Second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen rose the most, up by 1.4% month-on-month, which led the country to increase the most.
Editor’s note: This article comes from the WeChat public account: Deco Real Estate Channel, (ID: dekedichan) < / a>, author: Liu Deco, authorized reprint
1. Not quite
National Bureau of Statistics: Price changes in 70 cities in November
Hello everyone, I like Liu Deke who sees people with dark circles.
Let’s look at the data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The house price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities in November has been announced on December 16. We, like in the past, really like to count how many of these 70 cities have a decline in second-hand house prices. Counted carefully, 33 cities fell month-on-month.
So how many cities fell in October? 35. Of the 70 cities, 35 are exactly half, and the number of cities falling this month has decreased to 33. Does that mean that the coldest node of the market has passed? Do not rush to judge, we will also look at a series of data.
In this area, second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen rose the most, up by 1.4% month-on-month.
Shenzhen led the rise, everyone will think of the last round, that is, in 2015 or even at the end of 2014, Shenzhen’s house prices first awakened. In that round of destocking, Shenzhen’s house prices led the country’s rise. After Shenzhen’s rise, it will be Shanghai, Beijing, second-tier cities, the Four Little Dragons, Nanjing, Hefei, Xiamen, and Suzhou.
Will Shenzhen become an engine again? Shenzhen is still a powerful engine in terms of technological innovation and economic development, but it will not be such a big engine in terms of rising house prices.
This is not a problem in Shenzhen. The country is now under heavy regulation and control. Unless another macro policy like the national property market destocking is implemented four or five years ago, Shenzhen will become a super engine. That kind of super stimulus policy is unlikely to appear in the short term, so Shenzhen cannot become a house engine that is too surging.
2. Not true
National Bureau of Statistics: National Real Estate Investment and Sales Data from January to November
In fact, these two days the National Bureau of Statistics also released a data, which is also the national real estate development investment and sales situation every month. From January to November, the sales area of commercial buildings was nearly 1.5 billion square meters; the sales of commercial buildings were nearly 14 trillion. Compared with last year, both are increasing.
Because of thisIt is the data from January to November. After the end of December, the sales of commercial housing nationwide must have exceeded 15 trillion.
This topic is also a commonplace. At the beginning of the year, we were discussing whether the sales of commercial housing in the country will exceed 15 trillion this year, and then we have been talking about breakthroughs and breakthroughs. Well, there are only a dozen days left. This is a foregone conclusion. We say it will break through. It has no meaning anymore-it must be a breakthrough.
What we want to judge is whether the scale of sales of commercial housing will shrink in the next 10 years. In our research report and research results, in the next 10 years, China’s annual sales of commercial housing will remain at 15 trillion and above. Or to put it this way: the sales of commercial housing in the next 10 years will slowly rise between 15-25 trillion yuan.
Do not consider 15 trillion as a peak, 15 trillion is a starting point for the new phase. Many people say that the scale of development is shrinking. When the market is bad, it is easy to draw this view, but we have to use macro data to analyze these issues.
Why are you talking about this? Because we must have a clear judgment on how many years of real estate are still in the golden age. Real estate has at least a golden period of 10-20 years. After the golden period, it will enter the silver period, and may then enter the intermittent development of London and New York.
The real estate industry will never disappear, but we have to seize the dividends of its outbreak period. The next 10-20 years will still be the outbreak period.
Let ’s take a look at this data and use national development investment data to convert monthly sales and average monthly unit prices. These statistics will not be released directly by the National Bureau of Statistics, but we can calculate it ourselves.
You will find that the sales amount in November is higher than that in October, the sales area is also increasing, and the unit price of sales is also increasing. So if we only use November and October for comparison, this is a rise in volume and price.
As we mentioned earlier, the number of cities with second-hand housing prices falling is decreasing, and the sales amount, sales area, and average unit price of first-hand commercial housing are all rising. From these dimensions, the coldest market is probably over. It’s not that it will be hot immediately, that is unlikely, but it will be a stage of slowly climbing. This, of course, benefited from the easing of macro funds throughout October and November.
We have counted all the data for each month of this year. You can see it in the video. Even from the perspective of the whole year, the sales amount and sales scale in November are not low. The sales amount is about 1.46 trillion yuan, which can be ranked third in the whole year, only lower than in June and September; June It was 1.89 trillion, and 1.61 trillion in September;The sales area is not the lowest, only lower than in March, June and September.
From the overall macro data of November, it is still in a state of strong sales and a slight increase in prices. So now the market is cold. From a macro perspective, it is no longer true.
3. Not fresh
Xi’an releases opinion draft on “Supervision of Commercial Housing Pre-sale Fund Supervision”
Xi’an “regulates the pre-sale funds of commercial housing”, this policy is a very, very small news for people in our real estate industry.
A small news in the real estate industry, if it is put to the public or outside the real estate industry, it seems that every news is a big news. For example, we have seen some media say that this policy is really good, the market is more transparent, and people who buy a house have no worries about living in a good house. They feel that with such a policy, the environment of our property market can change.
Some people look more professional, and they say that this is a tight spell for developers. He said developers may abandon heavy assets; in addition, long-term mechanisms are gradually taking shape.
With such a policy, developers can abandon heavy assets? With such a policy, a long-term mechanism can take shape?
In fact, I want to tell you that everyone in the real estate industry knows that the Ministry of Construction and Construction of the “Supervision of Pre-sale Funds” has asked various places in the country to implement it. Xi’an is also implementing. This consultation draft just makes the previous supervision of pre-sale funds stricter. It is not a fresh and heavy measure. It just adds a small brick to the standard construction of real estate. Block tiles. That’s it. So don’t be surprised by every policy.
4. Exactly
Guangzhou Nansha relaxes housing purchase restrictions for undergraduates and above
Nansha news seems to be a big news in the past. Nansha has relaxed the restrictions on the purchase of housing for people with a bachelor’s degree or above: as long as you have a bachelor’s degree, you don’t need to restrict purchases when you run to Nansha to buy a house; Locals also buy up to two sets. Just do not need to move the account, now you and I can buy it.
Where is Nansha? We put a small map on the video. Geographically, it is the geographic center of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. There is no limit to purchase now. We used to buy a set there and it was quite good.
Of course, do n’t worry about it. The Nansha property market is very bleak. Will I lose it now? It may be lost. But if we put this house for 8 years, if you look back after 8 years, you will be glad that you bought a house at the geographic center of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau Greater Bay Area while it was released from purchase restrictions.
Because it is possible that this purchase restriction will restart, you can take advantage of this window to buy one.The short-term ups and downs are not so important. The important thing is that after 8 years, you look back at how wise you were.
This is our view on Nansha. As for whether it will stimulate the property market or whether it will lead other cities to relax the regulation of the property market, these things are too macro and have no direct relationship with us. What we have to think about now is that if we happen to have a feeling for Nansha, we have an investment desire, and we have a little money, then we will go to Nansha to buy a house and throw it there.
National Bureau of Statistics: National Real Estate Investment and Sales Data from January to November
In fact, these two days the National Bureau of Statistics also released a data, which is also the national real estate development investment and sales situation every month. From January to November, the sales area of commercial buildings was nearly 1.5 billion square meters; the sales of commercial buildings were nearly 14 trillion. Compared with last year, both are increasing.
Because of thisIt is the data from January to November. After the end of December, the sales of commercial housing nationwide must have exceeded 15 trillion.
This topic is also a commonplace. At the beginning of the year, we were discussing whether the sales of commercial housing in the country will exceed 15 trillion this year, and then we have been talking about breakthroughs and breakthroughs. Well, there are only a dozen days left. This is a foregone conclusion. We say it will break through. It has no meaning anymore-it must be a breakthrough.
What we want to judge is whether the scale of sales of commercial housing will shrink in the next 10 years. In our research report and research results, in the next 10 years, China’s annual sales of commercial housing will remain at 15 trillion and above. Or to put it this way: the sales of commercial housing in the next 10 years will slowly rise between 15-25 trillion yuan.
Do not consider 15 trillion as a peak, 15 trillion is a starting point for the new phase. Many people say that the scale of development is shrinking. When the market is bad, it is easy to draw this view, but we have to use macro data to analyze these issues.
Why are you talking about this? Because we must have a clear judgment on how many years of real estate are still in the golden age. Real estate has at least a golden period of 10-20 years. After the golden period, it will enter the silver period, and may then enter the intermittent development of London and New York.
The real estate industry will never disappear, but we have to seize the dividends of its outbreak period. The next 10-20 years will still be the outbreak period.
Let ’s take a look at this data and use national development investment data to convert monthly sales and average monthly unit prices. These statistics will not be released directly by the National Bureau of Statistics, but we can calculate it ourselves.
You will find that the sales amount in November is higher than that in October, the sales area is also increasing, and the unit price of sales is also increasing. So if we only use November and October for comparison, this is a rise in volume and price.
As we mentioned earlier, the number of cities with second-hand housing prices falling is decreasing, and the sales amount, sales area, and average unit price of first-hand commercial housing are all rising. From these dimensions, the coldest market is probably over. It’s not that it will be hot immediately, that is unlikely, but it will be a stage of slowly climbing. This, of course, benefited from the easing of macro funds throughout October and November.
We have counted all the data for each month of this year. You can see it in the video. Even from the perspective of the whole year, the sales amount and sales scale in November are not low. The sales amount is about 1.46 trillion yuan, which can be ranked third in the whole year, only lower than in June and September; June It was 1.89 trillion, and 1.61 trillion in September;The sales area is not the lowest, only lower than in March, June and September.
From the overall macro data of November, it is still in a state of strong sales and a slight increase in prices. So now the market is cold. From a macro perspective, it is no longer true.
3. Not fresh
Xi’an releases opinion draft on “Supervision of Commercial Housing Pre-sale Fund Supervision”
Xi’an “regulates the pre-sale funds of commercial housing”, this policy is a very, very small news for people in our real estate industry.
A small news in the real estate industry, if it is put to the public or outside the real estate industry, it seems that every news is a big news. For example, we have seen some media say that this policy is really good, the market is more transparent, and people who buy a house have no worries about living in a good house. They feel that with such a policy, the environment of our property market can change.
Some people look more professional, and they say that this is a tight spell for developers. He said developers may abandon heavy assets; in addition, long-term mechanisms are gradually taking shape.
With such a policy, developers can abandon heavy assets? With such a policy, a long-term mechanism can take shape?
In fact, I want to tell you that everyone in the real estate industry knows that the Ministry of Construction and Construction of the “Supervision of Pre-sale Funds” has asked various places in the country to implement it. Xi’an is also implementing. This consultation draft just makes the previous supervision of pre-sale funds stricter. It is not a fresh and heavy measure. It just adds a small brick to the standard construction of real estate. Block tiles. That’s it. So don’t be surprised by every policy.
4. Exactly
Guangzhou Nansha relaxes housing purchase restrictions for undergraduates and above
Nansha news seems to be a big news in the past. Nansha has relaxed the restrictions on the purchase of housing for people with a bachelor’s degree or above: as long as you have a bachelor’s degree, you don’t need to restrict purchases when you run to Nansha to buy a house; Locals also buy up to two sets. Just do not need to move the account, now you and I can buy it.
Where is Nansha? We put a small map on the video. Geographically, it is the geographic center of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. There is no limit to purchase now. We used to buy a set there and it was quite good.
Of course, do n’t worry about it. The Nansha property market is very bleak. Will I lose it now? It may be lost. But if we put this house for 8 years, if you look back after 8 years, you will be glad that you bought a house at the geographic center of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau Greater Bay Area while it was released from purchase restrictions.
Because it is possible that this purchase restriction will restart, you can take advantage of this window to buy one.The short-term ups and downs are not so important. The important thing is that after 8 years, you look back at how wise you were.
This is our view on Nansha. As for whether it will stimulate the property market or whether it will lead other cities to relax the regulation of the property market, these things are too macro and have no direct relationship with us. What we have to think about now is that if we happen to have a feeling for Nansha, we have an investment desire, and we have a little money, then we will go to Nansha to buy a house and throw it there.
Guangzhou Nansha relaxes housing purchase restrictions for undergraduates and above
Nansha news seems to be a big news in the past. Nansha has relaxed the restrictions on the purchase of housing for people with a bachelor’s degree or above: as long as you have a bachelor’s degree, you don’t need to restrict purchases when you run to Nansha to buy a house; Locals also buy up to two sets. Just do not need to move the account, now you and I can buy it.
Where is Nansha? We put a small map on the video. Geographically, it is the geographic center of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. There is no limit to purchase now. We used to buy a set there and it was quite good.
Of course, do n’t worry about it. The Nansha property market is very bleak. Will I lose it now? It may be lost. But if we put this house for 8 years, if you look back after 8 years, you will be glad that you bought a house at the geographic center of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau Greater Bay Area while it was released from purchase restrictions.
Because it is possible that this purchase restriction will restart, you can take advantage of this window to buy one.The short-term ups and downs are not so important. The important thing is that after 8 years, you look back at how wise you were.
This is our view on Nansha. As for whether it will stimulate the property market or whether it will lead other cities to relax the regulation of the property market, these things are too macro and have no direct relationship with us. What we have to think about now is that if we happen to have a feeling for Nansha, we have an investment desire, and we have a little money, then we will go to Nansha to buy a house and throw it there.