The downturn of the auto market, no matter the whole industry or the enterprises in which they are located, they all need some confidence.
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “Car cloud” (ID: cheyunwang ), author Shi Wenjie.
Unexpectedly, the new energy vehicle market will continue to decline in October, which will be the fourth consecutive month of decline in the fourth consecutive month after the new energy subsidy policy fell back in July.
This is a bit frustrating. When many car companies began to invest heavily in the electrification transformation, the products did not come out, but the market began to turn down.
If the short-term decline in July and August is still expected, due to the impact of subsidies, the decline in the new energy market by more than 30% in September is a big surprise, and this situation seems to be continue.
Many experts are not too daring to predict the sales of new energy vehicles this year. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers has twice lowered its sales forecast for new energy vehicles this year, down from 1.6 million units to 1.4 million units.
“Even with such a goal, there is almost no hope for it.” Some industry experts said to the car cloud network.
What happened to the new energy vehicle market?
In the last few days of October, the 10-day New Energy Vehicle Promotion Festival is coming to an end in Beijing’s historic auto store, Beichen Asian Games Village Auto Trading Market. There was a lot of empty space in the venue, except for the dealers who were still strong at the booth. There were very few people watching the car.
“The sales of these days are better than usual.” A BYD 4S store owner is one of the last to hold. According to him, during the promotion festival, BYD sold a total of 30 new energy vehicles.
Before the implementation of the subsidy New Deal in June this year, the BYD 4S store has a monthly sales volume of 200 units. By July, the monthly sales volume was less than 100 units. According to the dealer, even if it is a promotion festival every day for a month, it has just been flat with July sales.
In September, BYD Auto sold only 13,700 vehicles, down 50.97% year-on-year.
BYD is not a case. In this prestigious car hypermarket, brands of big and small are row upon row, but many people have to say goodbye to years of car sales, andMake a living.
The data is also saying the same thing.
In September, China’s new energy vehicle sales were 80,000 units, down 34.2% year-on-year. Among them, the sales of pure electric vehicles was 63,000, down 33.1% year-on-year, and the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 17,000, down 38.4% year-on-year.
In the third month after the subsidy retreated, the entire market still failed to resume positive growth, which shocked the industry. This has also triggered further doubts about new energy vehicles in the industry. “No one is really willing to buy new energy vehicles.”
He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Automobile, believes that “the majority of domestic electric vehicles are actually sold to B-end users, and only 100,000 are actually sold to private consumers.”
In the chart of the past three years given by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it can be clearly seen that the growth rate of new energy vehicles in 2019 has reached the lowest in recent years. And it also changed the normal state of sales in the second half of last year, and it has weakened frequently.
In the past, the trend of the new energy vehicle market before the low and high, may be completely broken in 2019.
“I judge that the sales of new energy passenger cars in 2019 are likely to be about 10% lower than in 2018. In a discussion organized by electric car watchers in July this year, the president of the National Federation of Automobile Federation Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce Li Jinyong, president of the New Energy Vehicles Branch, made a prediction for this year’s new energy vehicle market. According to this speculation, the total sales volume of new energy vehicle passenger cars this year is only 1.1 million.
According to the data of the China Automobile Association, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has reached 872,000 units. According to the current monthly sales of new energy vehicles, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2019 is likely to be even as predicted by Li Jinyong. Lower, and this is expected to be 300,000 lower than the market price of the last adjustment of the China Automobile Association.
“Because of the particularity of the market environment this year, it is difficult to achieve the set goals. We have not made predictions on sales volume. The hope of sales growth depends on next year,” said Cui Dongshu, deputy secretary-general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association.
Is it a disaster?
Because of the time-consuming node of the market decline, the time for the new energy vehicle subsidy policy to fall back is very consistent, so most people blame the decline in the new energy vehicle market due to the substantial decline in subsidies. According to the latest subsidy policy in 2019, the subsidy for a pure electric vehicle is less than one-third of last year.
However, all the reasons for the decline in the market will be subsidized.Slope is obviously unscientific.
“The performance of the new energy vehicle market in the second half of the year is somewhat abnormal. The subsidy is not the whole reason.” Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, believes that in addition to the withdrawal of the subsidy policy, the market is weak, the travel company’s procurement is reduced, and the fuel trucks are greatly reduced. The combination of the enthusiasm for new energy consumption and the consumer’s wait-and-see attitude with Tesla’s domestic models and joint-venture brand electric vehicles has created the speciality of the new energy vehicle market this year.
In the first half of this year, due to the large number of fuel-efficient trucks in the country, many users who are in the process of purchasing new energy vehicles or fuel vehicles are turning around and buying fuel vehicles. Coupled with the subsidy to retreat, the last wave of subsidies for new energy vehicles. This caused the demand for new energy vehicles in the second half of the year to be overdrawn in advance.
In addition, the situation of non-restricted cities like Luoyang is not clear. According to relevant reports, in some new energy vehicle 4S stores in Luoyang, sales were only half of the same period.
Private consumers are not enough to support the operation of the entire market. Since the second half of this year, the power of B-end customers is no longer so strong.
In recent years, shared travel and online car have become important new customers of new energy vehicles. However, with the overall decline of the Chinese auto market, the share of travel has continued to decline. Many travel companies are difficult to sustain and reduce the purchase of new energy vehicles.
Through the description of a dealer in Luoyang, the loss of the shared travel platform led to the entry of most new energy vehicles into the used car market at a low price, and seized the market share of small electric new cars in the county.
The vehicle flow of the travel company blocks the purchasing power of downstream users, while the decline of the overall business of the shared travel company in the big environment hinders the purchase of new energy vehicles by the B side.
According to unofficial statistics, in the early days of the rise of shared travel business, travel companies’ purchases of new energy vehicles were almost the same as those of private users.
“In the past two years, due to the poor performance of most travel companies, the demand for new energy vehicles has declined. In particular, the most devastating decline in the overall auto market this year is the purchase of B-ends.” GoFun CEO Tan Tan explained to Car Yun today. Market situation.
A wait-and-see mood caused by new products
At present, the market wait-and-see mood is very strong. Consumers are not very good at grasping the timing of specific shots. They are like the leopards when they prey, staring at their prey, but they are not vivid.
The domestic version of Tesla is coming, although the pre-determined price of the domestic version has been announced early, butIt is considered that the price is too high. People are waiting for the price it really landed. Because Tesla has the habit of adjusting prices at will, people don’t know whether the current domestic price is a smoke bomb. People are still looking for a lower-priced domestic Model 3.
Volkswagen’s new energy car is coming. On October 30, FAW-Volkswagen’s Bora Pure Electric and Golf Pure Electric were listed at a price range of RMB 14-16 million. As a leader in the traditional fuel vehicle market, Volkswagen’s new energy vehicles with great brand recognition will undoubtedly become an important choice for many new energy vehicle consumers. Such a scene can also be confirmed from the plug-in hybrid market. Passat plug-in hybrid has replaced BYD for several months and has become a leader in the plug-in hybrid market.
The Mercedes-Benz EQC is coming, and Audi’s e-tron is coming. Pure electric vehicles from German luxury brands have also made many consumers drool.
Audi e-tron
So, July-September is a smashing moment in China’s new energy vehicle market. When many manufacturers with high brand accumulation launch new energy vehicles, they may bring a little comfort to the market.
The car is in a hurry, push the free charge
The reality has not changed. What is important now is how many new energy car companies face reality.
The mileage anxiety and charging problem is the first obstacle to the user’s purchase of new energy vehicles. New energy vehicle companies started with the vehicle itself, launched a long-life version of the new energy electric vehicle, and launched a more favorable solution in the field of charging.
On October 17, GAC New Energy listed Aion LX, the second model of the Aion series. According to the official introduction of GAC, Aion LX has a cruising range of 600km. This cruising range is almost equivalent to the mileage of a tank of traditional fuel vehicles.
Wei Ma Automobile was launched in August this year with an EX5520km long battery life version. The Weimar Auto Sales Consultant told Che Yun that the current model accounted for 70% of the total order in the store.
Besides thisIn the field of charging, car companies have shown great sincerity.
On October 25th, the new car company Weimar Automobile, together with GAC New Energy, BYD Auto and Beijing Auto, jointly cooperated with Electric Vehicle Service Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China State Grid. Introduce more practical preferential policies in the field of charging.
This means that pure electric vehicle users enter the era of free charging, and the electricity bill is paid by the manufacturer.
Among them, Beijing Auto announced the investment of 1 billion yuan for the charging of private users, GAC New Energy launched a charging service package for individual users and industry users; BYD launched a travel company 30,000 degrees, individual users 5000 degrees free charge limit. As the only new vehicle in the four major OEMs, Weimar Motors announced that it will be able to enjoy unlimited free charging for three years with the EX5 520 version of pure electric private users of the customized version of Weimar and State Grid.
Before this, another new car-building force, Wei Lai has taken the lead in announcing that the first owner will change his life for free. Earlier, Tesla also introduced a lifetime free overcharge policy for owners of Model S and Model X.
Car companies have come up with the biggest killer in the field of charging. What is hidden behind the “optimized charging service system” is the hope of boosting the new energy vehicle market.
Car Cloud Summary:
In the coming months, the continued decline in the new energy vehicle market seems inevitable. Regardless of the entire industry or the companies in which they are located, they all need some confidence.