This article is from WeChat public account:US Stock Research Institute (ID:meigushe), cover from: Oriental IC

A lot of people have asked me recently, “Is it possible to copy a lot of money now?”, valuation is originally an art, this is actually very difficult to say clearly, but I have a theory before, that is, the company that reported the thunder, the next one It is best not to hold before the financial report, this accuracy rate is more than 80%.

In terms of how much, the fourth-quarter earnings report may continue to explode with a high probability, so the best bargain-hunting time may be February next year. I don’t have much to say about the analysis of the Q3 financial report. I can find a lot on the Internet, both optimistic and bearish. I roughly sorted out the views of both long and short sides.

The bulls think that the number of new users has increased significantly. In the third quarter, the number of active buyers who have been fighting for many years has reached 53.63 million, a net increase of 150.8 million compared with the previous quarter. The net increase of 4.832 billion yuan was 53.1 million, the largest single quarter growth since the listing. The increase in the number of active buyers will help to create a large-scale effect. The loss will increase. It is only a strategic layout for the future. As long as we work hard to improve user stickiness, we will turn active users into deep users. In time, when a lot of stickiness can reach the stickiness like Taobao, it’s definitely a matter of minutes.

The shorts believe that the tens of billions of subsidies are a double-edged sword. The cost of Q3 is 6.9 billion yuan in marketing, while the income is only 7.5 billion yuan, the loss is expanded to 2.3 billion yuan, and the quarterly customer cost is 108.63. Yuan, higher than the 80 yuan in the previous quarter, is the third highest position in the history of the fight. In terms of profitability, the gap between Ai Duo and Ali and JD is extremely different. On the whole, the growth rate of various indicators slowed down, the revenue was less than expected, and the loss was widened. As a result, the stock price of the company was frustrated after the release of the financial report.

These views are actually no problem, from a variety of perspectivesThe problem that I saw was definitely different. The bulls saw growth and the shorts paid more attention to cash. The two sides had a huge judgment error. This was the second trading day after the 22-percent fall in the financial report. There will be important reasons for the rebound.

But a series of clues at this stage indicate that in the short term, the fight has entered a turning point. From the research report of an international investment bank, I obtained a single-quarter GMV in the period of 2018Q1-2018Q4: 66.188 billion yuan, 82.468 billion yuan, 118.294 billion yuan, and 204.65 billion yuan.

Combined with this data: In 2019, the single-quarter GMV of Q3 in Q1~2019 was: 151.88 billion yuan, 234.168 billion yuan, and 249.395 billion yuan. In fact, the growth of GMV has basically reached a bottleneck period, so Q4 will There are four major concerns: (Note: In the second quarter, the number of GMVs has increased exponentially, on the one hand because of subsidizing the iPhone, and on the other hand because the growth in the first quarter is less than expected. )

1, GMV year-on-year growth rate fell below 100% for the first time

The number of GMVs in Q3 was 840.2 billion yuan, an increase of 144% year-on-year. The total revenue was 7.51 billion yuan, and online marketing revenue and transaction service revenue contributed 6.71 billion yuan and 800 million yuan respectively. Although Q3 still maintains a growth rate of up to 123%, compared with the nearly 700% increase in the same period last year, the growth rate of too much revenue has been greatly slowed down.

The growth rate of GMV is always showing a downward trend. The double eleven in the fourth quarter is Ali’s home game. The probability of a lot of growth is not 54% of the second quarter. We assume that it can grow by 45%. %. In the third quarter, the actual year-on-year growth rate of GMV in the case of a small base last year was 108%, and the GMV in the fourth quarter was expected to be 361.623 billion yuan.