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On December 16, the “Status of Changes in Sales Prices of Commodity Houses in 70 Large and Medium-sized Cities in November 2019” and “National Investment and Sales of Real Estate Development in January-November 2019” released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that November The prices of newly-built commercial houses in 44 cities rose month-on-month, and the prices of second-hand houses in 33 cities fell month-on-month. This was the second consecutive month when the prices of second-hand houses fell in more than 30 cities.

From January to November, the sales area of ​​commercial housing nationwide reached 1,48905 million square meters, which has been increasing year-on-year for six consecutive months, and the growth rate has accelerated; sales of commercial housing have reached 13,900.6 billion yuan, an increase of 7.3%, and the growth rate has remained flat; national real estate development investment 121265 Billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, and the growth rate has continued to decline since April.

“According to the data of the same period in 2018, the market turnover in the whole year of 2019 is more than 15 trillion yuan, and it is expected to create an annual sales record of nearly 16 trillion yuan.” Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, told reporters of “Daily Economic News” The analysis believes: “But investment has slowed down, the market has gradually shown signs of downward adjustment under the influence of regulation and control, and corporate capital chains have tightened. At the same time, the two-way regulation of the property market policy has started, and the talent policy Xiaoyangchun has emerged. The underpinnings and caps have reappeared.” p>

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics Cartography: Every editor Wei Wenyi

Commercial housing sales in the first 11 months of 13.9 trillion yuan

In the first 11 months, the floor space of commercial buildings sold was 1,489.5 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points faster than that of January to October. The sales of commercial housing were 13,900.6 billion yuan, an increase of 7.3%, and the growth rate was flat. Among them, the area of ​​residential sales increased by 1.6%, sales increased by 10.7%, office sales area decreased by 11.9%, sales decreased by 11.3%, and floor space and sales of commercial buildings fell by 14.1% and 13.5%, respectively.

But the growth rate of real estate development investment has slowed down. National Real Estate Development Investment in the First 11 Months500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, a growth rate of 0.1% lower than January to October (among which, residential investment growth rate dropped 0.2%), and the growth rate has continued to decline since April.

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics

In the first 11 months, real estate investment in various regions has increased to varying degrees, but the growth rate has dropped across the board. Specifically, the investment in real estate development in the eastern region was 637.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped 0.1 percentage point from January to October. The investment in the central region was 2.5102 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.7%, and the growth rate dropped 0.3 percentage points. 27455 billion yuan, an increase of 15.3%, a growth rate of 0.4 percentage points; the investment in Northeast China was 493.9 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9%, a growth rate of 0.6 percentage points.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, told the reporter of “Daily Economic News”: “Development investment data reflects the fine-tuning orientation of the investment side of housing enterprises. The data fully demonstrates that fixed asset investment and tertiary industry investment have played a comparative role. The good underpinning effect. In the absence of a comprehensive recovery in infrastructure investment, the development investment data is worthy of recognition, and it also reflects that housing companies still have a high enthusiasm on the investment side under the expectation that the housing sales market will cool down. ”

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics

From January to November, the floor space of real estate development companies’ construction area was 87.481 million square meters, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped 0.3 percentage points from January to October. Of which, the construction area of ​​residential buildings was 6,136.6 million square meters, an increase of 10.1%.

The floor space of newly started housing was 2,051.94 million square meters, an increase of 8.6%, and the growth rate dropped by 1.4 percentage points. Among them, the floor space of newly started residential buildings was 1,151.47 million square meters, an increase of 9.3%. The floor space of buildings completed was 63.846 million square meters, a decrease of 4.5% and a decrease of 1.0 percentage point. Among them, the residential completionA total area of ​​45.274 million square meters, a decrease of 4.0%.

In terms of funding, the real estate development company’s funds in place for the first 11 months were 16,035.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, and the growth rate was flat. Among them, domestic loans were 231.3 billion yuan, an increase of 5.5%; foreign capital utilized was 16.1 billion yuan, an increase of 57.5%; self-raised funds were 525.1 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7%; deposits and advances were 5.482 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.0%; personal mortgage loans were 24395 billion yuan Yuan, an increase of 13.9%.

“On the one hand, the data on capital is not too bad. The growth rate has been relatively stable since this year, and the financial situation has not significantly deteriorated. On the other hand, we must also see that the feelings of housing enterprises and market data are not consistent, at least The housing enterprises think that the current funding is obviously tightening, and it is necessary to prevent all kinds of new pressures on the funds. In terms of recent housing enterprises’ actions, it is still common practice to accelerate the collection of funds and actively issue bonds. “Yan Yuejin continued.

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics

The amount and area of ​​land purchased by real estate companies both fell year-on-year.

From January to November, the land purchase area of ​​real estate development enterprises was 217.2 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from January to October; the land transaction price was 1,196 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.0%, and the decrease was narrowed by 2.2. Percentage points.

In this regard, Yan Yuejin’s analysis believes that in general, local governments will actively provide land in the fourth quarter, which will affect the land market transactions. From the perspective of the decline in land prices, it is mainly that the third and fourth tier cities have greater downward momentum, and the land transactions in first and second tier cities still show some growth.

Zhang Dawei showed a set of statistics by the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center. As of November this year, the total land transfer amount of first- and second-tier cities reached 3.0285 trillion yuan, compared with 2.498 trillion yuan in the same period in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 21 %. In terms of time, the amount of land sales in first- and second-tier cities has set a historical record for the amount of land sales one month in advance (the total amount of land sales in 2018 was 2.87 trillion yuan).

In the first 11 months, 13 cities sold over 100 billion yuan in land sales, setting a historical record for the same period. Hangzhou ranked first with 253.8 billion yuan, and Shanghai and Suzhou ranked second and third with 166.6 billion yuan and 165.6 billion yuan, respectively.

It is worth noting that the land supply in some hot cities has recently increased.The market differentiation is also reflected in the land market, such as the relative concentration of land and housing enterprises in non-private enterprises, and the obvious differentiation among different cities.

New home prices continue to decrease in cities as compared with the previous quarter

In November, new house prices in 44 cities rose month-on-month, 21 cities fell, and 5 cities remained flat. Compared with October, the number of cities in which new house prices rose in November decreased by six, which has been decreasing for six consecutive months. In the first-tier cities, the prices of new homes in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen rose by 1.7%, 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, and Guangzhou fell by 0.5%. 31 second-tier cities rose 0.2% from the previous month; 35 third-tier cities rose 0.5%.

Data shows that in November, the prices of new homes in Tangshan and Yinchuan led 70 cities with a month-on-year increase of 1.9%; housing prices in first- and second-tier cities were relatively stable, and urban housing prices with loose regulatory policies continued to rise, with Shenzhen being the most typical.

Data source: Mapping by the National Bureau of Statistics: Every editor Wei Wenyi

“During the downward cycle of the property market, the newly-restricted homes previously contracted in most cities have gradually been released, making the statistics of new homes with online signing prices still on the rise. From the data point of view, the prices of new commercial houses in most cities’ Distortion ‘, the trend of house prices depends on second-hand housing prices. “Zhang Dawei pointed out.

Second-hand housing prices reflect another situation: Of the 70 large and medium-sized cities in November, the prices of second-hand housing in 33 cities fell month-on-month, 32 cities rose month-on-month, and 5 cities remained flat.

From the historical data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, the prices of second-hand housing in more than 30 cities fell in October and November for two consecutive months. The last time this happened was 56 months ago, in March and April 2015.

Zhang Dawei believes that the price of second-hand housing in more than 30 cities has been reduced for two consecutive months, and it can be judged that the inflection point in the property market has occurred.

Combined with the relevant data in October, new and second-hand houses in second- and third-tier cities have continued to fall, orDown. New house prices in 31 second-tier cities fell 0.3% month-on-month in November, and 0.6% month-on-month in October; new and second-hand houses in 35 third-tier cities fell 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, in November, and 0.7% in October 0.4%.

Data source: Mapping by the National Bureau of Statistics: Every editor Wei Wenyi

58 Zhang Bo, Dean of the Anju Guest House Product Research Institute, said, “The cooling in second- and third-tier cities is continuing, and the effect of the property market regulation is accumulating. It is expected that the downward trend will continue in December.”

For the first-tier cities, Zhang Bo pointed out, “Except for Shenzhen, the overall cooling of first-tier cities in the second half of 2019 is more obvious, especially the cooling of the second-hand housing market is more obvious than the same period in 2018. The price changes in November to a certain extent The above shows that the market has bottomed out, and it does not rule out that changes in the supply structure of commodity housing in some cities have driven the average transaction price up. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the overall market demand for home purchases will decrease, and house prices will be very high at the end of the year It ’s hard to have big ups and downs. “

Will there be a “Little Spring” in the property market next year?

In the second half of the year, the frequently-promulgated talents and settlement policies of various places have stimulated the industry’s expectations on the property market.

Zhang Bo showed a set of data to the reporter of “Daily Economic News”, “Taking Shantou as an example, in September, a notice was issued to purchase subsidies for newly-introduced talents. The highest subsidy for qualified talents has reached 1 million yuan. This policy The effect was diffused in November, and the activity of looking for a house in Shantou on Anju increased 28.6% month-on-month to become the hottest city. At the same time, the increase in consulting heat in cities such as Jilin and Dalian is related to talent policies. Through relaxing the settlement policy, talents are distributed. Housing subsidies, subsidies for employment and entrepreneurship, etc., these cities have attracted talents to move in, which in turn has led to an increase in the number of housing purchase consultations.

But in fact, house prices in cities such as Dalian did not increase significantly in November. BigEven in November, new house prices increased by 0.2% month-on-year, and second-hand housing prices remained the same as last month. In Nanjing, where a heavy talent policy was released in November, new house prices fell 0.1% month-on-year, and second-hand housing prices rose only 0.2% from last month.

In this regard, Zhang Bo pointed out, “The talent and settlement policies have promoted the heat of the property market, but the overall driving force for housing prices has been relatively limited. In November, the property market has generally stabilized. In the fourth quarter, the investment shift and competitiveness of housing companies have changed. Blocking is still going on. With the arrival of the climax of returning home at the end of the year, returning home buyers will drive urban hotspot switching, and third- and fourth-tier cities will receive more attention. “

“The period of the most stringent regulation of real estate has passed, and most cities in the future may release policies that are conducive to stabilizing the real estate market in terms of talent purchase, first home credit support, and provident fund policies. Large, but the market is showing signs of gradually stabilizing. “

For 2020, will there be the same “Little Spring” market this year? Zhang Dawei believes that “the stable real estate market in 2019 is the mainstream, and Xiaoyangchun mainly focuses on policies. Under the main tone of” no housing and speculation, “the policy easing is limited, and the future property market will still fluctuate between 15 trillion and 16 trillion yuan in the future. “