October Shanghai Market Analysis Report: “Silver Ten” Absence The market continues to be under pressure
Overview
Policy: The central bank’s Shanghai headquarters issued a document to support the reform and opening up of the Pudong New Area; the Lingang New Area released a series of policies to promote industrial development “1+4”, and 15 biomedical key projects were signed simultaneously.
Land: The supply rose, and the transaction fell. In October, a total of 11 commercial sites were sold. Among them, Shui On Land competed for 4 towns in Xulong Panlong Village with a total price of 3.881 billion yuan.
New House: In October, Shanghai’s new housing market supply and transaction terminals both fell back. The cumulative new supply was 417,000 m2, down 36.1% from September, with a cumulative turnover of 442,000 m2, down 36.3% from the previous month. The average transaction price was 56,100/ M2, up 6.1% from the previous month.
Second-hand housing: The overall cooling rate of the second-hand housing market in Shanghai was obvious in October. A total of 16,131 sets were sold, a decrease of 20% from the previous month. The transaction area was 1.266 million square meters, a decrease of 21% from the previous month. The turnover was 47 billion, a decrease of 23% from the previous month. The average transaction price was 37,000 yuan/square meter, down 2.3% from the previous month.
Policy News: The new district in Lingang is getting better policy
On October 17, the Shanghai Headquarters of the People’s Bank of China and the Pudong New Area Government jointly studied and formulated the “Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for the Reform and Opening up of the Pudong New Area and Re-starting to Achieve High-Quality Development in the New Era”, and took the lead in supporting the opening measures and supporting the construction. Provide guidance on internationally competitive new highlands and prevent and resolve financial risks.
On October 18th, the Administrative Committee of Lingang New Area of China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone issued a total of 16 policies to promote industrial development, and concentrated on the development of integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, biomedicine and aerospace. The industry has a total of 40 support measures. In addition, there are 15 key biomedical projects signed, involving a total investment of over 7 billion yuan.
China Real Estate Data Research Center believes that the new area of Lingang, as an important carrier for the country to expand its openness and deep integration into economic globalization, will release a new round of policy dividends after the release of the “1+4” industrial policy. Inspire innovation and enhance regional creativity and competitiveness.
Land market: supply rose, turnover fell, and Ryan seized 4 urban homes
According to China Net Real Estate Data Research Center, in October Shanghai’s land market provided a total of 13 commercial land, with a total area of 959,000 square meters, including 8 homesteads, with a total construction area of 358,000 square meters, an increase of 17% from the previous month; On the other hand, in October, a total of 11 commercial sites were sold, a decrease of 4 from the previous month, with a total construction area of 1.238 million square meters and 6 homesteads, with a total construction area of 319,000 square meters, a decrease of 62.5% from the previous month.
Details of the land use for land use in the Shanghai Land Market in October
From the distribution of the land parcels, Qingpu was the main transaction area, and a total of 7 plots were sold. Among them, Shui On Land has won 4 towns in Xulong Panlong Village with a total price of 3.881 billion yuan. The average floor price is 21,800 square meters. It is expected to bring 1700 suites to some extent and improve the residential housing in the district to some extent. Supply scarcity status.
New housing market: supply and demand double drop, “Silver 10” is deserted
In the supply and demand of the new housing market, the Shanghai new housing market failed to continue the upward trend of the previous market in October. Both the supply and the transaction side fell back. Although it showed a stagnation at the end of the month, it was still difficult to keep the “Silver Ten” cold. . According to the statistics of China Real Estate Data Research Center, the total new supply of commercial housing in the city was 417,000 m2, down 36.1% from September, with a cumulative turnover of 442,000 m2, down 36.3% from the previous month. The average transaction price was 56,100/m2, up 6.1% from the previous month. .
Weekly supply and demand situation in Shanghai new housing market in October
From the opening situation of residential projects, a total of 17 projects were obtained for the whole month, 19 projects entered the market, and a total of 5,834 suites were sourced. The average rate of de-conversion on the opening day was 48%, and the market differentiation was more obvious. Nearly half of the projects outside the outer ring are more than 50%, such as Baoli Yunshang, Vanke Sky City, etc., because of the advantages of supporting, brand and other popular sales, the rest of the projects such as the universe Jin Jinfu, Country Garden Phoenix, etc. due to location In the remote, the performance of de-transformation is poor.
The transaction price and new year-on-year increase of new houses in various regions of Shanghai in October (unit: yuan/m2)
In terms of the transaction price of new homes, the price fluctuations in Shanghai market in October were relatively small, up slightly by 1% from the previous month, and the overall stability remained stable. In Jiading area, due to the entry of high-priced projects such as Baoliyun, the average price rose more obviously, and the price fluctuations of other regions remained within 10%.
TwoHandroom market: the market is cooling down, and the transaction is falling again
In October, the Shanghai second-hand housing market fell, and the overall cooling rate was obvious. According to the statistics of China Real Estate Data Research Center, in October, a total of 16,131 second-hand houses were sold in Shanghai, down 20% from the previous month. The transaction area was 1.266 million square meters, down 21% from the previous month. The turnover was 47 billion, down 23% from the previous month. The average transaction price was 37,000. / square meter, down 2.3% from the previous month.
The volume of second-hand housing transactions in various regions of Shanghai in October (unit: set)
From the perspective of regional transactions, Pudong New Area ranked first in the city, and Yangpu ranked first in the downtown area. The transaction volume of each region has declined to varying degrees, and the general regional decline rate has reached more than 20%. Songjiang and Fengxian have the most obvious declines, reaching 30%. In terms of average transaction price, the average price of Changning, Jiading and Minhang increased slightly, and the average price of other regions decreased with the decrease. Among them, the decline of Qingpu and Xuhui is more obvious, reaching 5-10%.
After the market judgment: “Golden September and Silver 10” were absent in succession, the transaction may be difficult to reverse
As the “Golden Nine” and “Silver Ten” were absent, the Shanghai market continued to turn cold, and the transaction volume was significantly reduced. In the last two months of the end of the year, it is expected that there will be a wave of concentrated pushes in the open market, and the market supply may usher in a wave of volume growth. However, the adjustment of the market may not be relaxed.