This article is from WeChat public account:Positive solution (ID:zhengjieclub), original title: “Let Japan and South Korea It’s hard to make a big loss, it’s harder to build than an aircraft carrier: this time China will try it out. The title map is from: Visual China
The world’s shipbuilding industry is one of the best. Even China, which has been built by aircraft carriers, has not even built a large cruise ship.
This is the truth.
The large-scale cruise ship, known as the “Pearl of the Crown” in the shipbuilding industry, is also the only high-tech ship in China that has not been overcome.
Until October this year, the first domestic large-scale cruise ship began to cut the first steel plate. It is already 107 years after the sinking of the most famous large cruise ship “Titanic”.
How difficult is it to design and build a large cruise?
Why should China start climbing the “Mount Everest” in the shipbuilding industry at this time?
1. China opens a luxury cruise ship
October 18, a “first large cruise ship in ShanghaiThe news of “starting work” does not seem to attract much attention. After all, luxury cruise tourism has a history of more than 100 years in foreign countries, but only in China for more than a decade, everyone’s concept of cruise is nothing more than a larger passenger ship. .
This domestic cruise ship, which is scheduled to go to sea in 2023, belongs to the Vista-class (135,000 tons) large cruise ship, which is 323.6 meters long and almost With 24 floors, 2,125 rooms can bring more than 5,000 passengers to the sea at a time.
(made cruise ship cost 750 million US dollars, 135,000 gross tons)
There are “power plants”, “waterworks” and even wineries on board, and hotels, restaurants, swimming pools and cinemas are standard.
The large cruise ship is actually moving the giant entertainment complex on the land to the ship, more like a “miniature city” swimming in the sea.
(Large cruise, there are almost all land entertainment projects, more like a floating city)
2. More complicated than aircraft carrier?
The difficulty of building a “floating city” is imaginable.
Large cruise ships and aircraft carriers are collectively referred to as the “crown jewels” of the shipbuilding industry, and compared to aircraft carriers, the design specifications are more than normal.
For the type of cruise ship currently manufactured in China, there are 25 million light components. You know, a big plane like Boeing Airbus has about 2 million parts, and the number of parts in a cruise ship is about 10 times that of an airplane. Just design drawings and materials, there are 150,000 pages, almost 2.1 tons.
(The construction of large cruise ships is extremely complex and requires a high quality of construction)
Although individual components are not difficult to produce, integrating them together is an extremely complex process.
This domestic cruise ship has almost 70 public areas, and each area has a large number of systems that need to be fully coordinated to ensure normal. Simply put, just like playing a 25 million pieces of oversized bricks, how to sort out complex logical relationships, a piece of not less than one piece and a lot of seamless, is the biggest difficulty.
Of course, one more difficulty is that China’s experience in this area is zero.
3. Where is the big cruise?
In fact, there are very few countries around the world that can build large cruise ships.
The construction of luxury cruise ships has been highly monopolized by the four European countries of France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands, and even the United States has no share. Italy’s Fincantiny Shipyard, Germany’s Meyer Shipyard, French Atlantic Shipyard and Aker Shipyard in the Netherlands are among the top cruise shipbuilding companies in the world, and their cruise orders account for 9 global orders.0% or more.
(Germany Mayer Shipyard, the entire cruise ship can be assembled indoors)
It is reasonable to say that even Chinese aircraft carriers can design and manufacture their own, and domestic cruise ships should be a matter of course. The large cruise ship is different from all ships except that it is extremely difficult to design and build. Because it is like a “luxury” in itself.
The huge size of 10 million tons, thousands of cabins, the internal design of large cruise ships is not only practical, but also comfortable and beautiful. In addition to the basic living requirements of the living and eating, we must also meet the passengers’ requirements for entertainment, shopping and leisure.
How to combine luxury and function, just like the design of a luxury car, there is really no ready-made model in China, and it must have a long-term accumulation.
After all, France and Italy are places where they have been playing luxury for a hundred or two years.
(Inside the large cruise ship, in addition to satisfying the entertainment function, more important is the comfort)
In addition to the integration of features and appearance, another difficulty in the huge system engineering of cruises is the integration of supplier resources. A large cruise ship has 25 million parts, and there are hundreds of core suppliers involved, and there are thousands of suppliers.
The world’s largest cruise ship manufacturers, almost 80% of their suppliers are in their own countries, Italy’s Fincantini only 1% of the complementary products, is purchased from outside Europe.
Although the manufacturing capacity of Chinese supporting companies is certainly no problem, they can almost know nothing about what standards they need to supply to cruise ships.
There are many countries where cruise ships are docked, and they must meet the standards and norms of each country. These must be explored slowly to make it clear.
For domestic luxury cruise ships, building such a large network of suppliers also needs to start from scratch.
4. Why start a cruise?
Even from scratch, China is still optimistic about the localization of large cruise ships. Because there is a huge market behind it.
(As the income level of Chinese people increases, the first global market for cruises will be transferred to China)
Compared with the centuries-old “old players” in Europe and the United States, China’s cruise market has only started in the last decade, but China, which is full of pockets, hopes to become the world’s largest cruise ship in the next 10 years. market. This market includes both the manufacturing industry of cruise ships and the industry of cruise tourism.
(Number of Global Cruise Shipments Delivered in 2013, 2014)
As of the end of 2017, there were 80 orders for global luxury cruise ships, setting a record high. By 2020, the world’s major cruise companies will build 79 luxury cruise ships, which will be a feast of $52 billion for the shipbuilding industry.
However, with the large European cruise construction companies nowadays, the production capacity is obviously not keeping up with demand. The annual capacity of cruise ships with a capacity of over 70,000 tons in Europe is only about 8 ships, and the construction of the cruise ship delivered before 2025 is basically full.
One side is the lack of capacity and the demand is strong. This is one of the reasons why China has built luxury cruise ships in recent years as an important direction for the transformation and upgrading of the shipbuilding industry.
From the perspective of the cruise tourism market. China has become the world’s largest outbound tourism market and the second largest cruise tourism market. In 2018, China received 969 cruise ships and 4.9 million passengers. It is estimated that by 2035, the total number of cruise passengers in China will reach 14 million, making it the world’s largest cruise tourism market with little suspense.
(China currently has a number of cruise home ports in Tianjin, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Haikou, etc., receiving more than a thousand cruise ships in 2016)
It is precisely this rare opportunity that China has begun to vigorously develop the cruise economy, the cruise industry and cruise equipment in recent years. Cruises and cruises, such a large piece of cake, and can drive the development of the entire supporting industry, how can we hand over people?
(In a few years, the revenue of China’s cruise market has soared from 700 million yuan to 6.7 billion yuan)
5. A review of Japanese and Korean cars
Although China has seized the opportunity of the large cruise market, it is not without worry. The failure experience in Japan is a typical example.
In 2016, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries officially announced that it will not be involved in the construction of luxury cruise ships of over 100,000 tons in the future. The reason is that Mitsubishi built a large cruise ship project, a big loss!
In 2011, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries received orders for two large cruise ships. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is too superstitious in its ability, the construction process is difficult, and even a fire occurs, and the construction period is delayed. In the final stage, the two major problems of host failure and noise reduction directly led to the delay of delivery for 3 months.
(February 2015, AIDAprima Cruises, is being armored at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Shipyard)
In the construction of the cruise ship, the package is the biggest problem. The details of the interior design and decoration of the cruise ship, the production of interior furniture, etc., the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ support can not be recognized by the cruise company, can only turn to the headEuropean suppliers and service providers have turned for help, coupled with the sharp depreciation of the yen during construction, and the cost has risen.
In the end, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries could only make a loss of the ship, which resulted in a non-recurring loss of 103.911 billion yen for Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in FY2015. The non-recurring loss in 2013-2015 was as high as 237.671 billion yen.
In addition to Japan, the top three in the global shipbuilding industry, South Korea, has also tried to “curve save the country” into the cruise construction. Of course, the ending is not too good.
On October 19, 2016, the Central District Court of Seoul, South Korea officially announced the sale of all the shares of the top 5 STX marine shipbuildings in the world and 66.7% of STX France. Unfortunately, the last “connector” did not find.
(Korea STX website, the last Korean ship that intends to enter the cruise market is still acquired by Chinese companies)
This is a Korean shipbuilding company that intends to become a global multinational group. It has already bought two major shipyards in Finland and France, and hopes to enter the construction of cruise ships through mergers and acquisitions. However, the way in which South Korea’s “curve” entered the cruise construction industry has not made substantial progress.
China, Japan and Korea are the three giants in the world’s shipbuilding industry, and Japan and South Korea’s failed experience in the construction of large-scale cruise ships and their refusal to give up is enough to see the “pit” of large cruise ships.
6. Large cruise ships have to cut prices
Can China not enter the “pit”? The answer is yes.
Although China is the world’s number one shipbuilding power, it is not a shipbuilding power. By building ships with low added value, Chinese ship companies are not enough to eat, and they are also “poor nutrition.”
Taking a large cruise ship is the only way to increase “nutrition” and transform and upgrade China’s shipbuilding industry.
(The three countries of China, Japan and Korea have recently taken over the global shipbuilding orders in recent years, but there is no breakthrough in the construction of large cruise ships)
China has also seen the failure experience of Japan and South Korea. From the very beginning, it has not been the same as the Japanese and Korean shipping companies. China has chosen a development model similar to nuclear power and high-speed rail, which is “introduction, digestion, absorption and innovation.”
Last year, Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding and Shipbuilding International, China Ship and Ocean Engineering Design Institute under CSSC (708) Joint venture with Shanghai Ship Research and Design Institute, the domestic shipyard and design unit, (China Ship Cruises). Since then, it has formed a cruise operation company with the Carnival (the world’s largest cruise company), and a joint venture with Fincantiny. Tini.
In this way, the design, construction and operation of domestic cruise ships are tied to the interests of foreign giants.
It is very important that several design and construction units in China have relevant experience-
Guangzhou Shipyard has built a number of luxury passenger and passenger ships
Shanghai Shipyard has more than 15 years experience in passenger roll design
708 long-term research on the key technologies of cruise hydrodynamics and large cruise shipsTechnical research of design
In addition, China Resources Dadong, which participates in the domestic cruise project, is the only shipbuilding company with experience in large-scale cruise ship repair and renovation, including “Costida Atlantic” and “Henna” cruise ships.
(It is estimated that by 2035, the total output value of the Shanghai cruise economy will reach 200 billion yuan, accounting for 2.1% of GDP)
The first important investment of CSF Fincantini was to purchase the technology license for the Vista ship type from Fincantini and obtain the design drawings to complete the design of the domestic cruise ship.
In addition to the introduction of design drawings, Fincantini will also transfer key construction techniques for luxury cruises and provide consulting services to circumvent the technical, management and supply chain risks faced by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
Obviously, the model of China’s cooperation and win-win is more and more convenient, and the understanding of localization is becoming more and more pragmatic.
Now, China’s understanding of “independent innovation” has deviated from the one-sided pursuit of localization rate, but emphasizes the control and innovation of products. The counterattack of the Chinese shield machine is the same path.
It is expected that in 2023, domestic large-scale cruise ships will be officially delivered for operation.
Large cruises, but also price cuts.
This article is from WeChat public account:Positive solution (ID:zhengjieclub), the original title: “Let Japan and South Korea eat big losses, it is harder to build than the aircraft carrier: this time China will try it”