Various cities have risen and fallen.
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “Beard said room” (ID: dahuzishuofang) < / a>, author: horses strong.
1.
Did prices fall in 2019?
2019, the property market is a bit cold?
Yes, we often enter a sales department during the adjustment process across the country, and we only have a group of customers.
However, in the area where we are more optimistic, we can still encounter the situation where the sales office is full.
Real estate students from all over the world have their own opinions on house prices this year, and each city has risen or fallen.
Rising places:
There are places to fall:
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Indeed, this year’s national housing price trends: there are real price reductions, there are ups and downs, and there are also price increases without price reductions.
When we judge the environment of the property market, we basically rely on this information. Field investigation and inquiry, friends’ hearsay.
Can we judge the property market situation in 2019 based on these?
Is there no large-scale, objective, accurate, big data that ordinary people can also access?
Actually, of course. The National Bureau of Statistics will publish a data every month, that is, the sales of newly built commercial housing and the floor space of commercial housing sold in that month. You only need to divide the two to get the average price of new houses.
We recorded the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics in recent years and calculated the trend of house prices in 2019.
In July 2019, the national average price reached a maximum of 9,367 yuan / square, then began to fall slightly in August, until the recent November’s 9,335 yuan / square.
Overall, from January 2019 to November 2019, national house prices rose from 9079 yuan / flatAt 9335 yuan / flat, the overall increase was 2.8%.
So, in 2019, which seems to be a downturn in the property market and developers are very sad, China’s housing prices have risen a bit.
In fact, since 2001, except for the 2008 financial crisis that caused a slight drop in house prices, the country ’s average house price has never fallen compared with the same period last year. So 2019 house prices have risen, and it is not so unexpected.
You may say that the data of the National Bureau of Statistics may be distorted, but this kind of reference sample has more statistics than East talks with an intermediary and West asks a friend’s conclusions.
However, the year-on-year increase in CPI in November was 4.5%. In other words, counting inflation, if you invest in a house with your eyes closed nationwide, you will basically lose money.
Vaguely remember that at the beginning of this year, there was still a wave of small springs in the property market. Why did it stop in the second half of the year?
It may be related to the following reasons:
1. 730 first mentioned “Do not use real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term”, with a strong attitude (seeing that we were all using it before …).
2. The release of domestic capital liquidity was completed at the beginning of the year, and there was no new monetary stimulus in the second half of 2019.
3. Since the 518 China Banking Regulatory Commission has strictly controlled the real estate disorder caused by “blood transfusion” of social funds in violation of regulations, the financing channels for housing companies have been tightened, and some housing companies have discounted prices to speed up repayments.
4. In May, the newly-increased residential growth in 70 cities fell for the first time in the past 13 months. Second-hand housing fell sharply after peaking in April. The overall house prices were not optimistic, and citizens expected to decrease.
5. Demand for home purchases in certain periods, such as Spring Festival home purchase and year-end distribution, has decreased.
On June 24 this year, I also successfully predicted the property market environment in the second half of 2019. (
No one can accurately grasp the trend of the property market, but we can speculate from as many dimensions as possible.
In my opinion, the property market in early 2020 may be warmer than in the second half of 2019, and what the industry calls “Little Spring”.
The reasons are as follows:
1. The policy is relatively soft. The economic conference at the end of the year only raised housing and did not speculate, which is obviously different from the “resolutely curbing inflation” in July 2018 and the “short and no thorns” in July 2019.
2. First mentioned the “comprehensive implementation of policies based on the city”. In order to avoid the deserted property market, taking into account the pressure of economic growth, quietly introduced loosening policies, such as Hainan in September, Tianjin in October, and the recent Guangzhou Nansha. And Guangzhou Huangpu may play a stimulating role in the property market.
3. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Symposium in December stated that “maintaining real estate stability is an important contribution to the steady and healthy development of the macro economy.” The side implies that the property market is allowed to stay active.
4. The economic conference will adjust the 2020 monetary policy to be “stable and moderate, and reduce social financing costs.” It is difficult to tighten housing financing.
5. Although the LPR remains unchanged in December and the continuous interest rate cut is expected to fail, the central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase operation last March, and the winning bid rate was reduced from 2.7% to 2.65%. Generally speaking, this round of policies Sexual interest rate cuts have been initiated, and both MLF and LPR determined by MLF are trending downward.
6. As in previous years, seasonal peaks in buying a house are still unaffected, year-end awards, plenty of time to buy a home during the Spring Festival, and developer marketing methods have not changed.
However, this does not mean that 2020 house prices will resume the rising pattern. Looking at the whole year, 2020 may start a large horizontal cycle of the property market for 3 years or longer.
The reasons are as follows:
1. The idea of high-speed economic development and high quality has not changedAnd no signs of stimulus with the property market. The keynote of the policy of “no housing and speculation, stable land prices, stable house prices, stable expectations” remains unchanged.
2. The shed reform has slowed down significantly (19 years compared with the same period in 18 years). The keynote of the 2020 shed reform is still “strict scope and standard of shed reforms”. .
3. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 has been stable at 8% -8.5% since it broke 10% in April 2017, and housing prices have also obviously moved sideways during this period. There is no expectation of a substantial monetary easing in the future.
4. As of the third quarter of 2019, the leverage ratio of residents in Hangzhou, Xiamen, Wenzhou, Haikou, and Shenzhen has been higher than 80% and 56.3% in the country. It has risen by 35 percentage points in ten years, which is equivalent to that of the United States from 2000 to 2007, and has increased. Space is very aggressive.
In summary, the 2020 probability will be a year of continued sideways. The overall house price is stable at plus or minus 5% in the bird cage market, and there is only a chance of structural rise under the urban differentiation.
3.
Knot
Based on the above analysis, regarding the purchase or sale of a house in 2020, we give the following conclusions for reference:
1.2020, when buying a house, you must be in front of Yangchun, or after Yangchun, be alert to brainwashing during the New Year.
2.2020, the shed reform plan is not expected to exceed 2019. More and more third- and fourth-tier cities may not be able to control their “fall-limit orders.” Moving towards a downfall will become the main theme of many third- and fourth-tier cities. Online investment properties can take advantage of the high season.
3. The Housing and Urban Construction Bureau meeting emphasized “strengthening urban renewal and upgrading of existing housing.” Therefore, in the era of negative interest rates, real estate investment opportunities are becoming less and less. Today, the first- and second-tier core locations and the ring-first-tier properties are even more precious.
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