Recently, China’s highest-priced throne has changed.
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account: Large beard said the room, (ID: dahuzishuofang) , author: bearded Lijun Huai, authorized reprint
In the past few years, the city with the highest housing prices in China has been the non-emperor of Beijing. Until this October, the price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen increased by 1.07% from the previous month to 65,364 yuan/m2, and Beijing, which officially exceeded 64,265 yuan/m2, became the first city in mainland China.
(Data Source: China Price Quotes Network)
Compared with new homes, second-hand housing data can better reflect the real situation of the market.
The price of new homes is more susceptible to external factors such as regulation and control policies, land supply rhythm, and developer trading strategies. Second-hand housing prices are formed by mutual communication between buyers and sellers, directly representing the wishes of the old landlord and the pick-up man. The price is the purest supply and demand relationship, and it is also the fundamental reaction of a city’s economy, environment and population.
So, is the fundamentals of the city of Shenzhen really worth the first in the country?
01,Why is it Shenzhen?
In terms of city value, no one in North Supreme will recognize Shenzhen as the number one. However, from the perspective of supply and demand, it seems that it is the hardest to buy a square meter of real estate in Shenzhen.
The actual administrative population of Shenzhen is about 23 million, but there are only 1.7 million sets of commercial housing with property rights registration.
According to a set of 3 people, you can easily pull 4 people on the streets of Shenzhen, and only 1 person will have a local house. If the name on the real estate certificate is counted, you have to pull 13 people.
The actual administrative population of Beijing may be 40 million. According to the residential area of the Bureau of Statistics, there are only about 3.11 million commercial housing units in Beijing.
But the ratio between 4000 and 311 is still less than the 2300 and 170 in Shenzhen.
Today, the population of Shenzhen is still flowing at a rate of about 500,000 a year. However, under the continuous implementation of the Beijing and Shanghai control policies, the population has changed little from 2014 to the present.
You can say that Beijing and Shanghai are in “”Take the cage for a bird”, change the “pseudo-demand” that can’t afford the house, and exchange the “real demand” of the affordable house. However, you can understand the relative ratio, and then there is no Shenzhen open bird. The demand brought by the cage is great.
However, the continued growth of the population and the scarcity of commercial housing are indeed the market status at the supply and demand level. However, the country’s first price, the extrusion effect brought by the future will not bring a devastating blow to the city. This is a question worth exploring.
02, What supports Shenzhen?
If it is said that the characteristic demonstration area of socialism has propped up the housing prices in Shenzhen, it is estimated that it is only a phrase of the downstairs intermediary. The true potential and strength of Shenzhen is not a concept like 818.
In China, the total GDP, per capita GDP, and GDP per capita are ranked in the top five cities, and there is only one, that is, Shenzhen.
Relying on the vitality of the private economy, the spring breeze of the SAR policy, the location of the southern coast, and many other blessings, the young Shenzhen took less than 40 years to complete the leap from zero to today.
This gives people the space to think about the future of it, and it is one of the reasons why young people from all over the country come here.
It has new urban areas, far-planned and high population carrying capacity. It has a good climate, greening and good air quality. It is fair in employment and it is inclusive. Indeed, these highlights that attract the population are the basic factors that support the price of real estate in Shenzhen. In the short term, you say that it will fall, which is basically unrealistic.
But in the long run, the extrusion effect in Shenzhen has become increasingly prominent, and the trend of hollowing out of the industry has gradually emerged. The manufacturing industry has gradually moved out, office buildings are largely vacant, labor costs have increased due to the increase in rental costs, and high-tech talents have seen a new wave of urban resurgence.
A series of phenomena show that the consequences of high housing prices have already sprouted. One day in the future, will Shenzhen pay the price for its high housing prices?
03, Shenzhen enters the “middle-age crisis”?
In developmental psychology, when individuals are 39-50 years old, they are prone to anxiety and discomfort in the aging of body and mind. We call it the middle-aged crisis.
Shenzhen, which established the SAR in 1980, this year is the 39th year. Some bottlenecks in economic development have also quietly emerged over time.
Savills Davis released a report last month that showed that the Grade A office space in Shenzhen in the third quarter had a vacancy rate of 22.4%, and in some areas, even more than 50%.
The same is true of our field visits. In the 5A Grade A office building like the Dachong International Business Center, there are still many empty offices that cannot be rented out for a whole year. And the entire Nanshan Science and Technology Park, the rent is diving.
Obviously, companies with high prices have chosen to flee the city.
The most powerful manufacturing industry for economic support has also moved to lower land prices.
The tens of thousands of employees from Huawei moved to Songshan Lake in Dongguan, and the Guanlan Toy Factory, which has been rooted in Shenzhen for more than 20 years, moved to Heyuan. Regardless of the high-end and low-end, large enterprises and small enterprises have a tendency to withdraw.
According to the “Special Work Report on the Development of SMEs in Shenzhen in 2018”, in 2018, there were 91 foreign industrial enterprises in Shenzhen.
When the real economy is squeezed by high housing prices, short-term house price climax may not be good news for the city.
If there is a hollowing out of the industry, the consequences will be difficult to imagine.
HK’s GDP growth rate has fallen to 0.6% in the first quarter and 0.4% in the second quarter. Of course, this is somewhat related to some of the storms, but it is different from the real estate industry’s accumulation of excessive capital and high housing prices. Economic negative externalities such as solidification and the lack of industrial hollowing out of the physical industry are equally inseparable.
We can’t help but have some worries: Shenzhen, will it be the next HK?
04, Fortunately, Shenzhen is Shenzhen
Shenzhen and HK have two biggest differences.
One is the prosperity and development of high-tech enterprises in Shenzhen, which is completely different from the economic structure dominated by HK in the financial, real estate and service industries.
HK missed the mobile Internet for 10 years and lacked the core growth point to support its future development. The high-tech enterprises in Shenzhen still grow at a relatively fast rate, and the maintenance rate of effective invention patents in Shenzhen for more than 5 years is 84.99%, ranking first in the country.
Shenzhen’s R&D investment accounts for 4.2% of GDP, while the figure for HK is only 0.7%.
You might say that New York is also a city dominated by the financial industry. There are not enough technology companies, and the economy remains strong. Technology may not be so important.
Then you may be confused by the surface intuition that many of Manhattan’s tall buildings bring.
New York has always been one of the US technology centers, with more than 7,600 technologiesThe company, but it did not hatch the “Facebook” such a giant, causing its technology industry to be covered by the booming financial industry and advertising industry.
According to the “New York Times” news, e-commerce giant Amazon is about to choose New York as the second headquarters, not coincidentally, another Internet giant Google, also set their sights on New York.
In any city, technology is always the primary productivity. Shenzhen’s scientific and technological strength firmly supports the future of its economy.
Second, Shenzhen is backed by Dongguan and has strong upstream support for manufacturing. Whether it is HK or Silicon Valley, it is very difficult to do this.
In economics, the underlying logic of industry hollowing out is for the country.
The United Kingdom once called the “world factory”, and its highly developed manufacturing industry has made it the financial center of the world. But then, British industrial capital made a big investment in overseas investment, and the manufacturing industry moved out, which directly led to the slowdown of its industrial technology. A large number of emerging technologies were all in the hands of the United States and Germany. The British economy began to rely too much on imports, and London was replaced by New York. .
It is true that Shenzhen’s manufacturing industry is also moving out in large numbers. But the good news is that these manufacturing industries are all around Shenzhen, not Dongguan or Huizhou. Even if the cities around the world are slowly developing, Shenzhen still has a strong grasp of manufacturing technology and downstream industries.
You can think of the entire Dawan District as a city. Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Dongguan and other places are just different areas. There are no import and export dependence and technical barriers. The hollowness of this kind of city and the hollowing out of the industry relative to the country. , is completely different.
This is also the economist Zhang Wuchang asserted that Shenzhen is the core point of the Earth Economic Center, Dongguan production, Shenzhen sales, “front shop and back factory” efficient mode, the world’s Bay Area is unique.
This year, Shenzhen expects a 6%-7% economic growth rate to be less than 8.8% in 17 years and 7.6% in 18 years. This is mainly because the decline in import and export volume is not too much related to the growth of housing prices. This also shows that Shenzhen’s science and technology still needs to be improved, and it is impossible to manufacture some necessary products such as chips in China, and it can only rely on imports.
Gree’s phrase “Mastering Core Technology” is still the last word and the unshakable development direction of Shenzhen.
So, whether it is a factory move or an office building is vacant, it is a short-lived pain for Shenzhen.
As long as high-tech enterprises and R&D investment have not declined, real estate investment will continue to remain below 10% of GDP, and there will be more efficient, advanced and profitable in the future.Modern industry has replaced the former manufacturing industry. The crowding out effect brought by high housing prices is actually affordable.
05, My point of view: Still optimistic about Shenzhen for a long time
In the future, Shenzhen may take the road of Singapore. The price of commercial housing is high, but the price of a large number of public housing is kept at one-third or even lower in commercial housing.
Of course, this depends on whether the 1.7 million public housing plans of 2035 can be realized and the development of Shenzhen in recent years.
Many young people left Shenzhen because of high housing prices, but the impact on Shenzhen was not great, because a new batch of young people rushed to the scene.
This sounds cruel and helpless.
Shenzhen is now the first city in terms of price, maybe just the beginning…