Based on the mode differences, the online audio “Three Kingdoms”
Editor’s note: This article comes from the WeChat public account “Mantis Finance” (ID: TanglangFin).
(picture from the network)
“The longest river in the world is the Amazon River. Later, Amazon became the world’s largest e-commerce website; the world’s largest treasure finder was Alibaba, and Alibaba later became China’s largest e-commerce platform; then What will the world’s highest mountain, the Himalayas, be? “
Today, with over 530 million users and a market share of 73%, Himalaya has become the “peak of the peak” in the online audio industry.
Following the frequent listing of this online audio “highest peak” in the Himalayas and the rejection of listing news, in October 2019, the industry’s second litchi officially submitted an IPO application to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. There was a voice on the Internet saying ” The first strand of Himalayan audio was cut off. ” But recently, according to media reports, Himalayan has started Pre-IPO financing and will seek to list in the United States in 2020.
This is after the live streaming platforms such as Douyu and Huya have been queuing to market. Online audio platforms have rushed to IPO.
Although the news of the listing is Himalayan and Lychee, there is still a dragonfly on the market. Together with the former two, the online audio market is divided into a three-country hegemony pattern. According to the data from the Institute of Foresight Industry, 2018Q2 Himalaya, Litchi, and Dragonfly FM three active online audio active people reached 78.939 million, 39.138 million and 31.538 million people, respectively.
In the online audio hegemony pattern, Himalayan and Dragonfly chose to focus on the PGC model and invest in the field of knowledge payment. Litchi has taken a different approach and focused on the UGC model. It is based on live voice and becomes an audio entertainment platform.
For live voice broadcasts, Ai Media data shows that about 90% of online audio platform voice live broadcast users have a willingness to pay, and over 40% of users said they occasionally give rewards. The data from the Prospective Industry Institute predicts that by 2020, the market scale of knowledge payment will reach 7.83 billion yuan.
In a well-growth market environment, which of the three hegemons who are deeply cultivating the “ear economy” in different models, the PGC-based knowledge-paid cake, and the UGC-based voice broadcast rice bowl, which one is better?
Online audio “three kingdoms” based on mode differences
The online audio market, compared to Himalayan and Dragonfly, the first litchi that submitted an IPO application is actually a “commercial” latecomer.
In 2013, after two years of dragonflies, Dragonfly has received financing from the Innovation Workshop, and Himalayan, which followed the dragonfly’s start, has broken through the millions of users. At that time, litchi had just entered the stage of online audio.
Before 2015, the dragonfly that had been in the leading position in the industry started with PGC, but it was this year that Himalayan surpassed the dragonfly with its own content, copyright and other advantages. So far, it has maintained a leading market size advantage.
Litchi has been following a path of differentiation from Himalayan and Dragonfly since its establishment. In 2018, Litchi’s voice live broadcast mode has stepped into the air of live broadcast, and monthly users have successfully surpassed Dragonfly, becoming China’s second largest online audio platform.
In the Three Kingdoms of Himalayan, Litchi, and Dragonfly, the two modes of payment are knowledge payment based on PGC, and voice broadcast based on UGC.
Himalayan can reach its current status without the explosion of knowledge payment.
According to ChoiChai.com, in 2016 known as the first year of knowledge payment, the market turnover in the knowledge sector was approximately RMB 61 billion. In addition, 73 related companies have been established. As of the end of September 2019, there were a total of 316 knowledge payment related companies in the market, of which more than 210 companies received financing, accounting for 46%.
And Himalayan, the first “123 Knowledge Carnival” held in 2016, sales exceeded 50 million; in 2017, this number reached 196 million; in 2018, it has exceeded 435 million.
Mantis Finance believes that On the knowledge pay circuit, the advantage of Himalayan is PGC, but only PGC.
In the 2016 Knowledge Carnival, Ma Dong’s “Speak Well” was the champion of single product sales, and Ye Wubin’s “Time Management 10 Lessons” ranked second in the total sales list; in 2018, annual content consumption The most popular product is “Friendly Classes for Better Neighbors: English Transformation Plan”, and Cai Kangyong’s “201 EQ Courses for Cai Kangyong” is ranked second.
It is not difficult to see that under knowledge anxiety, professional content and strong IP power are more willing to let users open wallets.
Although Dragonfly is one step behind, it has advantagesIt is also focused on big coffee programs such as Gao Xiaosong’s “Dwarf Tight North”, Jiang Xun’s “Jian Xun’s Elaboration on the Dream of Red Mansions”, Zhang Zhaozhong’s “Speaking of Characters”, and Liang Hongda’s “Lao Liang’s Four Famous Classics EQ Courses” On the PGC, and these programs are over 100 million.
The dragonfly has not bypassed the Himalayas, and Litchi knows that he is not capable of crossing.
“Network audio is not a tool for users to learn advanced, but a social way to maintain emotional connection.” If you look at the genetic theory of the Internet, Litchi ’s UGC audio community strategy, or Lai Yilong ’s entrepreneurial genes . After all, in the projects that serial entrepreneur Lai Yilong once used, whether it is Enterprise Information Communication or the 183.cn migrant worker community, there are social factors.
Litchi also benefited from this difference and explored its own business model. As of now, Litchi has more than 5.7 million monthly active content creators and accumulated more than 160 million audio content uploaded to the platform. Original audio content covers 27 major categories and 107 sub-categories, including emotional FM, parent-child, language learning, music Radio stations and talk shows are China’s largest UGC audio community.
According to the litchi prospectus, based on the UGC mode, it has accumulated the underlying sound technology (such as recording, editing, noise reduction, etc.), intelligent recommendation and other technologies and product capabilities, becoming a litchi moat under the audio UGC track.
Today, in the “Three Kingdoms” that have been separated, both Himalayan and Litchi are seeking listing, but the world of online audio is still undecided.
Which is better, the knowledge-paid cake or the live broadcast rice bowl?
Yu Jianjun, the founder of the Himalayas, once said in an interview with The Bund Pictorial, “Taobao sells physical things, and Himalayan sells knowledge and skills. You can understand us as the” Taobao “in the sound world.” < / p>
Selling knowledge and skills corresponds to the anxiety of young people who are afraid of not keeping up with change and the expectation that they will become better.
This is also the essence of paying for knowledge, turning knowledge into a standard product or service that can be marketed. For the platform, the obvious benefits of taking the PGC model are controllable content, deep mining, and easier branding. But at the same time, the high requirements for content quality will test the copyright of the platform and its own content production capacity.
This leads to the delicious cake of knowledge payment, which has several limitations.
First, Content production relies heavily on head IP. Head IP represents stable content output ability and fan appeal. This can be seen from the contents of Ma Dong and Cai Kangyong in the Himalayan Knowledge Carnival. With the high-quality content and halo of IP, users and revenue for the platform will increase. But if the head IP is difficult to continue to produce explosive models,Or transfer platforms, it is difficult for users to stay on.
Second, Content costs are too high. To date, Himalayan has sound rights to 70% of the best-selling books in the market, 85% of the right to adapt audio books for online literature, 6600+ original English best-selling books, and resident IPs include Ma Dong and Guo Degang. The large investment in the content supply side and the poor performance of the paid business have caused Himalayan to have been losing money. According to media reports, Himalayan ’s net loss for the whole year was still 108 million yuan. Dragonfly’s IP also has the “Four King Kongs” of Gao Xiaosong, Zhang Zhaozhong, Liang Hongda, and Jiang Xun, but according to Sanyan Finance, Dragonfly pays Gao Xiaosong an average of tens of millions of purchase content each year and bears tens of millions of promotion costs, but the revenue from selling the course But only less than 1/4 of the content cost.
Litchi ’s live broadcast rice bowl, in contrast, Although content costs are relatively low, likewise, live broadcasts, like knowledge payments, rely heavily on head IP. Thus, high-quality anchors will be the core resources of litchi. This may lead to a problem: in order to ensure the output of high-quality content, when the platform’s policy is tilted to the head anchor, those amateur anchors occupying the main users of the litchi, or the lack of traffic and attention of silver, will go quiet and escape.
Moreover, As a content platform, Litchi’s UGC model also has a greater risk of losing control of content. Besides that, because UGC cannot achieve the depth of PGC, it will have requirements on the freshness and fun of the content. And how difficult is a decentralized UGC voice platform to accurately grasp the needs and pain points of users for change at all times?
Actually, Litch’s vision is beautiful. I hope that the whole people will output sounds and be a UGC audio community to achieve social purposes. But the reality is that even if FM is removed, Litchi is still largely a FM under the mobile Internet.
Knowledge paid cakes and voice broadcast rice bowls, in fact, it is not better to say which one is better. After all, knowledge pay is in the cold, and voice broadcast ca n’t take away the attention of video broadcast, but as far as PGC and UGC are concerned, Under what kind of business, P + U may be a good choice.
And Mantis Finance looks at the future of online audio. There are two other scenarios that may be worth paying attention to.
First, Car audio. The Internet of Vehicles is a future trend, which has made it possible for various car audios to land. Moreover, in a special closed scene like the cockpit, sound will be the most effective reach.
Second, Smart speakers. According to Canalys data, in 2019, China’s smart speaker market sales may reach the scale of 59 million units. Online audio is fragmented and accompaniedThe characteristics of sex make it able to find applications in home, leisure and other scenarios with the help of the entrance of smart speakers.
Of course, in the recent period of time, we still look back and see how litchi and Himalayan are heading for the market.
According to ChoiChai.com, in 2016 known as the first year of knowledge payment, the market turnover in the knowledge sector was approximately RMB 61 billion. In addition, 73 related companies have been established. As of the end of September 2019, there were a total of 316 knowledge payment related companies in the market, of which more than 210 companies received financing, accounting for 46%.
And Himalayan, the first “123 Knowledge Carnival” held in 2016, sales exceeded 50 million; in 2017, this number reached 196 million; in 2018, it has exceeded 435 million.
Mantis Finance believes that On the knowledge pay circuit, the advantage of Himalayan is PGC, but only PGC.
In the 2016 Knowledge Carnival, Ma Dong’s “Speak Well” was the champion of single product sales, and Ye Wubin’s “Time Management 10 Lessons” ranked second in the total sales list; in 2018, annual content consumption The most popular product is “Friendly Classes for Better Neighbors: English Transformation Plan”, and Cai Kangyong’s “201 EQ Courses for Cai Kangyong” is ranked second.
It is not difficult to see that under knowledge anxiety, professional content and strong IP power are more willing to let users open wallets.
Although Dragonfly is one step behind, it has advantagesIt is also focused on big coffee programs such as Gao Xiaosong’s “Dwarf Tight North”, Jiang Xun’s “Jian Xun’s Elaboration on the Dream of Red Mansions”, Zhang Zhaozhong’s “Speaking of Characters”, and Liang Hongda’s “Lao Liang’s Four Famous Classics EQ Courses” On the PGC, and these programs are over 100 million.
The dragonfly has not bypassed the Himalayas, and Litchi knows that he is not capable of crossing.
“Network audio is not a tool for users to learn advanced, but a social way to maintain emotional connection.” If you look at the genetic theory of the Internet, Litchi ’s UGC audio community strategy, or Lai Yilong ’s entrepreneurial genes . After all, in the projects that serial entrepreneur Lai Yilong once used, whether it is Enterprise Information Communication or the 183.cn migrant worker community, there are social factors.
Litchi also benefited from this difference and explored its own business model. As of now, Litchi has more than 5.7 million monthly active content creators and accumulated more than 160 million audio content uploaded to the platform. Original audio content covers 27 major categories and 107 sub-categories, including emotional FM, parent-child, language learning, music Radio stations and talk shows are China’s largest UGC audio community.
According to the litchi prospectus, based on the UGC mode, it has accumulated the underlying sound technology (such as recording, editing, noise reduction, etc.), intelligent recommendation and other technologies and product capabilities, becoming a litchi moat under the audio UGC track.
Today, in the “Three Kingdoms” that have been separated, both Himalayan and Litchi are seeking listing, but the world of online audio is still undecided.