This article comes from WeChat Public number: Economic Reference (ID: jjckb-wx) , author: Liang Qian, Accidental days, Yang Youzong, original title:” Economic Counselor investigation Shu oversupply and more new high vacancy rate, “title figure from: pexels
CB Richard Ellis report showed that first-tier city office vacancy rate increased significantly, a series of hit a number of “all-time high.” As of the end of the third quarter, the overall vacancy rate in the Beijing prime office market rose to 10.9%, the highest level since the second quarter of 2011. The vacancy rate in Shanghai’s office building peaked to 18.5% in the first half of the year, a record high in the past ten years.
Investigating the reasons, industry insiders said that on the one hand it is the market fluctuations caused by economic operations, and on the other hand, under the demand of industrial upgrading, local governments accelerate the “centralized” transfer of commercial places and “landmark” buildings. With the rise of super-high buildings, the supply of office buildings increased rapidly. Obviously, oversupply was the main cause of rising vacancy rates.
first-tier cityOffice vacancy rate rises sharply
Data from Dade Lianghang show that in the first three quarters of 2019, the new supply of Grade A office buildings in Beijing reached approximately 430,000 square meters. Affected by the new supply, the average vacancy rate in Beijing and the core business districts was 1-2 compared with the beginning of the year. About a percentage point increase.
58 Zhang Bo, Dean of the Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, said that due to the slowdown in economic growth and fluctuations in various industries in the real economy, corporate expansion has become cautious, and office leasing demand is weak. At the same time, the leasing decisions of tenants are more conservative, leading to further extension of the project’s dechemicalization cycle and leasing decision cycle.
Wei Dong, Head of China Research, Dade Liang Xing North, said in an interview with the Economic Reference Daily that The main reason for the high vacancy rate is due to temporary mismatches in rental demand and supply volume. Of course, the economy The downturn is also a major factor in the slowdown in leasing demand in many cities. Data shows that the average Beijing office building absorption in the past ten years was 561,000 square meters, but the main market entry projects in the first three quarters of 2019 alone reached 678,000 square meters.
At the same time, according to data from DTZ, in the first three quarters of 2019, the net absorption of office buildings in Beijing and the five core business districts was 239,000 square meters and 41,000 square meters, respectively, down 40.9% and 20.6% over the same period in 2018.
The CB Richard Ellis report shows that due to the impact of non-traditional financial, cultural media, and pharmaceutical companies’ integration and rent-off, the net absorption of existing projects is negative. In addition to the main needs of traditional finance, the pace of expansion in the technology industry has slowed significantly, and the ratio of new leases has fallen from 34% to 16%.
A reporter from the Economic Reference Daily recently conducted a survey in the Shanghai Hongqiao Business District, where the “Expo Expo” is held, and found that high-end office buildings in the area were clustered, but the vacancy phenomenon was very prominent. In the core area of the Hongqiao Business District, reporters can clearly feel the scarcity of vehicles in this area, the deserted staff, and rental advertisements with phone numbers everywhere.
As the highest occupancy rate in the region