At the 2019 New Brokerage Summit, Shell released a total of six major products, making the platform a “new brokerage service accelerator.”
In Liu Cixin’s most famous science fiction novel “Three-body”, the law of dark forests is the most basic principle of survival in the universe. Every civilization faces external threats and must hide itself and eliminate other civilizations. The main task of the face-facers is to turn their behavior into unpredictable probability events, transmitting a lot of false information to the three-body civilization, thus hiding the weakness of their own planet.
The Law of the Dark Forest is actually an upgraded version of the Law of the Forest, which is often used in commercial warfare. Since the emergence of the real estate agency industry in China around 2000, there are a large number of “dark forest rules” practitioners in this field, who provide false information, squeeze opponents for high profits, hide real estate, and set obstacles in the transaction chain.
The main reason for this phenomenon is that the real estate is in a period of rapid development in the past 20 years. From 2000 to 2018, the transaction volume of the newly built commercial housing market has increased from 400 billion yuan to about 15 trillion yuan. Mainly the seller’s market logic, the biggest demand of consumers is “buy up”, the intermediary uses this, and uses the information difference to earn profits.
Second, real estate transactions are treated as “probability events” because it is a low-frequency transaction. Brokers pursue user increments rather than paying attention to the user’s consumption experience. As long as the transaction is completed, it will be motivated. Conversely, erroneous behavior during the transaction is punished as a probability event.
However, these two conditions that currently support the law of the jungle are changing. Zuo Hui, chairman of the shell-seeking house, said, “It’s been 2020, and real estate has gone through 22 years since it was changed in 1998. To be frank, today’s time, industry and market are undergoing fundamental changes. May affect the future career of millions of people across the industry.”
Chairman of Shell Finding House Zuo Hui
Real estate is still an industry that makes big money, but it is no longer an industry that makes quick money
Zuo Hui judged that the real estate market will end its rapid growth trend in the next five years and become a “slow and long” track, but the overall scale will remain above 10 trillion, while stocks The transaction volume of the market will double from the current 6-7 trillion yuan, and the transaction structure of the entire real estate market will fundamentally change.
In the process of market changes, “the stage of Chinese consumers’ religious belief in buying a house has passed,” Zuo Hui said.There are fewer and fewer customers who are just buying the first purchase. “The trading cycle has become longer and the market tends to be stable. The overall judgment is that the houses in the market are not in short supply, and consumers “have to pick.” They not only pick the house, but also pick the service provider.
In the future, real estate companies will lose the basic soil of high turnover in the past. The decision-making period of buying a house will lengthen. It also means that the seller’s market has begun to turn to the buyer’s market. The role of consumers in the transaction chain will become more and more important. They need The amount of information and service quality has also increased.
To give power and choice to consumers, Peng Yongdong believes that let consumers drive the power of choice, “vote” to brokers and brands, and participate in the platform’s business opportunity allocation and evaluation system. With consumers as the core, building a business ecosystem can cross the industry cycle. “If you can’t do this, time can’t stand on our side.”
In the brokerage industry, there are differences in the future business development model. Some companies believe that the second-hand housing market is in an incremental phase, and the market has not substantially cooled down, so the business model of real estate brokers does not need to change. Zuo Hui and Peng Yongdong believe that the industry ecology has changed, and the ability to judge and adjust the future trends is more important than the experience accumulated in the past. In the consumer-centric market, the value orientation based on the broker’s own interests and corporate profit targets has to be eliminated. The consumption scenarios and consumer experiences need to be evolved. Enterprises need to build transactions that cause “good services” to occur in large numbers. Chain and business model.
Let’s be better
At the 2019 New Brokerage Summit, Peng Yongdong said, “I went to the Kaihuaqiao School a few days ago to attend the opening ceremony. I have a little guilty.” This project of investing 1 billion yuan took two and a half years in internal decision-making. Time has been postponed several times because there were many “important things to do” at the beginning of the shell. “I have a reflection in 2019. Today we are not enough to invest in this industry, including the security of the brand and the store owner. The investment is not enough.”
Peng Yongdong presents a new economic declaration at the 2019 New Economic Summit
Shells established a basic “ruler” in 2019: to give more support to good brokers and stores, and to allow “poor services” to enter the elimination mechanism.
Although Zuo Hui said that the growth rate of shells exceeded his expectations, as of October, the number of brands reached 226, and more than 32,000 connected stores. But above the scale, Shell is planning to establish a selection mechanism.