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Tiger sniffing note: Few real estate companies can truly achieve accurate insights into policy trends, and many small and medium-sized housing business owners are beginning to choose not to macroscopically Cycle judgment. However, the aircraft carrier is different, they must see the direction and trend as much as possible to reduce the impact of the storm on the aircraft carrier. In this article, Sun Hongbin, who is famous for his courage, has made a simple and direct judgment on the future of real estate, current opportunities and risks, whether the policy is relaxed, and the opportunities for future head-to-door enterprises, and is refined by editors. Worth reading.

Title: Oriental IC, this article is from WeChat public account:Real Estate President’s Internal Reference (ID:dczcnc), Editor: Pan Yongtang, Speaker: Sun Hongbin, Source: Minsheng Bank Real Estate Finance Annual Meeting, speech source from real estate

Judgement 1: Don’t let the economy rely too much on real estate, or “national policy”

The current real estate policy environment is whether the Chinese economy still depends on real estate? This is a national strategy and a national strategy that has risen to a political height. why?

This industry is too big and too important.

• This industry and related industries account for 30% of GDP;

• The industry’s land sales revenue plus tax revenue accounts for 40% of the total fiscal revenue.

• Loans in this industry accounted for 28.9%, plus loans from other industries, which were mortgaged with real estate, were 50%.

So the industry is too important and it has too many resources.

Changing the economy’s excessive dependence on real estate is already a country’s political height and long-term strategic choice. We must understand this regulation.

Judgement 2: “Expect” regulation relaxation? This is unlikely

The regulation of our three years is mainly a sentence, and house prices cannot rise.

You said that the current economic pressure is relatively big, will it still happen? I don’t think so.

The Fourth Plenary Session has already had such a political power: economic growth does not need to be so high, and 4% is quite good.

Everyone remembers the October 2016 limit price. Many people actually misjudged it and felt that:

• The 2017 “two sessions” will be released and the results will not be released.

• There was no release after the 19th National Congress.

• It is said that after the “two sessions” in 2018, it is still not released.

• It’s been the fourth year since I’ve been waiting until today, and I’m still not let go.

The main reason is that this industry is really important, to understand the new situation.

The new situation is this regulation. The first sentence is that money can’t go to real estate. The second sentence is that real estate can’t be used as a tool for economic stimulus. The third sentence is “this round of regulation plus the previous one. Round limit price, this is a long-term behavior.

This is a national political height and a national strategy, so there can be no luck. This round of regulation will basically last a long time.

Judge 3: 16 trillion scale may remain for many years

The overall scale of real estate in the future, we said that more than 60%, in the future will reach more than 80%, reaching 70% in 2030, this space is still quite large.

One is the need for urbanization, and the other is to improve sexual needs. Everyone in your room, 10 around youPeople, there must be 5 people who want to improve, and certainly half of them want to change houses.

Although you can live without changing, you all want to change!

This year is about 16 trillion, and this scale will probably remain for many years. This is a point.

Judgement 4: The change of the main battlefield of the house enterprise: from the increase to the amount of grabbing

There is still a change in the industry. When it comes to the level of fifteen trillion, it will change from an incremental market to a stock market.

In 2007, this industry was three trillion yuan. In 2008, it dropped a little, two trillions.

At the time of 2010, it was four trillions, and by 2011 it was about five trillion.

From 2007 to 2019, it has increased five times.

It has tripled since 2011.

So the developers we have been in have been preempting the increments in these years, there are so many increments, so everyone is better off.

But now, after the present, it is the stock, which is the 15 trillion stocks. Up and down, it is difficult to do this time.

From the rush to increase the amount of grabs, this is actually a particularly big change.

Looking back, the past decade has indeed been very large, from 3 trillion to 15 trillion in 2007, an increase of 5 times, an increase of 12 trillion, 12 trillion what do you mean? The increase is in the global automotive market, and the global automotive market is $2 trillion.

Real estate is doing well these years because of the large increments.

Judgement 5: The structural risk lies in “first- and second-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities”

One more change is that de-stocking in the previous round may be wrong.

Because the original first-line and second-line stocks are very small, this round of destocking basically goes to the first, second and third line stocks, and then the October 2016 limit price, limited to first- and second-tier cities, strong third-tier cities, now There is no more stock, soI found it upside down.

A first- and second-tier cities have no risk by going to stocks and adding caps. They are sold as long as they come out. Therefore, the first and second line of the three lines are often without risk.

The current problem is to squeeze the risk into the bottom line city. In the following four- and five-tier cities, the fifth- and sixth-tier cities, low-line cities have doubled their house prices, and the supply has increased a lot. This is structural risk.

Judgement 6: Strict combination of boxing control, making the industry less risky

Under future debt management, it is almost impossible to increase debt.

Under this kind of management, the leverage of this industry is definitely declining, because you limit the price, the risk of the whole industry is fixed, and after the construction of the total amount is controlled, the leverage ratio is reduced. Any of these adjustments are beneficial. .

Because our inventory is probably in first- and second-tier cities, I think the price will rise, but the land price will rise faster than the house price. So the price limit is good for this industry. Even if there is a bubble, there is no bubble. We are doing it well, at least the risk is small.

And now it’s good, the current regulation has already adjusted the government’s expectations.

The original house price has fallen, the government’s land price does not fall, and the land price that comes out at random will be calculated as a loss.

So the government is slowly lowering its expectations. In turn, the future price limit is to get the risk. The total debt limit has reduced the leverage of this industry, so I think this industry will be even more better.

Judgement 6 “Brand, product, service” is comprehensive competitiveness

The first step, first of all, inventory, if there is a problem with the inventory, it is not comprehensive competitiveness.

Because the inventory of real estate is very troublesome.

• Because it’s hard to earn some money, losing money is especially easy.

• It’s especially difficult to earn a billion, but it’s worth a hundred millioneasily.

• Because of the pile of things after making money, there is nothing after losing money.

So if there is a problem with the stock, the land reserve is not right, and it is expensive. That is basically not to mention the comprehensive competitiveness. The question directly changes to “Can you live?”

The second is brand, product, service, which is a comprehensive competitiveness.

To improve our overall competitiveness, we must also look at the layout and quality of the land, because this industry is divided into two sections, one is the previous investment, the latter is the product, the investment is wrong, what products are done? Losing money, so layout and land storage are very important. Secondly looking at products and services, these are difficult. Then look at the continuous reduction of the debt ratio. We have a comprehensive debt ratio target. We hope that the total debt can be reduced by a small amount, the profit will increase sharply, the sales will increase, and the debt ratio will soon drop.

The third is a firm layout of consumption upgrades, such as cultural travel, entertainment, education, medical care, great health and so on.

We have always done this, there are cultural travel, tourism, our cultural travel is the largest in the country, and we are also doing culture. This is real estate + inside, this layout is for the future. Because entertainment is a big industry, education is a big industry, medical care is a big industry, and old age is also a big industry. Our layout in this area is mainly for five years and ten years later.

Because it’s hard to earn money in front of you. We must be calm and steady, or we must talk about high quality growth.

Judgement 7: M&A solves the risk the fastest, the bank must support the merger

The second suggestion is that you want to support mergers and acquisitions, because mergers and acquisitions are the fastest way to solve risks, there are many risks exposed, but mergers and acquisitions are the fastest to solve the risk.

If you can’t get the money from the bank, basically you will auction it off from the time you defaulted. It takes about four years on average. It takes three years for fast, but three months or half for M&A. It is solved, so M&A is the best way to resolve industry risks. The risk in this industry is economic risk, which is financial risk. Therefore, mergers and acquisitions are a means of mitigating risks, so we must support mergers and acquisitions.

Either it is in terms of quota or M&A, it must be supported.

Judge 8:5 years later TOP5 accounts for about 30% of the industry

I also support the head business, why? Not because I am a head company, because the top five companies in this industry are about 18%. I estimate that in the five years, the top five in this industry can account for 30%. Why?

Because each industry, such as the automotive industry, China’s top five is 51%, the beer industry is 73%, the air conditioning industry is 78%, and the mobile phone industry is 83%. I am talking about the top five. In our industry, the top five are 18%, so in another five years, 30% is not a big problem.

The head business is also good for the stability of the industry. I am talking about the top 100 in the head business, so this is also a suggestion.

This article is from WeChat public account:Real Estate President’s Internal Reference (ID:dczcnc), Editor: Pan Yongtang, Speaker: Sun Hongbin, Source: Minsheng Bank Real Estate Finance Annual Meeting, Source of Speech 壹 Real Estate