Under the influence of various factors, the whole 2019 is a year for semiconductor companies to resist the pressure.
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “Semiconductor Industry Watch” (ID: Icbank), author Du Qin DQ.
In 2019, the global semiconductor industry was in a wave of clouds. Some people were busy going to inventory without cost. Some people encountered out of stock problems! Passive devices that have been in short supply have suffered a downturn in the first half of the year, and agents have faced reshuffles; the entire storage market has also plummeted, and the performance of the top three storage companies has plummeted; even the most promising cars and industries Also becoming the X factor, Infineon said it is feeling the impact of weak global auto demand and will not improve in the short term.
According to Gartner’s forecast, the global semiconductor industry’s total revenue in 2019 will be 429 billion US dollars, down 9.6% from 475 billion in 2018. Ben Lee, senior principal research analyst at Gartner, said: “The trade dispute between the United States and China, as well as the slowdown in major applications such as smartphones, servers and personal computers, is pushing the global semiconductor market to its lowest level since 2009.”
In this global semiconductor environment, there are many chips that are facing the shortage of goods. On the eve of the 5G outbreak, only a handful of 5G chip manufacturers handed over satisfactory answers; the hot TWS headset market caused the TWS Bluetooth chip to be out of stock; CMOS image sensor sales hit a record high, CIS is now out of stock; but this year CPU Out-of-stocks are gradually alleviating, and the performance of MOSFET manufacturers is booming.
Under the influence of various factors, the entire 2019 is a year for semiconductor companies to resist the pressure.
5G chip out of stock due to “difficult to produce”
According to IHS Markit, the IC market will decline by 12.8% this year, but by 2020 it will grow by 5.9% due to the emergence of 5G. Len Jalinek, senior director of semiconductor manufacturing at IHS Markit, said: “Every market downturn will end with the arrival of some innovative technology or product. New technologies and innovative products will always stimulate market demand.” These innovations include, for example, the Internet and iPone. Now this character is converted to 5G. 5G will break the boundaries of the high-tech industry, and new communication standards will affect all aspects of society and stimulate new activities in the overall economy, which in turn will drive demand for semiconductors.
But looking back at the entire industry chain, 5G chip makers can hand over a handful of satisfactory answers, and Apple’s A-series chips do a lot of things, why are you late?G chip, Intel also announced the launch of 5G baseband research and development this year, is the development threshold of 5G chip really so high?
Yes, the development of 5G chips is inseparable from the two key factors of long-term technology accumulation + high investment. The 5G chip is more complicated and more costly than the 4G in design and process. The cost is also higher. Therefore, only a small number of players can stay in this war of fighting for technology and speed. This also makes the 5G chip stronger. The ecological environment in which the weak are eliminated. Now in this battle, with the withdrawal of Intel, the global 5G pattern has basically taken shape, leaving only five of Qualcomm, Samsung, MediaTek, Huawei, and Ziguang.
In terms of 5G chips, China is undoubtedly in the forefront. There are powerful Huawei 5G multi-mode terminal chips Barong 5000 and 5G SoC chips Kirin 990 series, followed by the purple light show of the Ivy 510, MediaTek also The riveting force is 5G. In September this year, Samsung also released the new 5G mobile processing platform Exynos980. In contrast, Apple and Qualcomm have fallen behind.
This year Apple iPhone 11 has no 5G chip, so there is no 5G. Previously, Apple’s process of purchasing 5G chips from Qualcomm and Samsung hit the wall. In the 3G and 4G era, Qualcomm, 5G suddenly slowed down. It is reported that Qualcomm supports SA’s next-generation baseband X55 large-scale market to wait until next year; and Samsung to supply Due to insufficient capacity, Apple rejected the purchase of Exynos 5100 5G baseband chips.
It’s a must, Apple has to research its own chips. Although Apple acquired Intel’s baseband business, according to a report by Fast Company, one of the most influential business magazines in the United States, “Apple plans to be in less than three years. Inside, release its own 5G modem chip.” The report also said, “Even if Apple acquired Intel’s modem business for $1 billion, the time is very tight.”
TWS Bluetooth chip is out of stock due to “too hot”
At 0:00 on October 30, 2019, Apple released a third-generation AirPods, AirPods Pro wireless headset, on its official website. It supports active noise reduction and is priced at 1999 yuan. A large number of users buy, Apple’s official website shows that the delivery date of AirPods Pro after purchase is extended to 2-3 weeks, which means that the official website will be out of stock for a long time.
According to IDC data, 2019Q2 true wireless accounted for 66% of China’s headset market shipments, China’s true wireless headset shipments for several consecutive quarters year-on-year growth rate of more than 100%. It is enough to see that in 2019, there are more than just mobile phones in the consumer electronics field. TWS Bluetooth headsets also occupy a very important position. At the same time, chip vendors of TWS Bluetooth headsets are also busy.
According to relevant industry sources, the currentThe TWS Bluetooth headset chip has reached the stage of killing red eyes. The chip suppliers Zhuhai Jieli and Zhongke Lanxun’s TWS Bluetooth headset chips are currently out of stock, and this situation will not be alleviated until December this year.
This “magic case” triggered by Apple AirPods has led to the brutal competition in the Chinese chip market. The TWS Bluetooth chip has even reached a price of two yuan. This should start from the low-key release of 6936D, the unit price of 1.6RMB, D version of AAC and 6mA power consumption makes this Bluetooth chip directly compete with similar competitors (Ruiqi, Luoda, the original equivalent power consumption unit price 0.8-1.6 US dollars) opened a position, since the price war began to kick off. Under the madness of a large number of solution providers and terminals, the 6936D4 chip is already mad in the market.
According to the latest report of foreign investment in Asia, the hot wireless Bluetooth headset (TWS) in the past two years is facing fierce market competition and will go to the Red Sea in a short time. In their report, they pointed out that the TWS chip is currently facing price erosion and market competition, and the risk continues to expand until it can not be ignored. In their view, the continued penetration of mainland manufacturers is a key factor.
According to Counterpoint Research, by 2020, global true wireless headset market shipments are expected to reach 129 million units. By 2021, the global true wireless headset market is expected to reach $27 billion. Peter Richardson, research director at Counterpoint Research, said: “2019 will be a year in which audio products will become an important market. During the year, major technology companies are expected to drive innovation in true wireless headset devices. By 2021, true wireless audible devices The global market value is expected to reach $27 billion.”
The TWS headset inflection point has arrived, and the Android camp is constantly pouring in. The company launched MCSync technology in early 2019, and AB1536 became a popular chip. Qualcomm’s TWS+ is a long-awaited call, and the QtoQ ecosystem is launched. In September 2019, Huawei released the self-developed Kirin A1 chip, and the self-developed dual-channel transmission technology showed that Huawei has taken a new step in positioning the TWS headset. The next generation of Bluetooth technology 6.0 may surprise the industry. Coupled with the continuous popularity of Huaqiang North, it continues to break through the ceiling of shipments. In the future, the global market for TWS will reach 150 billion yuan, and the current feast is just beginning.
CIS is now out of stock
According to the latest data from IHS Market, the camera market is still growing in 2019 despite the decline in the global smartphone market. Considering that the image sensor size is increasing by 40%-50%, in addition, the camera is also upgraded from 16MP to 48MP or even 64MP, so that the total demand for related wafers will increase by about 50% in 2019.
With the continuous increase in demand for automotive electronics, security surveillance, artificial intelligence and other emerging areas, it has also opened up new growth space for the camera industry. According to industry sources, CIS chips (CMOS image sensors) have begun to appear out of stock.
At present, the main shortage of CIS chips is mainly based on the products used in smart phones. Looking back at the mobile phone manufacturers’ actions this year, Apple’s three-shot, Huawei mate30’s four-shot, and end-users have made their efforts on the camera. Undoubtedly increased the supply requirements for CIS chips. As the three-camera/four-camera solution was quickly adopted by the market, CIS vendors such as Sony, Samsung, Howe Technology and Hynix expanded their production capacity to compete for market share.
According to ANDTECH’s recent reports, Sony revealed this week that as smartphone manufacturers adopt multi-sensor cameras and larger sensors, we expect demand for image sensors to continue to grow since the next fiscal year. In response to this strong demand, Sony will further increase the space utilization efficiency of existing plants and increase the capacity target at the end of March 2021 from 130,000 pieces per month to 138,000 pieces per month.
At the same time, the company will build a new semiconductor factory to increase the production of its CMOS sensors as part of a broader effort to grow the demand for these products. The company will build a new plant at the Nagasaki Technology Center and expects it to actually increase the production of CMOS wafers.
According to previous data from ICinsights, shipments of CMOS image sensors will increase by 11% in 2019, reaching a record 6.1 billion globally. Then the global economy is expected to enter a recession, and will grow by 9% to 660 in 2020. One hundred million, partly because of the friction between the United States and China. In 2018, CMOS image sensor revenue increased by 14% to $14.2 billion. In 2017, it increased by 19%. Since 2011, sales of CMOS image sensors have reached new highs every year, and continuous records are expected to continue until 2023, when sales will reach $21.5 billion.
In the next few years, the demand for CMOS sensors will grow, for several reasons: not just two smartphones (for main cameras and self-timer cameras), but three or more The camera module; and the smartphone’s sensors are getting bigger and bigger; more devices will get computer vision support and more sensors.
CPU out of stock gradually eases
According to the economic daily report, Intel CPU began to be out of stock at the end of last year. It is reported that Intel’s 14nm capacity has once again appeared in short supply, mainly affecting the 10th generation, the code processor of Comet Lake. The Comet Lake mobile processor uses a 14nm process that is more efficient than the previous generation.
Intel has said earlier that in the second half of 2019, CPU out-of-stocks will show signs of improvement, and Intel will begin to accelerate the transition from 14nm to 10nm, which will help alleviate the problem of short supply.
The foreign media The Register visited HP and Lenovo executives at the Canalys Channel Summit in Barcelona in October this year. Alex Cho, president of HP Personal Systems Business, said that Intel’s shortage is not limited to specific individual models, but the entire product line. Both are in a state of shortage.
Although the overall market conditions of semiconductors are slightly weak this year, the gold-oxygen half-field effect transistor factory (MOSFET) in power semiconductors is still relatively stable regardless of price correction or demand cooling. After entering the second half, due to The shortage of CPU supply has eased slightly. Market legalists expect that MOSFET factories including Dazhong and Jieli will continue to see their fourth quarter results.
The previous MOSFET price has also been slightly revised. However, the industry said that in recent years, the MOSFET factory in Europe and America has shifted its operations and orders to higher-end automotive electronics and self-driving markets. Focusing on the PC and consumer markets in the traditional electronics field, the lack of CPU supply since last year has indeed had a relatively significant impact on Taiwan’s MOSFET plants.
However, since the second half of this year, although the CPU supply has not yet met the market demand, the tight situation since the second half of last year has gradually eased. Therefore, the market legal person believes that in the PC and high-end notebook computers. Expected to pull high in the fourth quarter of the shipment performance, the expected MOSFET factory, includingDazhong, Jieli, Nixon and Fuding, etc., will continue to see operations in the fourth quarter.
From the above examples, we can see that unlike the previous two years, this year’s wave of semiconductor products is out of stock or because of technology, or because of unexpected. Products like CIS are driven by the smartphone supply chain. However, for the industry, how to plan well and make a reasonable supply system is an important guarantee for the healthy development of enterprises and even the industry.