Sixth, most car companies realized that if they rely on the improvement of the engine technology, such as improving the design of the combustion chamber, using a higher injection pressure injector or adjusting the intake and exhaust valve timing. These technical means are used to reduce emissions, the technical difficulty is very high, the project time is long and the cost is high. And If the equipment is only processed after the exhaust is installed, it is relatively efficient and low cost, which is the shortest and fastest method.
At the same time, in terms of thermal efficiency, the current mainstream car companies have been able to achieve thermal efficiency of about 38%, and the next step is to develop more than 40%. At present, although the thermal efficiency of the engine still has potential, but to upgrade each point, more and more funds need to be invested to study new combustion methods, using new materials and new technologies, so that the cost of a single machine can not be avoided. Significantly improved.
Take the mainstream engine configuration of the National Sixth as an example: In order to improve the thermal efficiency, most of the motor oil pumps, electric water pumps, and variable superchargers that were not available before, plus some EGR technology and lightweight technology addition, additional The cost of post-processing equipment is increased. At present, the cost per engine is nearly one thousand yuan higher than that of the national five.
In fact, consumers are not willing to pay for your new technology. Therefore, whether to continue to invest heavily in internal combustion engines, research on the next generation of internal combustion engine products, and the cost-effectiveness of new technology investment, there are very Big controversy.
Furthermore, due to the development of new energy technologies and smart driving, car companies have significantly increased their investment in these two areas over the years – After all, no one wants to lose the future, the corresponding in the tradition Investment in internal combustion engines will be reduced.
In the field of civil engines, car companies must pursue the maximization of benefits. It is impossible to completely discard the internal combustion engine, but how to find the most suitable internal combustion engineThe direction of the exhibition seems to be still a question. At present, the most realistic approach is to use the motor in conjunction with the internal combustion engine to develop hybrid power to achieve a win-win situation in thermal efficiency and emissions.
Development direction of internal combustion engine under hybrid power
The internal combustion engine has some specific operating conditions, and the thermal efficiency and emissions are very poor. This is not a technical incompetence problem, but a common problem of heat engines.
For example, in the initial stage, the car needs to increase the fuel injection amount by overcoming the inertia force. The fuel consumption is higher at this stage;
In some low-speed driving conditions, the speed is low, the mixing of the in-cylinder mixture is not uniform, and the combustion temperature is not high enough, and the engine is in a high-emission and high-fuel consumption area;
In some emergency conditions, when you need to step on the throttle, in order to continue to get a large power output, it will increase the fuel injection, and the fuel consumption is also high;
If these conditions are directly replaced by electric motors, and the internal combustion engine does not participate in these conditions, the car can fully achieve fuel economy and reduce emissions. Take the Corolla dual engine as an example. This hybrid model is now the favorite of the drip driver. It is equipped with a 1.8L naturally aspirated engine. The fuel consumption of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is only 1.3L/100km. Even if the fuel consumption of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which is too ideal, is abandoned, the measured fuel consumption in urban areas is only about 3.5L/100km. At present, no diesel locomotive can achieve such low fuel consumption, and there will be no future.
Under this line of thinking, the development of internal combustion engines in 2030 will be two aspects:
First, in the past, for the optimization of the internal combustion engine, the whole working condition will be optimized and the design will be improved. This approach may not be needed in the hybrid era, and the internal combustion engine in the new era can develop an internal combustion engine suitable for hybrid power. It is only optimized for some high-efficiency and low-discharge conditions, and it is transformed from “all-in-one” to “some points”.
Before this way