This article is from WeChat public account: new financial Luo Shu (ID: FintechBook) , author: Ray slow, title figure from: vision China
In October 2017, Fun Store went public on NASDAQ.
Luo Min’s youth is determined. On the day the financial report was released that day, Qudian’s market value did not reach 100 billion U.S. dollars, and it no longer received salaries and bonuses.
Today, the stock price of Qudian is embarrassingly low to reject rhetoric. Luo Min can’t pull it back with 10 cattle. Four days after the release of the Q3 2019 financial report, Qudian fell for four consecutive days, with a market value of only 1.145 billion US dollars. It has broken 90% from its peak of 10 billion US dollars when it was listed.
In the face of the dazzling net profit data of many financial reports, Mutual China has also dreamed of a “Davies double-click”, but even if the revenue is high, the market is still bearish and voted with his feet.
Today, Qudian, 360 Finance, WeChat.com, and Xiaoying Technology all have historically low stock prices. While facing the increasing pressure on profit margin growth, they were astounded by the policy winds under strict supervision.
This business earns money and has money, but the capital market is desperate.
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At the end of November, Q3’s Q3 financial report was released, with revenues of 2.589 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.434 billion yuan. The data is dazzling, but the trend is obvious. The growth rate of net profit fell from 200% in Q1 and 57.9% in Q2 With 52.6% of Q3, the ability to make money is getting increasingly tired.
The smart Wall Street did not invest in the high profit data of Qudian. After the Q3 earnings report of Qudian was released, it fell for four days, and the stock price fell from $ 7.50 to $ 4.10, a cumulative decline of 45%.
The reason why Wall Street sees empty fun stores is probably because of the lack of imagination in making money. At this time, the market value of Qudian has dropped 90% from the peak of 10 billion US dollars to about 1.1 billion US dollars.
This problem is actually a problem of mutual funds and the entire industry.
Since 2015, large Internet companies have begun to assist in lending this fat with a very high net interest rate. During the bonus period of regulatory vacancies, they quickly realized cash flow.
After the 36% interest rate red line was set in 2017, although the interest rate of credit institutions remained high, with the fierce competition of credit products such as 360 Finance, Xinye Technology, Lexin, Qudian and Ant Financial, Tencent Microfinance, Reducing interest rates is the main way to improve competitiveness. Under pressure from the industry, reducing interest rates will also be forced.
Put interest rates on margins, and high interest rates often run counter to asset quality.
In the past few years, mass consumption habits have changed from savings to debt, and many borrowing behaviors have been largely activated. Therefore, general credit institutions have paid high customer acquisition costs.
We need to know that in the credit market, which is dominated by the transformation of the concept of consumer credit, the marketing of credit has increased from clicks, activations, and retention.
A research report by “Whale Zhun” shows that the average customer acquisition cost of the consumer finance industry reaches 110 yuan / person. An example of a consumer finance company shows (The customer acquisition cost is 113 yuan / person) , the user borrows 1,000 yuan, and the annual interest rate plus interest rate is 36%, of which the annual customer acquisition cost rate is as high as 20.86%, accounting for 57% of the revenue.
After 2018, more and more regular financial forces have received such a notice in terms of funding cooperation: prudent cooperation and control of scale.
By this time, the banking industry’s army of retail businesses is already vast. In addition to the four major banks, a large number of joint-stock commercial banks, and city commercial banks all started to make consumer credit, the cakes are getting smaller and smaller, and banks are taking more and more.
The loan assistance business is more and more like a transitional business in the process of the market’s return to licensed institutions.
At present, the banking industry is spreading its own credit business network with one hand, while the other is holding the neck of the loan assistance business, and it is the institutional funds flowing to the loan assistance platform.
Whether Zhou Hongyi or Luo Min understand the difference between personal funds and institutional funds. In terms of capital costs, the annualized interest rate from banks is about 6.5% -10%, which is much lower than P2P business by more than 12% -20 % Of integrated financing costs.
However, bank institutional funds lack policy stability compared to personal funds. A regulatory tightening document from the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission often creates a panic for fintech companies.
In front of banking institutions, the vast majority of fintech platforms are still vulnerable groups, and they need to put aside the risks of institutional funds. Loan-assisting institutions are often the object of discerning funds of banks, trusts and other institutions. For loan assistance institutions, they need to meet a lot of requirements: the main body has good qualifications, such as interest rates, business compliance, and low overdue rates; some banks set a minimum monthly loan amount for loan assistance institutions; as for the bottom of risk Most banks will impose more stringent conditions on them than head platforms.
Public financial platforms such as 360 Finance, Qudian, Xiaoying Technology, and Micro-loan.com, despite their wealth, are all exceptional in paying bank deposits or providing financing guarantees to bank funds, putting them at risk.
In the pocket model, if the asset-side risk is not effectively controlled, the more the liability expands, the greater the risk exposure. The P2P platform thunderstorm is a large number of platforms that balance the debt side of the debt side with a sub-asset balance. Makes most platforms crash and die.
In this cooperation model, the ultimate test of fintech’s risk control capabilities is. In the future, it is the general trend for licensed financial institutions to make loans on their own, providing transitional measures to provide funds for loan lending or sufficient funds. This means that only fintech platforms that have stronger scenarios, flows, and technological capabilities than or can be supplemented by licensed financial institutions can succeed.For the latter guests.
In general, the mutual imagination space of the mutual stocks lies in the growth of profit margins, user growth, and policy trends. Now all three parties are facing difficulties.
Foresight is best at this time.
This article is from WeChat public account: New Financial Book (ID: FintechBook) < / span> , author: Ray slow