Production | Bullet Finance
Author Yin Taibai
Responsible editor | in the forest
Stuck in a whirlpool of public opinion
Illegal addition of cyclamate to alcoholic liquor products has basically come to an end.
According to the “Announcement on Special Sampling Results of Alcoholic Alcohol and Sweeteners in December 2019” issued by Hunan Market Supervision and Administration Bureau, Hunan Food Quality Supervision and Inspection Institute conducted inspections on Relevant products produced by Hunan Jiujiu Wine Co., Ltd., which are sold in Zhuzhou and Xiangtan markets, have undergone special spot checks. In accordance with national laws and regulations and sampling requirements, random sampling was carried out in the circulation market through purchase methods. A total of 30 batches of products produced by Jiugui Jiu Co., Ltd. were sampled, involving 6 distribution units. After inspection, none of the 30 batches of alcoholic alcoholic beverages tested in this special spot had any cyclamate (quantity limit 0.0001g / kg), which met the standard requirements.
The results of the sampling survey conducted by the Market Supervision Administration of Hunan Province put an end to the public report of Shi Lei, the original distributor of alcoholic drinks, on the illegal addition of cyclamate to alcoholic drinks.
Although the official returned the innocence of alcoholic drinks, the six-day illegal addition of cyclamate still caused a lot of negative effects on the alcoholic drinks and even the entire liquor sector. On December 23, the third day after Shi Lei publicly reported the illegal addition of cyclamate to alcoholic liquor products, the alcoholic liquor suffered a daily limit at the opening of the market, and the market value evaporated 1.27 billion yuan. %, Most liquor stocks are green across the board.
The event continues to ferment. As of the close of December 25, the liquor sector had fallen by nearly 1%. Among them, Jiuguijiu led the decline with 3.4%, and eight liquor stocks including Yanghe and Guizhou Maotai fell more than 1%.
In fact, this is not the first time that alcoholic wine has been pushed to the cusp of public opinion.
(Photo / Photonet, based on VRF authorization)
On November 19, 2012, the alcoholic liquor was detected to be 2.6 times higher than the plasticizer. For a while, the liquor sector suffered a severe setback, and liquor stocks such as Maotai and Wuliangye all fell sharply, and the market value of the entire liquor sector evaporated more than 33 billion yuan.
The cost is extremely heavy. After the plasticizer exceeded the standard, the performance of alcoholic liquor showed a downward trend.
According to the 2013 annual report, the total revenue of Jiuguijiu was RMB 685 million, a year-on-year decrease of 58.54% compared to 1.652 billion yuan in 2012. Net profit was RMB-37 million, a huge year-on-year increase from 495 million yuan in 2012 Down 107.47%.
This situation has not improved in 2014. According to the 2014 annual report, Jiuguijiu’s total revenue was 338 million yuan, a continued decline of 43.33% year-on-year, while net profit continued to lose -97 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 164.42%.
The vitally injured alcoholic has to enter a long adjustment period.
Life is too many
Alcoholic drinks have also had highlight moments. At its peak, its edge even covered Guizhou Maotai and Luzhou Laojiao.
In 1997, Jiuguijiu was listed on A shares, and the net profit in the year of listing reached 160 million yuan. In 1998, alcoholic wine performanceBrilliant, with a net profit of RMB 193 million, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%, ranking second in the industry.
In comparison, the net profit of Moutai in Guizhou during the same period was RMB 147 million, and the net profit of Luzhou Laojiao was RMB 123 million. At that time, the net profit of alcoholic liquor was 1.31 times that of Moutai, Cellar 1.57 times. In addition to the net profit surpassing both, the retail price of Jiujiu liquor also exceeds Guizhou Maotai and Luzhou Laojiao.
Alcoholic liquor originally had the strength to rank first in the liquor industry, but the peak status did not last for long.
The first “haunted” incident of Jiuguijiu occurred on September 14, 2005. The cause of the incident was that Liu Hong, then chairman and managing director of Jiujiijiu, suddenly resigned and disappeared mysteriously. Jiujiijiu’s stock was suspended by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
Behind Liu Hong’s lightning resignation, an unprecedented black hole of funds slowly emerged.
The 420 million yuan equity transfer funds have been seized by Chenggong Group, the largest shareholder of Jiuguijiu, for a long time, and without being noticed by the company’s directors, supervisors and other executives, they have been transferred to the relevant accounts of Chenggong Group. The chairman of the successful group is Liu Hong, who has disappeared.
The funds were originally deposited in the three accounts of the Jianxiang Sub-branch of Changsha City Commercial Bank. After being transferred away silently, the remaining balance in the three accounts was only 503 yuan.
In the semi-annual report of 2005, Jiujiujiu disclosed that the company account had 436 million yuan of funds, and the main source of this fund was the equity transfer of Hunan Xiangquan Group, the largest shareholder of Jiujiujiu.
In 2003, Hunan Xiangquan Group transferred the equity held by Jiujiu Jiu in July and December respectively to return the funds occupied by Jiujiu Jiu. Among them, the successful group transferred 88 million shares, holding 29.04% of the shares, Shanghai Hongyi transferred 30 million shares, holding 9.89% of the shares, these two transfer funds totaled 420 million yuan. After the completion of the equity transaction, the successful group jumped to become the largest shareholder of Jiuguijiu.
However, although this fund was transferred to Jiujiujiu’s account in accordance with the equity transfer agreement, Jiujiujiu was still unable to obtain control of this fund, and it was not discovered until after the mysterious evaporation.
The 420 million funds were reduced to shareholders’ private house money, which caused the cash flow of Jiujiijiu to be cut off. Due to lack of money to pay off the debt, Jiujiijiu was brought to court by the creditors, and the assets of Jiujiijiu were frozen by justice.
According to the 2005 financial report, the total revenue of Jiujiijiu is RMBAt 248 million yuan, the net profit loss was more than 290 million yuan, which was basically paralyzed.
In October 2005, Jiujiu Jiu brought a lawsuit to the court, and finally reached a repayment agreement with the successful group.
Successful Group subsequently handed over the equity in the hands, and the two parties no longer had any problems, and Hunan Xiangquan Group became the largest shareholder of Jiuguijiu again.
But Hunan Xiangquan Group has not been able to support alcoholics for too long. In the same year, Hunan Xiangquan Group applied for bankruptcy and repayment on the grounds of poor management, insolvency, and inability to settle its due debts.
Unfortunately, the local government took over the alcohol drink, but this is only a temporary transition.
In 2007, Zhonghuang Co., Ltd. became the largest shareholder of Jiuguijiu through auction and acquisition, holding 31% of the shares. Zhonghuang Co., Ltd. belongs to Huafu Group, while Huafu Group is affiliated to the SASAC and has funds and resources.
After the rebirth, Jiujiu Jiu finally turned a profit in 2009 with the reputation and reputation that he had accumulated before.
According to the 2009-2012 annual report, the total revenue of Jiuguijiu in these four years was 365 million yuan, 560 million yuan, 962 million yuan and 1.652 billion yuan. At the same time, net profit also increased significantly. , Respectively, 558.5 million yuan, 709.4 million yuan, 193 million yuan and 495 million yuan.
In four years, the total revenue of Jiujiijiu increased by 4.5 times, and the net profit increased by 8.5 times. However, when the performance of alcoholic wine continued to improve, there was a second “haunted” incident.
On November 19, 2012, the alcoholic liquor was detected to be 2.6 times higher than the plasticizer, resulting in a major earthquake in the entire liquor industry.
The house leak happens to rain. In 2013, a decree restricting the consumption of San Gong once again caused industry panic, and the liquor industry was the first to bear the brunt.
After two consecutive years of losses, at the end of 2014, Huafu Group, the controlling shareholder of Jiuguijiu, as a wholeMerged into COFCO Group, the alcoholic wine is also merged into COFCO Group. In 2016, the management of Jiujiijiu was greatly adjusted. Jiang Guojin, who was the general manager of COFCO, became the chairman of Jiujiijiu.
After COFCO became a master, it began to focus on brands and increase marketing investment. The performance of alcoholic drinks gradually began to improve. In 2015, alcoholic wine turned profitable again.
From 2016 to 2018, the total revenue growth rate of Jiuguijiu was 8.92%, 34.13%, and 35.13%; the net profit growth was 22.60%, 62.18%, and 26.45%.
It is not difficult to see that after the self-plasticizer exceeded the standard, alcoholic wine has always been committed to brand recovery, and its performance has also greatly improved until the third “haunted” incident.
Long road ahead
Although the illegal addition of cyclamate drunk alcoholic drinks for a time, before Hunan Market Supervision Administration released the results of the sample survey, China Merchants Securities, China National Securities, CITIC Securities and other institutions have expressed their optimism about alcoholic drinks. liqueur.
On December 24, China Merchants Securities pointed out in a research report released that after COFCO’s entry into the alcoholic liquor in 2016, the quality of control has improved significantly. This incident has a negative impact on the brand in the short term, but has no long-term impact.
GuoXin Securities also stated in its research report that the company’s governance under the management of COFCO is becoming more and more perfect, and the company has encountered plasticizer incidents before. The company has internally reflected and learned lessons. This incident did have a certain impact on the company’s image. It is expected that the normal operation of the company will have little effect. In the short term, it will suppress the company’s stock price and even the liquor sector, but it will worry about the development of the liquor industry in the medium and long term.
The popularity of alcoholic drinks by institutions is not without foundation.
According to the annual reports from 2015 to 2018, the total revenue of Jiuguijiu was 601 million yuan, 655 million yuan, 878 million yuan and 1.19 billion yuan, and net profit was 89 million yuan, 109 million yuan, and 1.76 respectively. 100 million yuan and 223 million yuan.
The third quarter of 2019 financial report shows that Jiuguijiu’s total revenue was RMB 968 million, a year-on-year increase of 27%; net profit was 184 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%.
Although the performance is good, it is not easy for the alcoholic wine to regain its glory.
According to the financial reports of the first three quarters of 2019, the net profit of Jiuguijiu in the first quarter, second quarter and third quarter were 20.99%, 21.98% and 10.01%, showing a downward trend. In a horizontal comparison, the net profit margins of Guizhou Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao, which were once left behind by alcoholics, were 53.19% and 30.2%, respectively.
As of the close of December 26, the total market value of Guizhou Maotai and Luzhou Laojiao was 1,425.9 billion yuan and 118.249 billion yuan, respectively. In comparison, the total market value of alcoholic liquor is only 11.931 billion yuan.
In addition to its performance and market value, it has fallen far behind its former losers. In terms of brand positioning, Jiuguijiu is also difficult to rival Guizhou Maotai and Luzhou Laojiao.
At present, alcoholic wine mainly has three series of internal reference, alcoholic and Xiangquan. The internal reference series is positioned at the high end, the alcoholic series is positioned at the next high end, and the Xiangquan series is positioned at the middle and low end.
A realistic situation that has to be faced is that Jiuji wine is still in the cultivation period that impacts the high-end market, and Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye and other brands are already representative brands in the high-end market.
Judging from the development trend of the liquor industry, the overall trend is that the stronger is stronger and the weaker is constant. According to statistics from Industry Information Network, China’s high-end liquor market is gradually moving towards an oligopoly, with 600 yuan or more as the dividing line. Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao and Mengzhilan firmly occupy most of the market, especially Maotai and Wuliangye. These two giants account for 80% to 85% of the high-end market.
The remaining 15% to 20% of the high-end market has been listed by Mengzhilan, Guojiao 1573, Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu and other liquor companies that have not yet listed and are strong, such as Jiannanchun and Langjiu. Partition. This also means that it is not optimistic to try to target Guizhou Moutai and impact the high-end market.
In March 2019, at the strategy conference of alcoholic wines held during the national spring wine and liquor festival, alcoholic wines proposed to return to the first camp of white spirits and shouted “3 billion in the short term, 5 billion in the medium term, and 10 billion in the long term “Sales target. However, according to the current growth rate of alcoholic drinks and the frequency of “haunted”, this dreamIt may not be easy to achieve.