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The title map is provided in the text. This article is from WeChat public account:Economic Observer (ID: eeoobserver) , Reporter: Ouyang Xiaohong, respondent: former Italian Prime Minister Lamberto Dini

“At that time, in Beijing, bicycles were like rivers and rivers, and there were very few vehicles. Ladies wore dark clothes, bicycle bells clinked, and there were many bicycle teams at the peak of work… This is Beijing in 1985. “On October 18, former Italian Prime Minister, former Treasury Treasury Secretary, former Central Bank Deputy Governor Lamberto Dini (LambertoDini) in Beijing Said in an interview with the Economic Observer.

In 1931, the 88-year-old Dini still remembers the scene when he first visited China. He said that Beijing was very small at that time and the streets were narrow. Now, not only the infrastructure and the old urban construction have changed, but thanks to reform and opening up, China has also become the “locomotive” of the world economy. However, regarding the current 6% GDP growth rate to meet the employment needs of young people, he believes that it takes time to answer, but I believe the Chinese government can find a good response.

In the dialogue with the Economic Observer, Mr. Dini did not swear that the current global economic growth is slowing down and trade frictions are not at home. As for the change and uncertainty of the uncertain era, whether he can see the future through the fog of history, he also talked about his own views.

一

Economic Observer: How many times have you come to China? What is the difference between this time and the last time?

Lamberto Dini: Counting, (I) should have visited China many times. The first time was in 1985. I remember when I came to Beijing, I wasThe identity of the deputy governor of the Bank of Italy was invited by the Chinese Academy of Sciences to give a speech, and the central agency invited me to lecture. It has been 34 years since then, and the city has become wider and wider. In China, we are not only seeing the great changes in the city, but also the rapid economic growth.

Beijing in the 1980s

Economic Observer: Do you still remember the courseware content?

Lamberto Dini: The lecture at the time was “What will the Euro be?” At the time, the euro was not yet available. And “the direction of the European economy” and so on. At that time, some people were not optimistic about the EU, the primary reason is that the European population is aging – it will severely limit the economic development of Europe.

I think that China will inevitably face a series of problems of population aging today. For example, the demographic dividend is gradually decreasing, and the cost of social pensions is increasing. The possible reality is that the growth of the new generation is small and young people contribute less to society – but at least it seems not obvious today. Of course, China currently has a large number of young people. At the same time, a large number of Chinese young people have received a good education. But on the other hand, will this inhibit the Chinese market from providing opportunities for other foreigners to work? The more extreme example is that unless he has a Ph.D. from Harvard University or a special major, some foreigners may not be able to find a suitable job in China.

Economic Observer: What changes have you seen in the Chinese economy? What are the constraints?

Lamberto Dini: After 1992, thanks to Deng Xiaoping’s “general design” of reform and opening up, China’s economy has made a big leap. Undoubtedly, the results of China’s economic reform and opening up over the past 40 years are very important, and it is also part of the turning point of the entire world economy.

Of course, China’s first-step development has also benefited from overseas Chinese investment; in addition, overseas multinational companies have also provided some funding for the Chinese economy that took off, such as technology transfer. Among them, China itself has made contributions. For example, in the field of public education, it has succeeded in cultivating a new generation of young people.Business people, and young people representing the future can empower to build a modern and efficient society.

I have come to China many times, and I have experienced many profound changes, especially the changes of young people – their ability to become weaker and stronger. I remember that in the 1990s, I went to see the Suzhou New Town Development Zone. When interacting with local development zone leaders, an electronics industry company invested US$2 billion in foreign investment to provide at least 1,500 jobs. How many foreign engineers and technicians does this company have? The leaders of the China Development Zone at that time replied: 3 to 5 German professional managers, and other talents originated from China. This is a huge change.

Today China’s industrial manufacturing competitiveness is strong. Take Apple’s foundry as an example. At present, few mobile phone manufacturers in other parts of the world may have the same high-efficiency and complete chain of technical capabilities as China.

In addition, what are the possible limiting factors for the Chinese economy? I think that these young people who have received high public education have very high wages. If high income continues to climb, then outside the high-tech industry, under the low-end technology development model, similar to high wage costs, can Chinese enterprises sustainably sustain it? As a result, there may be some handicrafts moving forward. This is a real threat! Because you have to become a manufacturing power, you must also face high labor costs. However, there is no doubt that China is the fastest growing economy and industry in the world. Today, China, like the United States, is the most important economy in the world.

二

Economic Observer: What do you think of the current global economy and the Chinese economy, as well as trade protectionism?

Lamberto Dini: Although China’s economic development has slowed down recently, GDP growth is still 6%. From the perspective of the global economic situation, it is not too optimistic… It will take time to resolve the trade friction between China and the United States.

In fact, after we resume, we will find that trade frictions, protectionism, and there will be no winners, only losers. As far as trade protectionism is concerned, there are other purposes behind it. The other side wants to limit China’s high technology to prevent its high technology from being exceeded by China. Just as European countries are banned from introducing Chinese technologies such as 5G and Huawei. However, 5G is the development direction, and high-speed transmission of data is very important to the economy and society. This should not be underestimated. In addition, it may also aim to disrupt China’s supply chain so that it cannot develop with high quality, and China’s supply chain enterprises will be relocated to Vietnam and South Korea.

Of course, the current GDP growth rate of 6% is not lower than that of other countries, but for China,Is it enough? After all, China has a large labor force, they need employment, unlike mature economies like Europe, they don’t need as much manual employment – ​​they only need low growth to meet economic development needs. For example, for Europe, GDP growth of around 1.5% is not easy; for the United States, if the growth rate is 2.5% and 2.4%, then employment is good. Of course, some countries, such as Vietnam, also have good GDP growth, but their economic volume will not affect the world.

Economic Observer: What happened to the world economy? What is China’s role in the global value chain?

Lamberto Dini: I think the trend of great development is weakening after the global economic crisis in 2007 and 2008. The world may enter a recession, at least a slow period of growth. So how can we solve the problem of slow growth? Only two countries in the world are able to provide new growth momentum without causing a lot of inflation, namely Germany and China. The international trade of these two countries is a surplus and a surplus.

Thus, it is not difficult for us to understand that the Chinese government will adopt a more economically soothing way to promote development or steady development, such as the central bank providing appropriate liquidity and fiscal policy bias. I believe the Chinese government will find a good way.

So, what other countries in the world, especially those in developing countries, want China to be like? I think they are not willing to see the depreciation of the renminbi, but hope that the renminbi will be stable and that China will achieve high growth – because the fast-growing Chinese economy will enhance its economy. In terms of currency stability, Americans also hope so. Among the global value chain roles, China is the locomotive of the world economy. If the growth rate is too low, it may affect or drag down other economies.

But in any case, China has its own grand plan, like the “Belt and Road”, the Italian government is very supportive, although it has received some resistance from the outside world.

Economic Observer: When it comes to the Belt and Road, Italy has signed a memorandum with China, and it is also the first country to sign. How do you see the Belt and Road? How can it make the development of Sino-Italian cooperation space?

Lamberto Dini: The “One Belt, One Road” project led by the Chinese government is very important, from Xi’an to Rome, Italy(more than 6,400 in total) Kilometers, covering 65 countries). Of course, Europe is of great interest because there will be huge commodity exchanges between China and countries along the route. The win-win system is based on the commodity exchange and economic development of both parties. It is hoped that the cooperation between Chinese and Italian companies will not only be limited to traditional industries, but also include cooperation in the field of science and technology.

Economic Observer: In addition, how do you see the global destiny community and the world multi-polar?

Lamberto Dini: It’s too early to talk about the global destiny community today. Many times, I have to say that now more countries in the world are considering: China may be like a strong intervention and enter other economies; but both sides can make a profit.

The community of destiny of good hopes is not something that can be achieved tomorrow. It takes a long time to work. Of course, at the moment I don’t have enough conditions and resources to describe its future appearance, and it is difficult to predict its direction.

According to public reports, PricewaterhouseCoopers predicted the top 10 economies in the world in 2050, ranking: China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Among them, the total size of China’s economy is about 58 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 20%, India and the United States are 44 trillion US dollars and 34.1 trillion US dollars. This shows that emerging economies will continue to develop rapidly and the development model will be diversified.

It is undeniable that multi-polarization of the world and multi-polarization of the international pattern are also an inevitable result of the multi-party power game.

Economic Observer, November 11, 2019, 33 editions

three

Economic Observer: The Brexit has made new progress. What do you think of it, and what effect does it have?

Lamberto Dini: I think that Brexit was born at the wrong time. Former British Prime Minister David Cameron solved the divorce and stayed in Europe for the sake of once and for all, and resorted to the referendum. He thought he could win, so the UK could stay in the EU. But this is not the case. The result of the vote is “52% to 48%” and decided to leave the EU.

RealThe mistake is that the old British conservatism voted for the vote of (although the percentage is small). Look! It’s not that young people are not cities, not Scotland, not Northern Ireland, and Old England wants to leave Europe. Of course, Brexit may traumatize the traditional British economic sector.

Conservatives say that as an old British company, factories are closed and employees are largely unemployed. Unemployment is a very painful thing for these 50-year-olds and 55-year-olds. They pushed the responsibility to the UK but could not push it to the EU. It is not the EU that causes their unemployment, but “globalization” has caused unemployment, which is an important reason. This is also one of the reasons for the so-called British rural areas, urban marginalized areas, against the big cities of London and internationalization. London’s wages are much higher than in other places. Old Englishmen, country gentlemen and some ordinary people hate the city, but this is really a mistake!

The conservative Conservatives still stubbornly believe that Britain is still the center of the empire, but the empire is no longer there. Traditional British gentlemen even believe that Brexit will make them richer. No, they will become poorer. These Conservatives made the wrong choice. The UK’s main trading partner is the European Union, not the Commonwealth.

Economic Observer: What do you think of the EU-UK integration?

Lamberto Dini: I have represented Italy in the drafting and setting up of the last three EU agreements. I feel that the British always brake on the EU during the EU integration process. In fact, for the (UK) Brexit, most people in Europe will feel good, and finally have to go.

It is true that the UK has basically had a negative impact in the process of blending with other EU countries. The United Kingdom has never agreed to the concept of the United Nations in Europe. It only hopes to unify the market – the common market of assets and services.

For example, the British opposed the EU’s common defense strategy at the time, opposed the EU organization to establish its own finance minister, the director of the economic committee, and these were our recommendations at the time. At that time, the EU Constitution was drafted by Giscard Destin (former French President, known as the “father of the EU Constitution”), but drafted In the process, the UK has been singing the opposite. Yes, at that time, apart from the British, we all believed that Europe should unite all economic, financial, political, and military forces.

Of course, we are not against Brexit (Brexit). If it really wants to leave the EU, it can only send blessings.

Economic Observer: Does Brexit have a bad demonstration effect, will Italy follow suit? In June this year, it was reported that the Italian government issued a mini national debt (Italy) Nor will it issue a mini national debt, which is impossible, and the dangers and obstacles have been removed.

four

Economic Observer: What do you think about the outlook for the euro?

Lamberto Dini: The formation of the euro was done internally. The idea was to make a joint currency and build a coalition. On January 1, 1999, the EU officially launched the euro. In the 1990s, people hoped that after the euro came out, it would become a political union, that is, become a coalition government. There are many reasons for not achieving the goal today.

One of the reasons is that the EU’s eastward expansion has slowed the process steps of the coalition government. We see that from December 9 to 10, 1994, the leaders of the 12 countries of the European Union and Austria, Sweden and Finland who are about to join the European Union have improved the EU mechanism in Essen, Germany, and promoted economic growth and the EU’s expansion into Eastern Europe. Consistent. On January 1, 1995, Sweden, Finland, and Austria formally joined the European Union, and the EU member states expanded to 15. At that time, many leaders of the EU countries believed that the eastward expansion could enhance their livelihood process. Therefore, there is no choice to make deeper connections at the bottom but to develop outward. So even though the EU has the euro, no other entity in the economy can dominate it.

However, the euro is very stable, and the euro’s own mechanism has prevented inflation. First, monetary policy stabilizes market prices, and then taxes also limit the emergence of deficits. Just as the EU countries only import inflation, for example, if the price of overseas oil and crude oil increases, we have to pay more for oil, which is passive inflation. I also said that I was in the lectures of relevant institutions in China.