This article is from WeChat public account: Bullet Finance ( ID: wwwhygc) , author: Yin Bai, the title figure from: vision China
“New energy vehicles are not selling well. Sales in the second half of the year are more than 30% lower than in the first half. As far as the industry is concerned, this year’s sales are likely to show the first annual negative growth.” Zhang Wei, head of a 4S shop, told “Bullet Finance “,” A large part of the reason is that the relevant departments have gradually cancelled subsidies. “
The pessimism of the practitioners confirms the downturn in the new energy vehicle industry.
Statistics from China Automobile Industry Association show that in November 2019, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles were 110,000 and 95,000, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 36.9% and 43.7%. In fact, this has been the year-on-year decline in sales of new energy vehicles for five consecutive months since July.
Different from today’s decline, four years ago, the new energy automobile industry was another scene. In 2015, with the support and promotion of policies, the domestic new energy vehicle market grew rapidly. By 2018, China’s new energy vehicle sales reached 1.26 million, accounting for 63% of global sales, and it ranks first in the world.
However, no one expected that the market for new energy vehicles would cool down rapidly within a year. At present, with the serious decline in sales of new energy vehicles, the “heart” power battery industry of new energy vehicles is the first to face the cold winter.
1, How long can I fly after the tuyere?
In the past few years, due to the continuous improvement of the new energy vehicle market, the upstream and downstream industrial chains have been driven and activated, and the power battery industry has attracted particular attention. In 2018, 7 of the top 10 power battery companies in global shipments were Chinese companies.
Among them, the growth of the Ningde era is the most fierce, and it has even become the number one power battery supplier in the world. The strong competitors such as BYD, Panasonic, and Samsung have been left behind by them.
However, real money subsidies did not last long.
After 2017, relevant departments began to gradually reduce subsidies. On March 26, 2019, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a notice to set March 26, 2019 to June 25, 2019 as a transition period to reduce new energy vehicle subsidies. , Raise the threshold for subsidies, add operating mileage requirements, and prohibit local subsidies.
On June 24, 2019, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology once again issued a document stating that it has decided to abolish the “Specification Conditions for the Automotive Power Battery Industry” and relevant departments will completely cancel the subsidy policy for the new energy automobile industry in 2020.
Actually, this is a clue. Since 2018, Samsung SDI, LG Chemicals, and SKI, which once quitted the Chinese market, have made a comeback. Among them, SKI and Tianqi Lithium signed a supply contract and acquired battery materials company Lingbao Huaxin; LG Chemical and Huayou Cobalt Joint Venture; Samsung SDI restarted the Xi’an battery project at the end of 2018; Panasonic chose to significantly expand Suzhou and Dalian’s power battery production capacity.
This trend was also foreseen within the Ningde era. In February 2018, Zeng Yuqun, the chairman of Ningde Times, sent a group of employees entitled “A typhoon is coming, will pigs really fly?” ”Email reminds those contented employees to be wary of the cruel market environment after policy barriers are lifted.
Zeng Yuqun has become a slang. In the second half of 2019, the typhoon really left because the negative impact of the subsidy on the industry has not disappeared. The new energy automobile industry and the power battery industry are rapidly ripened by policies and subsidies, which is actually not conducive to the long-term development of enterprises.
Uncertainty facing the Ningde era is increasing from the encouragement of innovation, the encouragement of technological iteration, the improvement of the global competitiveness of new energy vehicles, and the gradual abolition of subsidy policies.
This uncertainty comes mainly from two aspects: on the one hand, when the sales of new energy vehicles will bottom out in the context of subsidy decline or even disappear; on the other hand, whether the Ningde era can chaos in the industry During the period, it continued to maintain technological leadership.
Apart from the “unicorn” halo, how long can the Ningde era fly after the air vent?
02, exposed hidden concerns under mythology
In October 2019, Fortune Magazine published a list of the world’s top 50 companies, of which 16 Chinese companies were on the list. In the top 50 list, Ningde Times ranked 4th in Xiaomi, Ctrip and Alibaba.
It is worth noting that Ningde Times is also the only new energy technology company on the list.
Fortune magazine commented on the era of Ningde: the company is the world’s largest supplier of electric vehicle batteries, with a profit of $ 512 million in 2018. Ningde Times supplies batteries to BMW, Volkswagen, Honda, and several major Chinese car companies. It is also developing technology in cooperation with Toyota. In recent quarters, NingdeGeneration growth is strong, and it is under pressure from foreign competition.
To this day, Ningde Times has become the world’s largest power battery installed powerhouse with a total market value of more than 204.9 billion yuan. However, the rise of the Ningde era cannot be separated from the boost of the BMW Group.
In 2012, when BMW Brilliance was preparing the first high-end pure electric vehicle “Zino No. 1E”, it finally decided to abandon BYD and choose to set up a one-year cooperation with Ningde Times.
Compared to BYD ’s own closed operation model for BYD ’s own production, the Ningde era has adopted completely different development ideas, such as actively opening up the supply and taking into account both lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries on both legs.
The open attitude brings many opportunities to the Ningde era. Ningde Times and BMW Group jointly developed the “Zino No. 1E” power battery system, which was produced and manufactured by Ningde Times. Since then, Ningde Times has become the sole battery supplier of the BMW Group in Greater China.
With the cooperation with BMW, Ningde Times quickly opened the power battery market and became the first domestic power battery company to successfully enter the international auto supplier system.
Compared with the Internet industry, the business growth cycle and profit growth of the manufacturing industry are usually extremely slow, but it only took 8 years in the Ningde era to achieve a leap forward of 100 billion, with a market share of 41%. The growth rate has even crushed many Internet companies.
How did the Ningde era suddenly rise? Perhaps some clues can be found in the financial data over the years.
According to the prospectus disclosure, the business segment of the Ningde era is mainly divided into three parts, namely power battery systems, energy storage systems and lithium battery materials.
Among them, the power battery system includes batteries, modules and battery packs. The products are mainly square batteries. The application fields include electric passenger cars, electric passenger cars, and electric logistics vehicles. The energy storage system includes battery cells, Module, electric box and battery cabinet, mainly adopt lithium iron phosphate as cathode materialDi battery’s independent split has been put on the agenda, and it is expected to conduct an IPO around 2022.
It’s easy to beat the mountains, but it’s hard to defend the mountains.
Temporary technology leadership does not mean always leading, and policy dividends cannot be eaten for a lifetime. With the continuous emergence of new technologies, policy subsidies have completely disappeared, and the rivers and mountains laid down by the Ningde era are about to undergo a big wash brand.
Zeng Yuqun had already anticipated that the Ningde era would end up in crisis. He once emphasized more than once “Don’t hide in the bed of policy.”
Ningde Times is facing a siege by a number of competitors, but I do n’t know if this “unicorn” that is going smoothly is able to deal with the cruel jungle law?
The pictures in this article come from: Photograph Network, based on VRF authorization.
This article is from the WeChat public account: Bullet Finance (ID: wwwhygc) < / span> , author: Yin Bai