This article is from the WeChat public account: wendao-thinkers ) , author: Deng Yu, from the title figure: vision China
(I) Catching-up model of industrialization development in later-developed countries
For late-developing countries, the policy orientation of structural reforms, visionary institutional changes, and the economyThe revision of the growth model is more successful, and the endogenous nature of the reform co-exists with the sustainability of economic growth. Otherwise, any form of policy error will cause irreparable losses. Schumpeter once said: “People can study the economy in three ways: through theory, statistics and history.” The deduction of economic theory simplifies the structure of historical events and economic policies, and history is more Complexity and periodicity. The so-called mirror of history is the best proof. The game of “latecomer advantage” and “latecomer disadvantage” (transformation / interaction) is the result of historical cycle interpretation, and the catch-up countries are catching up The weak growth faced by the late-developing countries is universal. In a certain period, the weak growth and structural problems faced by advanced countries are also inevitable.
Figure 1: Four Industrial Revolution Processes and Distribution Data Source: Stavrianos “Global History: From Prehistory to the 21st Century” < / p>
Industrialization is the source of “latecomer advantage” and “latecomer disadvantage”. Judging from the historical cycle of industrialization in the past two hundred years, technology is the core element of industrialization, whether it is the first industrial revolution started in early Britain and the Netherlands, or the second industrial revolution started in France, the United States, and Germany. The technological revolution improved productivity, changed production relations, and promoted the transformation of agricultural society to industrial society. Technological iteration and industrial transfer run through the historical process of industrialization for nearly two hundred years. There are two paths in this technological output. One is that late-developed countries actively introduce technology, learn from the first-developed national system and education, and train early-skilled workers. Establish a factory system model and set up a relatively preliminary industrialization system; second, late-developing countries are forced to open domestic (“aggression”, colonies, “open doors”) < / span> Adopt technology and industry transfers from first-mover countries, including capital export, and form the basis of industrialization.
(II) Industrialization Process in Technology and Industry Transfer
In the era of globalization, technology transfer and industrial transfer remain the core of international trade. Leading developed countries such as the United States, European countries, and Japan have mastered the advanced technologies and achievements of the third industrial revolution. The core of economic growth, multinational company mergers and acquisitions, and capital operations. The core technologies mastered by the first-developed countries have become the top of the global trade value chain, and the technological dependence of the later-developed countries has led them to always be at the bottom of the globalized industrial chain. The added value of the industry is extremely low, and the possibility of catching up and surpassing in the short term is unlikely. Thus, the “disadvantage” of late-developing countries lies in their inability to achieve technological breakthroughs in the short term. Independent innovation requires a longer cycle, which is more difficult for small and medium-sized countries and pre-industrialized countries. This is also the “latecomer advantage” and Contradictions that cannot be avoided by the “latecomer disadvantage” or can be considered structural conflicts. In some cases, when the technological level of the late-developing country catches up or exceeds the technological level of the earlier-developing country, this structural conflict will trigger new technological dependence.
Figure 2: Distribution of Rosto’s industrialization process Source: Sun Jiayu, “National Life Cycle under Industrialization Process”, April 2019
Although most developed countries have entered the post-industrialization era, the level of industrialization in the division of international trade and industrial layout is still an important indicator of economic strength. Late-developing countries can only achieve urbanization and modernization with the help of industrialization, which is also the soil on which the “late-developing advantage” is rooted. The heavy industry opened with the assistance of the Soviet Union in the early days of the founding of New China is the priority industry of the “One Five-Year Plan”. The layout of the heavy industry will strengthen the defense and military forces and establish a relatively complete industrial system, which can ensure the national economy. And military strength, and laid a solid foundation for rapid industrialization in the later period. The comparative advantage of late-developing countries is in learning technology and the introduction of advanced equipment, which can narrow the gap with the early-developing countries in the short term. However, the loss of technical / financial assistance due to the collapse of Sino-Soviet relations after the “One Five-Year Plan” resulted in the “Two Five-Year Plan” being almost defeated.Passiveness is exactly the risk encountered by the late-developing countries, which is more common in the era of industrialization.
Second logic of “advanced advantage” and “advanced disadvantage”
“Lagging advantage” and “Lagging disadvantage” are not absolutely contradictory relationships, but the unity in opposition, a relative concept, and an empirical research paradigm of economic growth and technological learning. In different historical periods, backward countries have adopted this strategy to promote their industrialization construction, but there are still large differences in specific practices. This is based on the special political systems, historical development stages, and domestic and foreign environments of each country. Determined by sex. For example, Russia’s early industrialization was based on the “serf system” and “tsarist” system, while Japan’s industrialization was based on the “Meiji Restoration”, mixed with the “Mikado” system, and the political congenital defects were undoubtedly late. The industrialization process has hidden potential risks.
(I) The fact that industrialization drives economic strength growth
The concept of “later advantage” was put forward by American economic historian Alexander Gerschenkron on the basis of summing up the successful catch-up experience of industrialized countries such as Germany, Italy, and Russia in the 19th century. The main theory is reflected in his book ” “A Historical Review of Economic Backwardness”. These countries are all without exception, through the introduction of technology, learning to cultivate their own industrial systems, and later include the introduction of some systems, laws, and so on. Following and leading are the two most common modes of logical deduction of the world order. They play an extremely important role in the international political structure dominated by classical realism, and have been developed by developed, developing, and poor countries. Mutual recognition has even become a consensus to some extent. The catch-up of late-developing countries often deepens with the change of history and the development of the times. The change of this order is reflected in the game of economic growth, industry, technology and political reform, and then evolves into the strength of the country. Representation-power, and the rules, identities, and voices that emerge behind it. The game between the advantages of late-developing countries and the disadvantages of late-developing countries is not only a theoretical debate, but also a struggle of evidence, experience, development model, and system.
Economic growth is not the only path to national development, but it is an extremely important source of material foundation and national strength. Rapid economic development and the achievement of national development goals are the driving force behind the nation-state’s continuous pursuit of advanced countries. The advantage of latecoming is to achieve short-term success through existing successful cases, reproducible economic models, and experience, and at least to some extent change the status quo