Near the end of the year, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shanghai dropped significantly.
Editor’s note: This article comes from Daily Economic News author: package Jingjing, authorized reprint
“The transaction volume of second-hand housing has decreased significantly recently.” Tang Hua (a pseudonym), a property consultant in Shanghai who loves my home, said in an interview with the reporter of “Daily Economic News”: “3 months ago, every store The weekly volume is about 40-50 sets, but only 25-30 sets in recent weeks. “
The transaction data is basically consistent with the perception of market participants. According to data from Shanghai Central Plains Real Estate, the second-hand housing market in Shanghai experienced a round of transaction peaks from March to April this year, and then the transaction volume fell month by month, after a month-on-month decline for five consecutive months; a small rebound occurred in September and it regained 20,000 units. “Watershed of strengths and weaknesses”; but entering October, the trading volume continued to shrink to 16,000 units, down 24.1% month-on-month, becoming a relatively rare drop this year.
A residential area in Shanghai Picture source: Every reporter Bao Jingjing takes a photo
The year-on-year transaction increased significantly year-on-year
E-House’s “Shanghai Market Report in October” states that excluding the February affected by the Spring Festival, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shanghai in October has reached a new low this year. However, the transaction volume of the second-hand housing market in Shanghai in 2019 is far better than in 2017 and 2018.
Shanghai second-hand housing transaction volume changes monthly
Observing historical data, we can find that the transaction of second-hand housing in Shanghai has been in a low level since the beginning of 2017. The round started in March 2019.The “Little Spring” market drove the overall recovery of the second-hand housing market, with a strong rebound in transaction volume, hitting a new high since October 2016. From April to August, the trading volume continued to fall, and a small rebound occurred in September, regaining its strength and weakness.
According to the transaction data of Zhongyuan Real Estate, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shanghai has reached 196,600 units from January to October this year, exceeding the total number of units sold in 2018; the market performance during this year’s “Little Spring” was much better than in 2018, and the monthly sales 7000 ~ 12,000 more than the same period last year. Even for the “Jin Jiu”, which was inadequate this year, the transaction volume of 21,000 units was much higher than the 15,000 units in the same period last year.
Lu Wenxi, an analyst of the Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate Market, told the Daily Economic News reporter: “The main feature of the Shanghai market this year is ‘increased volume and stable prices.’ ‘Volume increase’ means that the transaction volume is somewhat better than in 2017 and 2018. It has improved, but this increase is not as unconventional as in 2015 and 2016. The average level since this year is 19,000 units per month, which is equivalent to the 5-month average monthly transaction volume, so this volume is the normal level. In the transaction volume With the support of this year, the house prices have stopped similar to the continuous decline in 2017 and 2018, and have bottomed out and stabilized. Of course, because the transaction volume is also a regular volume, the price does not have the conditions to continue to rise. “
Low transaction price consolidation
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of second-hand housing in Shanghai has maintained a relatively stable pattern this year. In the first 10 months, the prices in January and July were flat month-on-month, with a slight decrease of 0.1% to 0.2% in 3 months, with the largest increase. In April and October, there was only a slight increase of 0.05% and 0.06%.
Compared with the same period of last year, the monthly index of second-hand housing prices in Shanghai is mainly down. The monthly transaction price index of Central Plains Real Estate also shows that whether it is “Little Spring” or “Golden Nine” this year, the price index of the two peak transaction periods is lower than 2018.
Tang Hua also said frankly: “The more cost-effective homes are now selling, the recent transaction prices are lower than before. Although there are many houses, the landlord’s listing price is high, but it is not easy to sell. The reason for the low volume. “
On the other hand, with the newly built dwellings in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen entering the era of “unsold”, second-hand housing transactions have also been suppressed.
“There is also an upside-down phenomenon of second-hand housing prices in Shanghai, so the prices of second-hand housing have been suppressed, and buyers’ expectations for future prices are “stable.”Only enter the market when the price reaches the psychological level. Now that the bargaining space is generally around 5%, it is easier to facilitate transactions if you can reach this level. “Lu Wenxi said.
E-House’s “Market Report” predicts that from the booming period of the property market from 2015 to October 2016, the year-on-year increase in second-hand housing continued to expand to the highest point in the past 12 years, 36.7%, so the adjustment period for house price decline is also longer. Considering that the transaction volume of second-hand housing will shrink in the short term, it is expected that the price of second-hand housing will continue to fall month-on-month.
High listing price inhibits transactions
But near the end of the year, despite the shrinking trading volume and falling trading prices, Tang Hua still feels full of opportunities. He told reporters that there are more and more active landlords who have come to the market recently, and the number of listings is almost doubled. At the same time, there are also a lot of housekeepers.
In fact, the number of second-hand housing listings in Shanghai has increased significantly this year. “Daily Economic News” reporter reviewing the data of Central Plains Real Estate found that the total number of second-hand housing listings in Shanghai in the first 47 weeks of this year reached 463,000 units, which was 25,000 more than the same period last year.
The monthly data from the Zhuge Finding Data Research Center shows that the highest number of second-hand housing listings appeared in August and September, but there was a significant decrease after entering October.
But the number of listings seems to have picked up recently. In the past week (November 17-23), the number of listings reached 9605, exceeding the weekly average of the whole year. “Previously there were about 20 listings per week, and now there are about 40 per week. There has been a big increase. Probably because the end of the year, landlords are ready to sell their homes at home.” Tang Hua told the Daily Economic News reporter.
Lu Wenxi pointed out: “At present, the weekly listing is around 9,300 units, and if it is active, it is at least 11,000 units, so it is currently in a relatively stable pattern. Based on the increase in transaction volume over last year, it is beneficial to the landlord’s mentality , So the listing will not further reduce the price to enter the market like last year, most of them choose the market price listing. Only some landlords eager to make a deal are more positive. For replacement customers, only the price is appropriate, or a certain property you want Will take the initiative to reduce the price for a deal. “
Tang Hua also repeatedly talked about “price-performance ratio”. “Next, try to recommend as many cost-effective listings as possible, and have a greater chance of closing.”
For the second-hand housing market in Shanghai in the last month of this year, Lu Wenxi predicts that “the transaction volume in the last month should be within 20,000 units, but it is also unlikely to fall below 15,000 units, and it is likely to be in consolidation. It is not the peak trading season itself, coupled with the fact that the market has not shown a trend change, and the recent decline in transactions, the market wait-and-see mood may increase again. “