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Find out the situation of urban differentiation

The development model of big urbanization has been clearly defined by the central government. The situation of urban differentiation will be very obvious in the second half of the property market. In this situation, real estate in many cities has only residential value and no investment value. Many third- and fourth-tier cities, in the past, the rise in housing prices, a very important factor is driven by the shed reform.

The shed reform will now usher in the last year, and it will be fully completed in 2020. Once the shed reform is no longer needed, the demand for home purchases will fall, and the entire property market will bring a huge test.

What is the goal of this year’s shed reform? How will the shed reform next year be closed? What should we do for these cities that have been erected? Is there a surplus of the house to sell, or to continue to hold, next year is a good time to buy a house in these cities? In the New Year’s speech, I will give you an explanation for this part of the city that relies heavily on the shed, and maybe there will be your city.

The third- and fourth-tier cities are at risk, and the houses in the first- and second-tier cities are sure to buy? Everyone needs to know that China’s per capita housing area has reached 40.8 square meters, and the household ratio is as high as 1.13. The era of Chinese housing shortage has already come to an end, and everyone has entered the era of housing.

On the one hand, there is no shortage of houses. On the other hand, China’s housing prices have reached the highest point in history. Let’s take a look at the price-to-income ratio of the 50 typical cities. The so-called big cities are basically in the forefront, between 15-36. That is to say, in many big cities, a family can’t afford to eat or drink in 15-35 years. Plan to go to daily life consumption, it takes 30-50 years to buy a house.

Although the price-to-income ratio cannot be directly used to measure whether there is a bubble in a city’s housing prices, it does reflect some problems. Should we buy cities with low house price ratios but urban fundamentals? Or buy a city with a strong urban fundamentals but a high ratio of house prices?

The most critical point is that strict regulation continues. Because of the purchase limit, veryMany cities need years of social security to buy a house. Because of the limited sales, many cities need real estate licenses to sell their homes for many years. Because of the limited loans, everyone needs to use their real money to buy real estate.

So, even a lot of high-value cities will not rise as much as they used to. Even among them, the prices of some cities will enter the sideways or even fall in the next, in this situation, what should we do?

Yes, for many years of rising, many cities have accumulated certain risks and bubbles in the property market. At the same time, under the large purchasing power, the new purchasing power has not yet grown. This is the case. Some of the properties in one or two cities will also take a break, and the callback will be adjusted.

However, there will be some cities, under the continuous inflow of population, under the pre-adjustment of housing prices in the early stage, under the strong contradiction between supply and demand, the first to start the property market to pick up, there will still be good in 2020. The increase. And if we want to invest in real estate in 2020, we must focus on this small batch of cities that are the first to pick up, and come to the forefront in the rising cycle.

So, the next 2020 will be a crucial one year, but it will be a complicated one year. In the end, which cities are valuable, but they are also unable to escape the fate of staged decline? Which cities are going to pick up, must we focus on firepower to seize the opportunity to buy decisively? All the answers to these questions will be shared in detail on the year-end show.

Selecting the new district is the next wave of house price dividends

The development of urbanization in China to this day, the development capacity and supporting facilities of the old city of many cities can no longer support the development of the city, so many cities will inevitably expand outward and develop new areas.

Of course, there is still a factor here: the contractor system of the mayor of China’s urban development, the result of a city development is directly related to the performance and promotion of the chief.

So, many city leaders want to make achievements and leave a mark during their tenure, so a big way is to pull investment, engage in infrastructure, and build a new district. Therefore, in China’s 960 square kilometers of land, large and small are filled with more than 3,500 new districts.

According to the population plans of these new districts, what number will eventually be drawn? 3.4 billion people. Is this number horrible? Quite scary. These new districts, which are equivalent to China’s planning, can fit into half of the world’s population. Obviously, the future of new districts in many cities will not develop in the future, and even become the cannon fodder of this urbanization process.

But I can tell you clearly that in the last 10 years of China’s rapid urbanization development, some new districts must be able to develop, surpassing the old city to become the center of the future of the city, the new master, become this The region with the highest increase in urban housing prices. Shanghai Pudong New Area is the pastOne of the most typical cases of sea urbanization development.

It’s just this moment, most of the new districts have not yet been fully formed. It’s not convenient to go to buy a house, but it’s very embarrassing to not buy a house and be afraid of missing the opportunity.

If you can fully understand the development of some new districts, choose to buy some new districts, and at the same time the price is relatively low, you will also get the biggest price increase in the future. This is left for us. The last chance.

But the new district is a double-edged sword. If you choose the wrong one, the future housing price will not increase much, and even the basic supporting facilities will not keep up with it, and it will be inconvenient to live in, even 沦 For the ghost town.

So, how to judge whether the new district will develop in the future will be one of the key themes shared with you in this year’s New Year’s speech. At that time, I will also have a list of value lists for new districts in major cities across the country, with a value of at least 1 million.

Building a property cognition system in multiple dimensions

Buying the house is a three-dimensional analysis process, the process of system decision-making. It involves three dimensions: the selected city, the selected area and the selected project.

Selecting the right city, the most important thing is to look at the fundamentals of the city. This is followed by a series of data: total GDP and growth rate, total population and growth rate, proportion of migrants, urban population housing holdings. Rate, the total amount of financial and foreign currency and growth rate, the total population of primary school students and the growth rate. In this year’s New Year’s speech, I will give you a list of city value rankings, giving everyone a reference to choose a city to buy a house.

Further is to choose the right region and sector. In fact, in the past, this price increase, even in the same city, the difference between different regions and sectors and housing prices is very different. For example, Shenzhen, starting from the rise in housing prices in 15 years, the region with the highest increase is not Nanshan and Futian, but Longhua and Longgang, and the salt field that has been weak in growth has been at the end of this wave of rising house prices, and even I bought a house and didn’t make money.

As for the plate, some sectors have won the top spot in the rise due to the location. Some of the plates are still being superimposed because of the matching of the degree and the subway. In some sectors, because of some hard injuries, the increase is not optimistic, such as Longgang Buji in Shenzhen Luohu. Therefore, the selection of regions and sectors is also to conduct systematic research, involving a series of degrees, business, soil photography, commuting and other factors tracking and model building.

Finally, the choice of projects and products. Everyone should pay attention to a phenomenon. In the second-hand housing market, some residential units are expensive to sell in small units, while those in large-scale units are expensive to sell, which involves the problem of product and sector matching.

The big misunderstanding of the purpose of the option is the mismatch between the project and the product. It is obviously a high-end segment, but you are going to buy those that just need to be reeled; and some plates just need to live in the plate, but you are going to buy a luxury house.Buy a large area. The final outcome is that when your house is going to be in the second-hand market, it is: you can’t afford it, and the local tycoon can’t. Either sell it at a reduced price, or just collect it yourself.

Of course, choosing the wrong project and product requires a lot of attention. How to choose a developer? How to choose matching, the sensitivity of different city buyers to different packages? How to choose a floor plan? Wait, pay special attention to the future young people’s preference for the house, because after 90, after 00, the future is the main force of the pick-up man, what kind of house they like, that is, the house you should pay attention to.

The above three dimensions, the selection of the right city, the selection of the right area and the selection of the right project, the ring is closely linked, once these three can be organically built, it will become a weapon for you to buy a house in the real estate market, no disadvantage.