Downward shocks, why growth
Over the past 40 years, the average growth rate of China’s economy has exceeded 9%, and per capita GDP has increased 60 times. However, Yang Xianling, the founder of the Kongbai Institute, judged in his personal new year’s speech “The Marginal Revolution in the Big Habitat” on December 27. Under the law of economic development, China, as a high-speed economic growth Several years will enter a downward cycle, which is also an inevitable trend. “Prosperity itself contains the seeds of recession, and recession is the underlying driving force for the continuous progress of human society and enterprises.”
Under such a macro environment, how will China’s real estate industry go? Yang Xianling believes that the real estate boom in the past 10 years has been driven by leverage, but because the current macro environment is in a downward phase, it will inevitably lead to a further decline in the real estate industry. Affected by this, the real estate market’s cycle from high leverage to high house prices has been cut off.
From the perspective of the general environment, don’t expect to relax policy. “Do not live in real estate” and “three stability” are the main themes of regulation. At the same time, for all practitioners, housing prices do not rise, it is the greatest protection for all industry participants. Second, urban differentiation will further intensify, and the “3 + 6” urban circle pattern will be the main battlefield in the future.
The population ratios of the three major urban areas around Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou-Shenzhen are only 6% -7%, but their total real estate transaction value accounts for nearly 20%. The future business layout is not a security tradition. The second, third, and fourth lines are defined according to the logic of the city circle. There are two core indicators: first, whether its population is a net inflow, and second, whether the distance from the central city is maintained at a relatively reasonable commute. Within range. In addition, whether there is a convergence trend between per capita GDP and central cities will also affect the market purchasing power and prospects of the urban circle.
Yang Xianling judges that the industry’s unipolar era dominated by increments will move towards the era of stock-dominated and multi-pole power games, and a 30 trillion-dollar transaction and service market will be formed in the big-dwelling sector. During the period, the new house market entered a downward cycle in terms of total volume. Second-hand housing ushered in a cycle of “more housing and less customers”, increasing supply of available inventory and prolonging the elimination cycle.
But the “golden age” in the field of large residence has not ended, but the form has changed. If the past is the golden age of incremental development, the future is the golden age of circulation.
At the current stage, the most profound changes in the field of large-scale living have restructured the industrial chain centered on “transactional capabilities.” Some roles fade from the center of the stage, and some roles move from the edge to the center. The core of the fringe revolution is the transfer and transfer of industrial discourse power, a game between a new species and old species. In this process, multiple roles including developers, agents, intermediaries, leased / long-term rental apartments, property, decoration, real estate Internet, real estate finance, etc. will compete for the right to speak in the industry together. Among them, intermediaries will quickly rise as marginal roles, such as shells.
For the relationship between the channel and the developer, Yang Xianling believes that the essence is in the real estate