This article is from public number: autocarweekly (ID: autocarweekly) author: Karakush, title figure from: vision China

In 1982, Musk was 11 years old.

The United States that yearScreened by many film critics and later considered the best sci-fi movie ever-“Blade Runner” (Blade Runner) .

I’m not sure if I saw it. He was still living in Pretoria, South Africa, and was probably editing a space game called Blaster. The next year he sold the game and made $ 500. That was his first knowledge revenue.

A primary school student who has been programming for profit in the 1980s is a lot like the audience for Blade Runner. Now it seems that the influence of this film on Lao Ma is also profound.

The background of the film is set in November 2019, and it discusses advanced propositions of whether humans have humanity. In November 2019 of the real timeline, we are still 800 streets away from that dystopian society. But the old horse decided to bring a little of it to our eyes-Tesla launched Cybertruck.

Cybertruck is similar to the Spinner honey in the film. It is a silver machine outlined by various obtuse and right angles. So the coincidence at the time point, I believe it is definitely not accidental. Before the name Cybertuck was set, the old horse often called it “Blade Runner Pickup” (Blade Runner pick-up) .

This is not the first time Lao Ma has used sci-fi to guide his product. His other company, SpaceX’s two launch vehicles, Falcon 9 (Falcon 9) and Falcon Heavy (Falcon Heavy) are named after the millennium 战 (Millennium Falcon) .

The gap is definitely there. The Spinner in the film can take off and land vertically like a F-35 fighter and perform fancy flight. Cybertruck can only be mixed on land, but its strength is not bad. In the words of old horses, it is that the pickup is better than the Ford F-150 and the sports performance is better than the basic Porsche 911.

The specific parameters are like this:

It is a flexible monster with a size of 5885/2027 / 1908mm and a trunk length of 1981mm. Many bloggers and media teachers who go to the scene to praise the spacious and rich.

In addition, Lao Ma promised that there would be a vehicle 110V / 220V power socket, an air compressor, a standard adaptive air suspension, a standard AP system, and a powerful HP Value-

The body is made of stainless steel alloy and SpaceX’s new rocket starship Starship is a material and uses bullet-proof glass, which can theoretically prevent at least 9mm pistol attacks, although the glass did not withstand hand-throwing steel during the presentation The ball shattered two pits awkwardly.

This didn’t stop the old horse. He stood in front of the prototype car with two pits and completed the press conference. The technical media Wired speculated that there was no problem with the bulletproof material, because the free-falling steel ball was successfully prevented when the glass was tested separately on the spot; it was speculated that the impact space was generated after dissolving the buffer space on the car. When mass production is delivered in 2021, this problem may be solved.

-It doesn’t matter.

What’s important is why the old horse wanted to build a pure electric pickup. He said, “ We need sustainable energy. If we don’t have a pickup, we can’t solve this problem. The three best-selling cars in the United States are pickups. So we must have a pickup .” / p>

The latest data point out that pickup trucks account for about 17% of sales in the US light vehicle market, 22% of revenues, and 70% of profits … Successful models not only take volume but also make money. Reuters has reported that GM can earn an average of 17,000 US dollars per pickup truck, and the profit of high-end models is more fertile.

But Wall Street believes that these have nothing to do with Tesla’s Cyberbertuck. Because its sharp futuristic shape cannot attract mainstream pickup consumption, Cybertruck will become a symbolic product with low volume. The stock took the lead in diving response, and dropped 6.14% the next day after the release.

< / p>

Many people are worried that the positive momentum in the third quarter earnings report will be consumed up to this point.

If you take a closer look at the US pickup market, you’ll see that Wall Street’s downfall is not redundant. Cybertruck’s full-size pickup market is firmly held by Detroit’s top three: Ford F-150, Fiat Chrysler’s Ram, and GM’s Silverado. Their main consumer group is, in a word, old white men.

For example, the best-selling F-150, which was the top-selling pickup truck in 44 states in the United States last year. According to estimates by Hedges & Company, the average age of its new car consumers is 55 years old. What ’s new is that female car owners 16 %, Male owners 85%-and 3/4 are white males. Other best-selling pickups are similar: Silverado ’s average age of new car consumers is 54; Ram is younger at 50.

Not just the head. According to statistics from IHS Markit, the old American brand strongly controls 92% of the tonnage market. Over the past 20 years, Japanese car companies have spent billions of dollars trying to cut a piece, but with little success. You may be excellent in all indicators, but you can’t make a rough soul that can represent traditional American values.

How do you expect these people to switch to cyberpunk? It’s too much more than asking Trump to turn pink Hillary.

Of course, the other school ’s point of view is that it ’s not uncommon to go to his uncle. This car is rebelling against the standards of a traditional pickup truck from head to toe. In itself, Tesla will not even try to attract tradition. Pickup buyers.

And the facts prove it againIt is clear that there is not no market, but no right product . The pickup of the new generation may be the sound of this steel egg.

In less than three days, Lao Ma announced on Twitter that the number of orders for Cyberbertuck has reached 146,000, of which 42% are dual-motor versions, 41% are three-motor versions, and 17% are single-motor versions. of. He also emphasized that these orders were completed without advertising and paid endorsements.

After another day, the number becomes 200,000.

Although the deposit is only 100 US dollars (1000 yuan in China) In theory, if there are enough fans and fans, you can use bots to brush your tickets. Look.

At the same time, as the mass production and delivery will not begin until 2021, the long wait is an order killer. Model 3 is a lesson learned-when it was released in 2016, Tesla received more than 130,000 orders in 24 hours, and more than 60,000 were cancelled one year later. Of course, the fact that the Model 3 is now a global winner can also be a lesson learned.

Anyway, capital market confidence in Cyberbertuck is back. Opening on Monday in US time, the stock jumped 3.39% and closed steady at $ 336.34.

According toFactSet’s tracking inventory of 32 analysts, Wall Street’s rating of Tesla is mostly “hold”, with an average target stock price of $ 314.83. That’s probably about 10% off the current stock price.

Just like this, it is actually a serious underestimation of Tesla. Cyberruck is a landmark in terms of design. Not only does it look different, it is important that it is anti-routine.

For example, if you look at the roof, it’s thin and thin. The triangle structure of various triangle sets tells you that this roof is not weak, but its thin appearance makes it look a bit unbearable. The average pickup designer doesn’t do that. They will add some extra things to make the car look more stable and solid, even if it is not bad in engineering.

But Cybertruck doesn’t compromise and doesn’t think it’s unnecessary. This is consistent with Tesla’s first-principles. All possible innovations begin with the abandonment of the old tradition. Over the past 100 years, pickups have grown in a format that has not improved. The first is that they can’t get out of the comfort zone of design habits and routines.

You can see that it is very uncomfortable to change the design language, not only beyond the same problem, but also beyond yourself.

This is not the case with Tesla in the past. In the past Tesla, I have seen a description that is particularly accurate: it is like a rushing algorithm. For example, Model S, as if someone put the marketLuxury cars and sports cars come together to add and subtract to make an average.

If you close your eyes and want to reflect on its lines, you are as clear and profound as blindly thinking about a Mustang or 911. You will suddenly realize that Tesla is lacking in design. Say it; on the other side you will also realize a magical fact that Tesla did not challenge the design boundaries to a great extent while rewriting the electric vehicle project. Yes, it made some adaptation designs, removed the grille, and put the trunk in the front coolly, but did not change the shape drastically.

And starting with Cybertuck, (if this is the beginning of a new style) , may start a new round of remodeling.

It’s not just aesthetic. Whether it meets your aesthetics or not, it has at least its own aesthetics, which is already stronger than most car companies today. It shows an attitude, which requires courage, but also what the industry needs.

Two days ago, I was chatting with a car designer at the auto show. An autonomous SUV next door was unveiled. After the covered red carpet was lifted off, the designer said, oh, learn Audi.

But he does n’t bring any sarcasm. He said that when a car is designed to consider winning the largest market, it must cater to the widest aesthetics. Most people are actually not willing to take risks. This becomes every designer. s pain. Which designer is willing to copy this and that all day, silly?

It’s not just a matter of autonomy.

The old car brands are actually very courageous and dare to have their own personality. For example, the futurism shown on Cybertruck has been popular in the United States for a while. You can see the definition of Cool in the 1980s on DeLorean in “Back to the Future”.

The guiding principle of good design is that you cannot attract everyone. If you blindly seek collective recognition, you will end up being as boring as most people. That’s why the cars are so weak today.

Cybertruck conceptually focuses on purity and functionality, and may also bring by-products. If Tesla keeps all the elements of the car like this flat and straight appearance, they may greatly simplify the traditional automobile production line and reduce the cost. Cost of tools and molds. That design is probably the smartest change in automotive history.

Are there any problems? For example, the prototype cars at the conference did not even have rear-view mirrors. The same design has actually been seen on the Byton concept car, but in the mass production version, they were forced to go back by the regulations. Other experts worry that from the visible form, there is no obvious collapse zone, and there may be hidden dangers. Tesla did not respond to these questions and did not say what will happen in 2021.

But 2021 should be a good time. Both Ford and GM have said they will electrify pickups by 2021. This trend is not so much a surge in competition as it is creating soil for Tesla. Admit it, whether it is electric technology or software, there is a considerable generation gap between traditional car companies and Tesla, just as Nokia tried to port its Symbian system to smartphones after seeing Apple But tragic.

It ’s not that Tesla wo n’t plant it. It ’s really planted many times, but every time it will stand up. With its powerful product power, it not only crushes all electric cars, but also implements reductions for gasoline cars. We are struggling to defend and enrich to this day. We have a certain product line, a certain loyal customer base, and even a certain value. It now has a more direct design language. Such a Tesla is more like Apple than the original, and hopes to bring the electric vehicle market share from zero to 10% or even 30%.

In 1982, “Blade Runner” just opened, the box office was actually terrible, and the comments were very polarized. The boasting people boasted about its dramatic complexity and visual effects, and they were not boasting about ideas; the diss people were diss It has a slow pace and lacks action bursts. Before becoming the best in history, it was once regarded as a Cult movie by the small circle.

But one day, you will be recognized for its value.

score public number: autocarweekly (ID: autocarweekly) , author: Karakush