In the opinion of many experts, for the Chinese express delivery market, the market of low-price competition will sooner or later resume rationality, and the upward trend is the final direction. Standing in the middle of the two modes of Yiwu and Shanghai, how should we choose? This is the choice that cities that still expect to develop the express delivery industry and promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises must face.
Editor’s note: This article is from Daily Economic News author: Yang abandon Africa, the authorized reprint
Today at zero, the “Double Eleven” curtain was pulled up again.
The number growth in successive years may be a bit numb, but the huge flow brought by the “double battlefield” “battlefield” has become an annual “show” in the e-commerce and logistics industry.
Also joined the cities of the “war situation” early, and it is even more “smell”. Uncle Cheng noticed that many provinces and cities had shown “muscles” before the “Shengdian” began, and they all publicly expected the “double eleven” city express delivery.
After the search, the forecast data from Sichuan, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Shaanxi and other cities as well as Hangzhou, Xiamen and other cities are very conspicuous. The number of over 100 million yuan shows the enthusiasm of “joining the war” everywhere.
Image Source: Screenshot of the page
Before entering the “prepare for war” status, there are couriers in each city. According to the “Double Eleven” hot industry big data released by 58 cities, enterprises in Beijing, Chengdu and Shanghai are among the top three in terms of demand for couriers. Among them, Shanghai gave the highest average wage, reaching 9145 yuan. For couriers, jobs in Shenzhen, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai are the most concerned.
No matter which level, the impact of “Double Eleven” on the city can be enormous.
One of the reasons is that the city’s demand for the development of the logistics industry is heating up.
In September, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Transport jointly issued the “Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Construction of the National Logistics Hub in 2019” to determine the list of the first batch of national logistics hubs. A total of 23 logistics hubs were selected.
Xie Yurong, director of the Transportation Service and Logistics Research Office of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute, has revealed that all localities recognize the importance of national logistics hubs and the enthusiasm for applications is high.The competition is also fierce.
For the express delivery industry, which is experiencing rapid development in the logistics industry, “Double Eleven” is the best time to accept. How will each city answer this “question paper”?
Shanghai, the price increase in Yiwu
On the eve of the “Double Eleven”, the State Post Bureau released the operation of the postal industry in the first three quarters. In the case of almost no major changes in the city rankings, those very few changers are more telling.
Data Source: National Post Office Finishing Cartography: Urban Evolution
From the point of view of express delivery business, Guangzhou is still taking the role of its manufacturing and logistics center to “take the lead”, together with the surrounding manufacturing market and Taobao Village, so that the functions of Guangzhou warehouse and cargo sorting center are outstanding, and This forms a cluster effect. In fact, the express delivery business of Dongguan and Jieyang ranked in the top ten within two years, and to a certain extent also boosted the status of Guangzhou “Express Delivery Market”.
Among the top 5, Jinhua is the only prefecture-level city on the list. Among the top 10, it was also the fastest growing city in two years, and rose from the third place last year to the second place with a growth rate of 66.5%.
Yiwu supports Jinhua’s express delivery industry almost by itself. In the first half of this year, Yiwu accounted for 1.966 billion yuan in Jinhua’s 2.36 billion express delivery. The reason is self-evident: Yiwu, which is a small commodity market, naturally needs a large amount of merchandise to match the amount of express delivery.
Shanghai is more complicated than Jinhua’s growth. On the one hand, it is the only city in the top 10 cities with negative growth in express delivery, but if you compare the revenue of express delivery business, Shanghai’s performance is very bright – not only continue to sit firmly in the first place, but also achieve high growth, from 10 billion yuan Only a footstep.
Data Source: National Post Office Finishing Cartography: Urban Evolution
This is in line with the courier salary of 58 city statistics. Some people have analyzed before, because the main express delivery companies at home and abroad will be headquartered in Shanghai, the headquarters economyThe advantage makes Shanghai’s overall express revenue still rise against the trend in the case of a decline in total express delivery.
According to the data released by the Shanghai Post Bureau, in the first three quarters, the three indicators of Shanghai’s co-city, off-site and international Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan express business revenues all declined, and other factors played a decisive role in the increase in Shanghai express delivery revenue.
Xu Yong, chief consultant of China Express Information Network, said that there are many reasons for the growth of Shanghai Express business revenue. “It may be due to payment, collection, storage, packing, and even cold chain. The value-added service of the express delivery industry has promoted the development of express delivery.”
It is worth noting that Jinhua and Shanghai present two distinct growth models. This difference is even more pronounced if the city’s single-item income is calculated.
Data Source: National Post Office Finishing Cartography: Urban Evolution
In the top 10 cities in terms of express delivery business, the income of single-pieces in Shenzhen, Suzhou, Jieyang and Yiwu decreased year-on-year. Compared with the other three cities, the decline of 25.05% in Yiwu can be called “huge”. Compared with the single-digit growth rate of other cities, Shanghai has experienced a sharp increase of 33.9% compared with the single-digit growth rate of other cities. The growth rate is far ahead.
From the Shanghai where the sub-indicators have been announced, it is clearer that the price trend is rising. Take the data of September this year as an example: the single-piece income of the two cities in the same city and the other places showed a slight decline. At the same time, the international, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan businesses increased from 51.8 yuan to 59.1 yuan last year. International business has become one of the main reasons for the increase in single-piece income. .
Hopes and Traps for “Low-Line Cities”
From the national situation, the single-piece income has decreased from 12.2 yuan in the first three quarters of last year to 12.0 yuan in the first three quarters. Why is Shanghai still able to rise while the country is falling?
Express industry expert Zhao Xiaomin believes that in Shanghai, regional imbalance development has promoted changes in the express delivery industry. In the downtown areas such as Huangpu and Yangpu, the rising land and transportation costs have caused the express delivery companies to move outwards. Thanks to the relatively close distance between Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, Changning and Qingpu have become the main bases of express delivery companies. A migration route from the central city to the suburbs and even the provinces has become the mainstream of Shanghai Express.
“Shanghai has actually appeared in the express stratification.” Xu Yong concluded –
The value-added service function with higher added value becomes a more important responsibility for the courier companies staying in the main city of Shanghai. They also makeIn Shanghai, while the total amount of express delivery fell, revenues rose.
In the wider second- and third-tier cities, the impact of changes in the industrial pattern is more pronounced. On the eve of the “Double Eleven”, PwC released a report predicting that although the growth of sales during the “Double Eleven” period may slow down this year, the huge consumption potential of “low-tier cities” will be released. This means that these cities will become the “main battlefield” of the new round of express war.
According to the data of the first three quarters of this year, among the top 10 cities in terms of express delivery business, the cities in Jieyang, Jinhua, Dongguan and other cities have higher dependence on the express delivery industry (export business income/regional GDP). In the forefront, the express delivery industry has a great impact on the overall development of the city’s economy.
Data Source: National Post Office Finishing Cartography: Urban Evolution
Being in front of these cities is both an opportunity and a challenge. Jinhua is clearly at the forefront.
According to the local media “Jinhua Daily”, “In Yiwu, almost every merchant is paying attention to express delivery”, and this market environment, on the one hand, makes Yiwu sit on the express “national second” position, another But it has brought about a serious “price war.”
If a single express price difference is 1 cent, it may cause a profit difference of several hundred thousand yuan a year, which means that the price advantage is bound to be amplified here, becoming the strongest competitive means of express market possession.
After media reports, in the first half of this year, Yiwu Express “price war” entered the most intense moment. The small express delivery company went bankrupt overnight and the large express delivery company could not even pay the salary; it lost 600 million in 9 months, and it became common in this magical market.
How did the Yiwu “price-for-money” market generate?
In Xu Yong’s view, the huge volume of shipments in the developed small commodity market has made merchants have a very bargaining power, and express delivery companies have to “broken their arms for survival”. The low-cost express delivery enterprises further form a “siphon effect” that attracts merchants, and thus continues to develop cyclically.
But this development model is clearly not sustainable. Just before the “Double Eleven”, Yiwu Express Company collectively raised prices, faced with urgent delivery demand, and the merchants fell into a situation that was difficult to negotiate. In the past, the foreign e-commerce merchants who moved the warehouse to the “Express Delivery Price” were even Have the meaning of moving away.
It is worth noting that this wave of price increases has spread to more cities. After receiving the collective price increase of Hangzhou, Wenzhou, Jiaxing, Jinhua and other places, Zhejiang ProvinceOn November 6, the Market Supervision Bureau held a warning meeting on the alleged monopolistic behavior of the province’s express delivery industry.
In the opinion of many experts, for the Chinese express delivery market, the market of low-price competition will sooner or later resume rationality, and the upward trend is the final direction. Standing in the middle of the two modes of Yiwu and Shanghai, how should we choose? This is the choice that cities that still expect to develop the express delivery industry and promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises must face.