This article is from the public number: True name Lu Jun (ID: zhenjiaolujun0426) , author: really makes Rousseau, thematic map from: vision China
I want to tell you a few observations about the third and fourth lines and the county town property market, but there are a few prerequisites to tell you first:
1. We are living in 2019 and will soon be in 2020. I do n’t want to judge many house prices.Stay before 2010. For example, the old topics of how the house price is structured, how much profit is reasonable, and whether the land is bundled for sale, will not be discussed at least here;
2. Regarding housing prices, in fact, I am not interested in talking about whether housing prices are reasonable or unreasonable, and whether there are so-called bubbles. In a city without an absolute bubble, there is actually no possibility of buying. In a place where the bubble is in the sky, you may find that the city’s development speed is even faster than the bubble speed. I hope everyone will accept the reality. Leave the right and wrong to the experts and analyze for yourself;
About these prerequisites, and then talk to you about some recent perceptions and personal views on house prices.
01
The first reality: There are no more than a few thousand houses in the county seat, but there are also few cities that can stably stand in the 20,000 unit price range.
The most time I spent this year was running around cities. I found that in today’s urban architecture, some second-tier, most third-tier, and almost all county towns. In all cities where commercial housing enters, housing prices are in More than ten thousand, very very delicate
Especially in cities between 12,000 and 15,000, it’s really special. It’s rare to see which city’s house prices are still in the thousands. This is the price guarantee after rapid urbanization in the past two years, and it also shows that a large number of urbanizations are actually the same in essence, that is, shed reform, demolition, and then commercial housing.
Besides that, there is not much content for more city operations. This is also an important reason why house prices in many third-tier cities can’t stand above the unit price of 20,000 yuan. The monetary compensation for shanty town reforms is almost the same. The indigenous people’s purchasing power is not enough. The foreign cities can’t get in. The income of internal cities can’t go up. In such a space.
In my eyes, whether it can break 20,000 is the key figure to verify whether the indigenous purchasing power of this city is sufficient. If it breaks 20,000 and stands firm, the trend of house prices will be relatively stable. Hangzhou, Suzhou, Nantong, Ningbo … all these cities are here.
House prices are weird. They can distinguish not only people but also cities.
02
House prices in inland cities are very low, but they may be very low.