After disclosing Q3’s unaudited financial report on November 13, 2019, the stock price of Vipshop ( NYSE: VIPS ) has increased by 27.4%, The market value is back to $ 10 billion.
Everyone who knows about China shares knows about this “dark stock”. In the eighth year of listing, Vipshop will not be a demon but almost out of the blue.
The stock price will no longer be “demon”
In March 2012, Vipshop was “blooded on the market” with an issue price of only US $ 6.5, but it still has n’t escaped the “break”. It fell to US $ 4.39 at the end of the month and its market value was only US $ 240 million.
From June 2012, Vipshop began to exert its strength. The market value before the stock split in November 2014 climbed to US $ 228.6, becoming the “Moutai” of China’s stocks. After the stock split, the upward trend has not abated, and by April 2015, it has increased by 70 times. The average annual rate of increase is more than 300%.
In those years, there were continuous media outlets saying that “Vippin will be overvalued”, but it was always faced; the “air force” in the capital market has been aggressive for several times, and “Wen Dou” released short reports and “Martial arts.” “It was borrowed stocks and smashed them. As a result,” Wendou “and” Wudou “all returned, and short sellers were dubbed as” intelligence by intelligence “by Vipshop executives.
But after reaching its peak in April 2015, Vipshop can no longer “monster”. The former “short nightmare” has finally begun to “invite countless bulls and bend their backs.” By December 2017, the market value had fallen to a quarter of its peak.
Looking back at history, we found that the stock price of Vipshop is highly positively correlated with revenue growth. During the period of rise, in 2012, 2013 and 2014, the year-on-year growth rates of revenue were 204.7%, 145.1% and 121.9%. During the fall, the year-on-year growth rates of 2015, 2016 and 2017 were 73.8%, 41% and 28.6% respectively.
Coincidentally, JD’s stock price correction also started when revenue growth fell below 50%. Pinduoduo lost billions in a single quarter, but its market capitalization is close to JD.com because its revenue growth rate is more than 150%.
Dividing investors from the dimension of “seeing the present or looking at the future”: the former’s core indicator for judging the value of a company is profit; the latter only looks at the growth rate, but it is impossible to see Taishan.
The former has conservative bidding, aversion to risk, and ordinary companies are difficult to enter the law. The latter can foresee the future. For example, it can see that JD becomes Ali and Pinduoduo becomes Amazon. In fact, it only wants to drive the stock price higher. monstrous”. Even in mature capital markets, there are many “second-class investors”.
In the first few years of listing, Vipshop will attract “second-class investors” with a high-growth posture. After the period of rapid growth, the “second-class investors” exited and the stock price fell sharply. Investors who valued the long-term value of Vipshop took up the dips. In addition, Tencent and JD.com’s two major industrial investors participated in the stock, and Vipshop’s stock price bottomed out. At this point, the investor group has been reborn, and they will not let the target “demon” rise.
In December 2018, the stock price of Vipshop closed at US $ 5.46, corresponding to a market value of US $ 3.65 billion, about 22% of its peak value.
On December 27, 2019, the stock price of Vipshop closed at $ 14.52, an increase of 165.9% from the beginning of the year, and its market value was close to $ 10 billion.
Bottlepoints for user growth
Vipshop is a purer self-employed e-commerce platform than JD. The sales revenue of goods is fully recognized as revenue ( Jingdong only recognizes the full amount of self-operated income as revenue ). In 2018, Vipshop’s merchandise sales revenue was 81.51 billion, accounting for 96.4% of revenue; in the first three quarters of 2019, merchandise sales revenue was 60.66 billion, accounting for95.3%.
In the early years, Vipshop’s financial report did not mention the total transaction amount GMV, and it was not “documented” until Q2 2017.
Using the sales revenue of Vipshop in each quarter as the numerator and GMV as the denominator, the transaction rate in the past 7 quarters is calculated to be between 58% and 64%. In Q3 2019, merchandise sales revenue and GMV were 18.48 billion and 31.7 billion, respectively, with a turnover rate of 58.3%. #GMV 有四成 是 水 #
GMV not only has a lot of water, but also the statistical caliber of each e-commerce platform is different. On the other hand, it is difficult for accountants to verify. So this data is of little value except PR. Ali and JD.com have stopped disclosing GMV in the quarter, and they only took it in the annual report, only to fight hard and wave this “breaking flag.”
Vipshop ’s core e-commerce business has sluggish growth. In the past four quarters ( Q4 2018 ~ Q3 2019 ), year-on-year increase in merchandise sales revenue They were 6.5%, 5.6%, 8.1%, and 8.5%. # 全 是 个 位数 #
Similar to Ali and JD.com, the main driver of Vipshop’s revenue is the growth of active users.
On March 4, 2018, the Vipshop flagship store went online at JD.com; on April 8, the same year, Vipshop entered the WeChat “Jiugongge”; 2018In Q2, the number of quarterly active users reached 29.8 million, an increase of 6% year-on-year; in Q4 2018, the number of quarterly active users reached 32.4 million, an increase of 13%; Revenue growth was only 14.5%.
At the same time accept the “two masters” blessing, user growth has improved but not amazing, it seems that Tencent, Jingdong can only help Vipshop to this point.
In a country with a population of 1.4 billion, Vipshop, which has only 30 million and 60 million active users in the quarter and the year, respectively, can only be regarded as a “niche public e-commerce”. The sinking market is also a thunderstorm and a small amount of rain, otherwise the number of quarterly active users will not hover around 30 million throughout the year ( Note: E-commerce defines active users based on ” “There is at least one shopping during this period”, which has different meaning from “daily” and “monthly” in other contexts ).
Divide the quarterly GMV by the number of orders to get the customer unit price; divide the quarterly product sales revenue by the number of active users to get the per capita quarterly consumption amount. The seasonal fluctuations of the two groups of values are obvious. The peaks and troughs appear in the fourth and third quarters, respectively.
The peak consumption per capita in 2017 was 821 yuan, and Q4 2018 was 772 yuan, which was 49 yuan lower;
The lowest point of quarterly per capita consumption in 2018 appeared in the third quarter, which was 643 yuan, and the quarterly per capita consumption in the third quarter of 2019 was 577 yuan, which was 66 yuan lower;
The unit price of passengers in Q3 2019 is 248 yuan, which is 36 yuan lower than Q3 2018.
