This article is from the public number: Write a story for you ( ID: raistlin2017) , author: Raistlin, from FIG title: Oriental IC
01
It’s another New Year.
In the past, there will be New Year’s wishes in the New Year. I will summarize what I have experienced in the past year in my circle of friends. I will count down the time to send a Happy New Year. I want to be with people and not want to spend the day alone.
However, these years have gradually disappeared. In recent years, I gradually feel that the New Year is also an ordinary day and live a normal life. There is a picture on the Taiwanese network:
I feel that I am now between “” playing mahjong to dawn “and” watching TV at home “. It is not impossible to sleep, and I have no expectation for the New Year.
In the past, even if I reviewed all night,s = “img-center-box”> ( A table that makes no sense at all)
This table is obviously the product of China’s rapid economic growth and the rapid development of emerging industries, but it has become increasingly difficult.
The frustration brought by the inability to develop is huge, which will make our “middle-aged crisis” even more serious.
04
Not only is the Internet industry in the cold winter, in fact, more industries are also experiencing greater challenges.
Samsung has evacuated its factory from China. One of the world’s largest electronics manufacturers has sent a large amount of termination subsidies to every employee before leaving. However, its departure still has a huge impact on the local economy.
Oracle China has laid off a large number of employees, paid N + 6 compensation, and many people are unwilling to leave.
Even the treatment within the system has deteriorated. My classmates who are civil servants in the country often complain that less money and more benefits are getting less and less, and some are even considering changing careers.
In fact, these are not surprising. In Q3 2019, China ’s GDP growth was only 6%, the lowest in the past two decades. Every developed country that has experienced rapid growth has experienced such a period of time, which is normal.
However, we are a bit different. Our per capita GDP is now less than 10,000 US dollars. However, our fertility rate is already lower than that of many developed countries, which is close to Japan and South Korea with a per capita GDP of more than 30,000 US dollars.
Dr. Liang Jianzhang has calculated an account in the article:
But after that, the birth population will face avalanche due to the weakening of the accumulation effect, especially the shrinking of women by more than 40% at the peak of childbearing age in the next ten years.
For most people, fertility is just a statistic, no matter how high or low it is. In particular, the population born in the past with high fertility rates is still alive. Although the number of births each year has been significantly less than in the early 1950s, the total population is still growing, making few people think thatHow shocking it will be to realize the future decline in population. The statistics of the above countries from 2010 to 2015 show that the total fertility rate averages less than 1.2. Even if the National Bureau of Statistics data underestimates the fertility rate by 15% over the past few years, the actual fertility rate is less than 1.4; at a replacement level of 2.2, this means that every other generation, the annual birth population will decrease by 36.4%. Generation will be reduced by more than 60%. If the fertility rate has remained stable at 1.4, the total population will also shrink at a rate of halving every 50 years. Taking a step back 10,000, even if the fertility rate is as high as 1.6 as announced by the Health and Family Planning Commission, that means a reduction of more than 40% every 50 years; this is also a completely unsustainable fertility state.
This unsustainable fertility rate will directly lead to the aging of China ’s population, the increase in labor force, the decrease in new consumption, and the increase in pension deficits.
At the end of July 2015, the United Nations Population Program released the “World Population Outlook 2015”. The lowest predicted value of China’s population by the end of this century is 613 million, of which there may be more than half of the elderly. Imagine when you walk into Shanghai In Xintiandi Bar Street, it was found that like the hospital, there were old men and women over 70 years old everywhere, which was almost the scene.
If this is the case, then the pension you pay is likely to become a joke, because no government keeps your current pension to give you pension in the future, but uses the pension you pay now. Support the elderly who are now retired.
But when we are old, because of the low fertility rate and the serious aging of the population, it is very likely that all the people in the country are elderly. You may have to work until the age of 80 to retire, and the pension you receive after retirement cannot support you at all. your life.
Of course, the labor force is declining, the population is aging, and there are many other hazards such as the disappearance of the right-age labor force, the decline in consumption, and the disappearance of the demographic dividend.
Japan and South Korea have a lower fertility rate, but Japan and South Korea are already rich, and we have not.
This year is 2020. A population census will be conducted every 10 years, and that number may be even more shocking.
05
2019 has passed and 2019 is not going well.
The year 2020 is here, and I have nothing to look forward to in 2020.