Jingdong, Ali, and a lot of competition are getting closer to the heat.
Editor’s note: This article is from Tencent News “Peeping”, author Li Ruchao .
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According to the three quarterly financial reports released by the three companies recently, the number of active users of the year has rapidly climbed to 536.3 million, surpassing JD’s 334.4 million, and Taobao’s 693 million level is approaching.
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In terms of transaction size, the total amount of GMV in the past 12 months has reached 840.2 billion. Since Ali and JD.com have not released the GMV figures in the quarterly report, they will fight more and more GMV in this quarter compared with the level of 1.68 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2018, and the fight is still only half of Jingdong.
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From the third quarter earnings report, Ali’s leading position is still stable, and Jingdong still has a firm foothold in the mid-to-high-end market. Although it is a bit weaker at the current stage, the crazy growth rate is enough to make Ali Jingdong nervous.
Jingdong, Ali, and a lot of competition are getting closer and closer.
According to the three quarterly financial reports released by the three companies recently, many active users of the year have rapidly climbed to 536.3 million, surpassing JD’s 334.4 million, and Taobao’s 693 million level is approaching.
There was a net increase of 53.1 million in the quarter, which was the highest since the listing; Ali’s latest quarterly net increase was only 19 million. If you can maintain this growth rate, it may only be a matter of time to catch up with Ali.
At least in terms of the number of users, the “500 million people are using” has become the second largest e-commerce platform in China, and it is directly pushing Ali’s leading position.
However, considering multiple financial indicators, it may be too early to draw this argument. In the third quarter, the revenue of the company was more than 7.514 billion yuan, only 1/16 of Ali. Even when only considering the income of Ali’s domestic retail sector (mainly e-commerce), it is only 1/10 of Ali’s.
Because the fight is much more similar to Ali’s e-commerce part of the revenue structure, this comparison can reflect that the gap with Ali is still quite large.
In terms of transaction size, the total amount of GMV in the past 12 months in the third quarter has reached 840.2 billion. Since Ali and JD.com have not released the GMV figures in the quarterly report, they will fight more and more GMV in this quarter and the level of Jingdong’s 1.68 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2018.It is half of Jingdong.
Although Huang Wei recently announced in his internal letter that his “true GMV” has surpassed Jingdong, the definition of “real GMV” is ambiguous. From a financial point of view, there is still a certain gap between Jingduo and JD.
In addition, at the user’s “quality” level, the spoilers are also at a disadvantage. Calculate the consumption of active users of the three platforms, and fight for a total of 1566.7 yuan in the third quarter; Ali is 8,757 yuan in the first quarter, and Jingdong is 5,493 yuan in the fourth quarter of last year. A lot of per capita consumption is less than one-third of Jingdong.
Considering that all three platforms are growing, the per capita consumption in the third quarter will actually be lower than this.
However, the growth rate of many fights is indeed the top three platforms. In the third quarter, the total revenue of the company was still as high as 123%, much higher than Ali’s 40% and Jingdong’s 28.7%. On GMV, the company also achieved a year-on-year growth rate of 143.68% in the same period, and suppressed the year-on-year growth rate of the 19% fiscal year announced by Ali in the first quarter and the 30% year-on-year growth rate of Jingdong in the fourth quarter of last year.
All in all, from the third quarter earnings report, Ali’s leading position is still stable, Jingdong still has a firm foothold in the middle and high-end market; although the fight is much less at this stage, but the crazy growth rate is enough to make Ali Jingdong nervous.
Annual active users: A lot of quarters increased by 5310 million, which is more than 2 of Ali
A lot of active users in this quarter have been particularly good.
It can be seen from the figure that on the scale of the user, the fight has already opened a certain distance with Jingdong and directly pursued Ali. From the incremental disk, the net increase of 53.10 million in a single season is more than twice that of Ali’s 19 million.
Jingdong has just begun to focus on the sinking plan this quarter, with a net increase of 13 million in the quarter, but it has been the highest in its seven quarters.
It can be seen that although the three platforms have a good growth, but the fight is still the top of the active users. This shows that it is still in a period of brutal development.
GMV level: Ali’s lead is obvious, and the fight is less than half of JD.
In terms of GMV, the GMV for this quarter was 840.2 billion, a year-on-year growth rate of 143.68%. Although both Jingdong and Ali did not release the GMV figures in this quarter, they used the level announced by the two companies as a reference.The growth rate is 30% and 19% respectively.
The development of high-speed development continues to dominate.
However, from the perspective of the amount of GMV, the gap between the two platforms is still large.
Considering that the actual GMV of Jingdong Ali is inevitably higher than the above figures, it can be seen that Ali is at least 6.8 times more than the GMV level, and Jingdong is at least twice as much as the GMV level.
This means that from the perspective of GMV, Ali’s leading position is still stable in the short term.
Revenue growth rate: the highest number of fights, but the smallest base
The revenue growth rate reflects the business expansion of the three platforms. As can be seen from the figure, although the revenue is only 7.514 billion yuan, the growth rate is the same as the other two platforms.
Revenue structure: A lot of efforts rely heavily on the income from marketing products such as through trains from the settled merchants
Considering that JD’s business and revenue structure is quite different from Ali and the company, it focuses on the business and revenue structure similar to Ali and more. Its main sources of revenue are marketing revenue (ie, Ali’s merchant service income, which is mainly the marketing promotion fee charged to the merchant), and commission income (directly linked to the transaction volume, the platform directly charges the transaction).
It can be seen that even if the two businesses and revenue structure are similar, the commission income is only less than 5% of Ali’s income; but the marketing revenue is 16.25% of Ali.
The two ratios are more divergent, reflecting that the fight is more focused.
Considering that the financing in the third quarter is more frequent, this means that the free cash flow of the lottery may be much lower than 157 yuan, and even the possibility of negative value is not excluded.
Market value: Jingdong has a lot of anti-overplay last night
After surrendering a loss-expanding financial report yesterday, the fight fell more than 22.89% in a single day, and evaporated the market value of one billion overnight.
Based on yesterday’s closing price, Ali’s market value is 476.09 billion US dollars, the leading edge is obvious, more than 10 times for Jingdong; Jingdong 46.26 billion US dollars, achieved a lot of market value overtaking yesterday.