This article From WeChat Public number: Guotai Junan Securities Research (ID: gtjaresearch) < span class = "text-remarks">, the original title: “Trump’s Troubles” sequel: losing eight supporting states during his term | Monarch Macro, picture from: China
Following the Ummun and the impeachment case, Trump’s counter-current luck has started to intensify.
First, he interfered in the internal affairs of the U.S. military and was accused of contempt of military authority. Later, Mayor Bloomberg of New York City announced his candidacy for the 2020 US President.
Trump may be laughed at by these media hot topics, but in November, the Republican iron ticket warehouse Kentucky governor changed hands and was included in the Democratic Party, so he really wanted Trang. Big head.
Know that, as a Republican’s traditional ballot district, in 2016, Kentucky contributed to Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton.
The more serious fact is that this is already the eighth supporting state that Trump has lost during his term. Especially the 2020 presidential election is coming to an end. The Republican defeat this time can be described as meaningful.
Yesterday, Guotai Junan ’s macro team released the latest issue of the “U.S. Election Watch” report “Continuous defeat of the governor election, Trump ’s chance of success”, and we reviewed Trump ’s latest worries, and this for the current What the US government means.
01. Lost 8 governors in a row during his term
The election of the governor of the United States is held every four years, and the election is held in November each year.
This year’s governor general election is set to take place on November 16. There are three states to be elected, including Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana.
From the perspective of the election, the Democratic Party has retained Louisiana and the Republican Party has retained Mississippi, but has lost its own iron ticket warehouse, Kentucky.
(* Editor’s Note: We fixedly cast a party from 2000 to 2014 as the party’s iron ticket warehouse, if you vote between If there is a change, it is a swing state.)
On November 5th, Andy Bessier, Attorney General of the Democratic Party of Kentucky, (Andy Beshear) with 0.4 percentage points (5086 votes) ‘s slight advantage over current Republican Governor Matt Bevin （Matt Bevin) .
Although Bevin refused to concede because the votes of the two were too close, the “close combat” of the two was very strong for a Republican iron ticket warehouse like Kentucky. problem.
In the evening of November 4 before the election, Trump also deliberately participated in a campaign rally in Kentucky to stand for Bevin. This result will undoubtedly make Trump a little embarrassed.
The tougher fact is that this is the eighth governorship that Trump has lost since he was in office for three years.
Since the 2016 US presidential election, the United States has held three elections for governors.
In 2017, two states held governor elections, and the Republicans lost the governor election in New Jersey;
In 2018, 36 states held governor elections, and the Republican Party lost 6 states;
Republican elections in 3 states in 2019Elections in the agricultural state of Kentucky were defeated.
Schedule and Results of 50 State Governor Elections During Trump’s Tenure
Data source: US Congress, Guotai Junan Securities Research
02, Sino-US trade war seriously injured farmers, Republicans lost Kentucky
Why did the Republicans lose Kentucky?
We think that there are superficial reasons in the media reports, as well as the deeper reasons for the direct damage of farmers in the trade war:
(1) Superficial reason:
Bevan is a “political extremist” figure, and he has a lot of friction with teachers and unions.
According to Dagong.com, Bevin’s personality characteristics are very similar to Trump’s, and he likes to implement controversial policies such as substantially weakening teacher pensions and reducing the expansion of Medicaid.
After Bevin’s high-profile fight with unions and teachers in 2018, according to Reuters, Bevin became the least popular governor.
Because of this, Trump ’s campaign for the Governor ’s platform for Bevin was all he could to try to weaken Bevin ’s personal influence as much as possible, but he was wrong to pay.
(2) Deep reason:
Kentucky is an agricultural state. The Sino-US trade war has damaged its pillar industries.
The wood products industry is a key industry in Kentucky. According to Kentucky.com, U.S. timber exports to China have fallen 43% nationwide since tariffs on wood products.
China imposes tariffs on US imports, which has severely damaged the timber industry in Kentucky, with both volume and price falling. According to the website, a typical lumber company, Somerset Wood Products Company (Somerset Wood Products) sales of hardwood lumber in China, It is down 48% year-on-year in 2019.
Thus, the direct damage to farmers’ economic interests caused by the trade war is the fundamental reason for voters to vote.
03, Trump ’s ticket warehouse pressure has increased sharply
In the United States, the actual power of the governor is not trivial.
Except for the federal government, the rest is reserved for the states, so the governor appoints the government budget, officials (including many judges) Both legislation and legislation have considerable influence. The governor will also influence the constituency division once every 10 years.
The loss of eight governors in a row during his tenure has undoubtedly increased the pressure on Trump’s ticket warehouse.
Especially in 2018, the Republican Party lost the governors of six states in one fell swoop. Among them, not a few are affected by the Sino-US trade friction.
(1) Michigan and Wisconsin are rust belt states. Sino-US trade friction has caused the state’s exports to China to decline, causing voters to vote with their feet;
(2) Although Kansas is a Republican iron ticket warehouse, Republican candidate Chris Kobach advocates anti-immigrants and oppresses minority voting rights, which is opposed by Kansas voters;
(3) Maine was a Democratic ticket warehouse from 2000 to 2012, but the 2016 election result was captured by the Republican Party with an overwhelming 2: 1 advantage. However, the governor who took office was an ultra-conservative person. It was very different from the state of Maine, which advocated freedom, and the Democratic Party took the governor.
04, review of the 2018 mid-term elections-four states fallGe
Apart from the governor election, it is not difficult to reach similar conclusions if the 2018 mid-term parliamentary elections are resumed.
During the 2018 House of Representatives midterm elections, Democrats won in Arizona and Iowa, with Pennsylvania and Michigan each holding half of the seats.
All four states were won by the Republicans in the 2016 election.
Of these four states, Arizona was once a Republican iron ticket warehouse, outside the Rust Belt, and the rest of Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are located in the Rust Belt.
In the 2018 House elections, four states have fallen, and three are in the rust belt region.
Data source: US Congress, Guotai Junan Securities Research
Iowa has the largest export impact among rust states. (Swing State) was the most affected in the midterm elections.
(Editor’s note: Pennsylvania and Michigan all supported the Democratic Party from 2000 to 2014.)
According to the 2018 export report issued by the USCBC, of the 7 rust states, China occupies its TOP 6 exporting countries. The main export products are aviation products, plastic products, oil seeds, motorcycle accessories, etc.
In 2018, exports of rust belts to China were generally affected. Except for Pennsylvania, the export volume of goods to China from the other six states declined year-on-year.
<-remarks "label =" Remarks "> This article is from WeChat public account: Guotai Junan Securities Research (ID: gtjaresearch)