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Stand at the crossroads of 2019 and 2020 and look back at the storms of the past year with you.

In “氪 记 2019 | Top Ten Business Events of the Year: In the Year of Change, Who’s Up and Down?” (Part 1) “, we reviewed the crisis of Huawei’s physical inventory, the opening of the first year of 5G commercialization, Rui Xing ran all the way, the madness of listing and listing in just 17 months, and the establishment of the science and technology board The changes brought to the capital market, as well as the weight of Wework’s listing and Uber’s plunge in stock prices, Sun Zhengyi’s bow and introspection.

The impact of these five events has shocked the entire business community.

In the next five major events, the commercial influence may not be so great, but your life is closer to you: countless people have watched Li Jiaqi ’s live broadcast and bought products recommended by e-commerce anchors; People who smoke e-cigarettes can often be seen in buses, bus stops and even offices. After the version number was reissued, the tens of millions of “eating chicken” games “Peace Elite” began to be commercialized. Those who wanted to buy new energy vehicles Users, look at the layoff news from Xiaopeng and Weilai, I am a little hesitant; fresh e-commerce that returned you fruit yesterday, suddenly closed and laid off today.

The five events in the first part are shaking your world. The five events in the next part may directly affect your life.

The e-commerce live broadcast air outlet is still the same, but the second Li Jiaqi is hard to find

Business influence: ★★★★

Social attention: ★★★★★

The “Li Jiaqi phenomenon” is like a whirlwind sweeping the e-commerce industry in 2019. Online traffic is in a hurry, and e-commerce platforms have begun to look for increments through socialization and content. Li Jiaqi is one of the most representative.

During the Double Eleventh promotion in 2019, Li Jiaqi reached the top of Weibo search nearly 20 times. Such popularity is beyond the reach of popular stars. Corresponding to his popularity is extremely high commercial value: during the promotion period, Li Jiaqi refreshed sales reports in units of 100 million yuan every day. Brands competed to bid around his “schedule”, and popular stars rushed into his Gan Dang green leaves sell goods together.

Picture from Li Jiaqi Weibo

Any success can be traced. As early as 2017, Li Jiaqi joined Taobao Live Broadcasting as a member of “Amoy anchor”. In December 2018, Taobao Live broadcasted an invitation to Li Jiaqi and his team to create a “Global Network Red”. The Li Jiaqi team officially opened accounts for Douyin, Qiaoshou, Xiaohongshu and other channels. Li Jiaqi himself also ushered in the circle in 2019 Chance of popularity.

Li Jiaqi harvested a wave of fans by relying on the lipstick test video released on the vibrato and matched with the magical “OMG, buy it, buy it, buy it” and other sales words. In this way, “anchor Li Jiaqi” has been transformed into “star Li Jiaqi”. This influence is difficult for anchors in the heavier trading scenes such as Wei Ya but limited to e-commerce channels.

Li Jiaqi’s success cannot be separated from personal efforts and blessings, but the bigger booster is capital. Li Jiaqi is not alone. He is affiliated with an MCN organization named Mei ONE. The investment institutions behind Mei ONE include Sina Weibo and Alibaba. At present, the United States ONE company employs more than 300 people, almost all of which are operating around the IP of Li Jiaqi.

Li Jiaqi’s IP is popular, but it is difficult to reproduce. On the one hand, for companies and institutions, often a head anchor can feed an MCN, they tend to pour all of them, betting most of their net worth on one person, it is difficult to have the resources and energy to incubate the second head Ministry anchor. Just as Ruhan can only make one Zhang Dayi, it is difficult for Mei ONE to own a second Li Jiaqi.

On the other hand, the platform ’s previous strategy was to create a benchmark anchor case, and then leverage the entire platform ’s traffic. Now that the e-commerce live broadcast ecosystem is close to maturity, the platform’s incubation strategy is also changing. Both Taobao and Douyin have tightened their investment in head anchors, and the newly entered platforms such as Pinduoduo have also opened up new paths, such as following the decentralized mechanism of Xiaohongshu, hoping to incubate a large number of small and medium anchors to spread content Win by volume. In addition, the traffic weight of platforms such as Taobao Live also began to tilt to the merchants, that is, the store broadcast method was used to retain the traffic in brand stores.

E-commerce live broadcast is creating a brand new 100 billion-level incremental market. 2019 has also become the most glorious year in this field, and crowds of people are coming in. Rather than build more Li Jiaqi, this industry needs high-quality content and the awe of its practitioners to be content in order to last forever.

The e-cigarette boom is retreating: the era of the barbaric growth of e-cigarettes is over

Business influence: ★★★★

Social attention: ★★★★

In the first half of 2019, the madness of the e-cigarette circuit is staggering.

High profit margins, huge market potential, low entry barriers, and sought after capital make the e-cigarette market a paradise for startups. As long as it is operated properly, it can achieve high profits in the short term. The e-cigarette market has been very hot in 2018. Luo Yonghao’s high profile has added a lot of attention to this market. Former hammer technology No. 001 employee Zhu Xiaomu and Luo Yonghao have invested in the e-cigarette industry. The 315 roll call has also attracted more and more attention to e-cigarettes.

In early 2019, IFC Securities issued a report predicting that the size of the electronic cigarette market in the next four years will exceed 300 billion yuan. However, due to the crowded circuit, it is difficult for China to have an e-cigarette giant with the same weight as Juul. The vast incremental space allows everyone to go hand in hand.

In addition to the gathering of startups, the national team has also poured into this market. Guojin Securities pointed out that China Tobacco Industrial Corporation has been accelerating the research and development and design of HNB-related products. Among them, 6 companies including Yunyan and Sichuan Tobacco already have relevant product R & D and manufacturing capabilities, and already have products circulating in overseas markets. .

But policy orientation is the sword of Damocles in this industry. On November 1, 2019, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration and the State Administration of Market Supervision and Administration issued the “Notice on Further Protecting Minors from Electronic Cigarettes”, which prohibits the sale or marketing of electronic cigarettes online. Online channels have been blocked, and offline has also been affected, the hustle and bustle of the electronic cigarette industry has temporarily subsided.

Image from Ruijing Creative

Although most head players have very low dependence on the Internet, the “online ban” will not affect it at all. However, e-cigarettes are no longer the darlings of the primary market. In the first half of the year, domestic e-cigarette circuit financing exceeded 1 billion yuan.

The e-cigarette boom is accompanied by chaos. Industry sources tell that in addition to the fact that the first-tier brands are more standardized in raw materials, many emerging brands don’t care about the inclusions, and find a factory to post a brand and do it.

In the future policy level, whether to increase taxes on e-cigarettes or restrict access by issuing licenses, it may pose a fatal risk to most players in this industry. Although the new national standard has not been issued, the “online ban on sales” can be said to sound the alarm in advance. The strengthening of supervision will prompt the industry to reshuffle, eliminate small players with weak competitiveness, and urge the industry to be more standardized from product to sales.

Tianfeng Securities previously reported that with the implementation and implementation of the national standard, domesticE-cigarettes may usher in a second take-off. By then, with clear industry standards and clear regulations, both upstream manufacturers and downstream channel vendors will have “laws to rely on”, and the industry will usher in a healthy and sustainable development.

Reissue of the version number may not save the game industry

Business influence: ★★★★

Social attention: ★★★★

After a nine-month suspension, the approval of the game version due to institutional reforms finally resumed at the end of December 2018. Because of this, the impact of this regulatory policy callback will mainly occur in 2019. The China Audio and Video Association Game Work Committee, which represents the entire gaming industry, identified this year’s industry development year as “gradual recovery” in the 2019 game industry report.

In May 2019, Tencent Mobile Chicken Game “Jedi Survival: Stimulating the Battlefield” was renamed “Peace Elite” for free for more than a year, and finally got the version number and quickly began commercialization. At the 2019 Game Industry Conference, Feng Shixin, deputy director of the Publishing Bureau of the Central Propaganda Department, revealed that since 2019, the National Press and Publication Administration has approved the publication and operation of 1,468 games.

But it must be acknowledged that the recovery of this industry is still extremely slow. According to data from the Game Industry Commission and IDC, the actual sales revenue of China’s game industry in 2018 increased by only 5.3% year-on-year, and it has dropped back to 7.7% in 2019, still hovering around China’s GDP growth. For a digital industry that was rapidly advancing at a rate of 20-30% a few years ago, it is still in the anticipation of the next outbreak cycle.

The reissue of the edition itself is more of a psychological comfort. The backlog of game production capacity has been nearly one year, and the speed of approving more than 100 games per month in 2019 is far from being able to start flooding. You know, in 2017, before the version number storm, a total of 9,368 game products passed the version number approval.

Image from Tencent’s official website

But for practitioners, this is not necessarily a bad thing. In 2017, nearly 10,000 game version numbers were issued. In fact, 38% of them were issued to chess and card games. Chess and card games are easy to develop, high flow, and fast return on capital. After the pass of the room card model, it quickly attracted a large number of practitioners to transform from other types of game projects. Cash out. However, bySince there are too many illegal gambling cases, chess and card games have been the focus of crackdowns by police in various places since 2018. In 2019, only a few board and card games have been approved.

The ebb of chess and card games is only a microcosm of the Chinese game industry. Since the release of the version number has stopped, the trend of refined games has become more and more obvious. At the same time, users and players have become more and more mature. Will not win the market. In addition, in 2019, regulatory policies such as the regulation of the total amount of games and the most stringent anti-obsessive work for minors in history are still tightening, which requires game companies to give more consideration to user interests and launch games for players of different ages. Demand product.

The issue of globalization is also more important among game companies. At the Tencent Staff Conference in 2019, Ren Yuxin, the president of Tencent’s IEG and PCG, only gave IEG about two minutes in his speech. Ren Yuxin said, let’s not talk about IEG any more. You are doing a good job in globalization.

Different from a few years ago when big factories exhausted the dividends of the Chinese market and small factories went to the trouble of going overseas, growing overseas and exporting culture has become an important issue for all game companies, and has the support of regulators and industry associations.

How will the game industry develop in 2020? The tipping point of the industry may be 5G, cloud gaming, or it may be going to sea.

Tesla coming to China: New cars tolling in 2019

Business influence: ★★★★

Social attention: ★★★

2019 is the year of Tesla’s harvest. Although the dawn of continued profitability has not yet arrived, the secondary market has begun to warm up, and Tesla’s market value this year has surpassed traditional car giants Daimler, BMW, GM and Ford.

The Model 3 has been riding on the battlefield in Europe. It has become the best-selling electric vehicle in the Netherlands and Norway. The location of the German factory is also being promoted. Tesla’s landing speed in Shanghai is also fast. It took only one year to complete the process of production line construction, start-up to delivery.

At the product level, Model 3, which currently has 30% of domestic suppliers, has entered the threshold of less than 300,000 yuan as an entry-level luxury car, which is very attractive for consumers. With domestic supply After entering the Tesla industry chain (the proportion of local suppliers will reach 70% in 2020), prices will continue to fall.

From the perspective of newly built cars, Tesla who has dropped down is not only a catfish but also the death knell of the industry.

Tesla’s coming to China has also divided some of its policies and market resources. For example, when Tesla built a factory in Shanghai, it took the possibility of Weilai’s landing in Shanghai; when a number of new car forces paid about 1 billion in purchase capital for production qualification, Tesla easily won the electric Automobile production qualifications, and its electric models also enjoy various types of purchase tax concessions and right of way policies;In terms of financial support, Tesla also received loans from the five major banks of 20 billion yuan below the central bank’s standard interest rate during the two years from 2018 to 2019.

Image from Tesla’s official website

The stark contrast is that the capital generated by the economic operation cycle has swept the car industry in the winter, the sales volume of the front car has not yet formed a scale that can make new car companies come back, and the supply of grain and grass in the rear capital has been in short supply.

New car owners who have been affluent for three years have reached the point where they need to get rid of the “PPT car” hat in 2019, so they have delivered mass production and handed in their first transcripts. But with the landing of electric vehicle subsidy downhill boots in June this year, new cars have not enjoyed the dividend of the electric vehicle market for a long time, and the industry has entered a time when it needs real knives and real guns. Even more sad is that the acres and three points occupied by the power of new cars have also been followed by traditional car giants. Ford has released the electric SUV Mach-E. Volkswagen’s Porsche plans to launch Tycan, Audi e-tron, etc Models, SAIC-Volkswagen’s Shanghai electric car factory will also be completed in 2020.

In 2019, the market value of Weilai at the head has been cut compared to when it was listed, let alone a new car company at the waist and tail. New car forces such as the Yangtze River, the future, Yundu, and Zhidou have layoffs, arrears of wages, and arrears with suppliers. The gears of the new car industry have already started. Sales volume is the most intuitive data-the sales of the top three Weilai, Weimar, and Xiaopeng have crossed the 10,000 mark this year, and the sales of new car brands at the waist end in the first ten months of this year are even difficult to reach a thousand .

To cope with financing problems, new cars are embracing small Internet giants. For example, this year, Xiaopeng Automobile’s C round of financing introduced Xiaomi, and Ideal Car’s C round of financing also introduced Meituan and byte-beating financing. On the other hand, new car manufacturers have also resorted to the government on financing channels to seek help from state-owned assets. Weilai has previously reported seeking financing from the Huzhou government, or seeking overseas listing or landing on the science and technology board. Pengdu has established overseas VIE architecture.

It is a compulsory course for new cars to make good use of every amount of money. For example, Weilai has laid off 20% of its employees in the world in 2019, and has also cut off unnecessary racing teams. cancel. Reducing cost and increasing efficiency have become the most important keywords for new cars in 2019.

companyDistrict fresh escape, this winter is a bit cold

Business influence: ★★★★

Social attention: ★★★

The winter of 2019 is indeed winter for the freshness of the community.

Since November, the outgoing capital chain of radish radish broke and was on the verge of bankruptcy. In just half a month, fresh food e-commerce companies such as Kyrgyzstan, Miao Life, and our kitchen were successively layoffs, closed positions and even closed.

“For all players on the fresh circuit, profit is like a metaphysics; only the loss and failure is an insurmountable hurdle.” This joke, which once mocked the fresh industry, will be in the winter of 2019. Once proven.

Time back to a year ago, the fresh circuit was still full of joy. Ding Ding, vegetables, simple supermarkets, fresh products, fresh legends, Aunt Qian and other companies have successively received large amounts of financing from Star Capital. After the collapse of 2015-2016, a new spring seems to be going again. coming.

But the harder the wind blows, the harder it may fall. The companies that have taken the big money have begun to expand. But they seem to have forgotten that in this old fresh circuit, the most feared thing is blind expansion and extravagance. From supply chain, logistics to procurement, even if one detail is not enough, it may be a good outcome.

Picture from Aunt Qian’s official website

The daikon radish was the first to fall. The star company only completed a round of investment in excess of RMB 600 million in June 2019, led by Gao Capital. In September, it was also selected as “Hurun China Unicorn Potential Unicorn in the second quarter of 2019.” Its “sale by acquisition” model is considered to be one of the most likely business models at this stage. A stubborn employee told the media that the company ’s headquarters has about 90 million yuan of procurement expenditure per month, but there is almost no supervision of the regulatory system. “Basically, it is approved as much as it is reported, and how the money is spent. No one knows where it went. ”

The unchecked squandering of costs has finally led to the end of today’s dead carrot. Although some stores have already resumed operations, it is almost impossible to restore the old style.

Similar to Daikon, Jijixian also received a round A financing from Jingwei Capital in May 2019. At the peak, the number of employees was close to 2,000. Until the end of October, it was still recruiting wildly in the public account. “Financing Failure” as a reason to enter the semi-closed state, employees left less than 300 people.

In the first half of the year, Jijixian was the fifth-largest single-cooked fresh produce e-commerce track, followed by Daily Fresh, Dingdong Shopping, Pupu Supermarket, and Dumplings. But within a few months, the situation took a drastic turn. The founder of Ji Jixian once told internal employees that he had met more than 100 investors in the past three months, but financing had not been completed.

Failure in financing is just the trigger for all this. In the harsh capital environment, the lack of risk management awareness and blind expansion are the key to the decline of the front-line fresh produce e-commerce business to the present end.

However, this winter is not all bad news for the fresh produce industry. In the past few days, Pupu Supermarket and Aunt Qian have harvested a new round of financing. It is reported that Dingdong’s new financing for grocery shopping has also been completed.

But the obvious fact is that after successive negative news, capital has begun to be cautious about fresh circuits. Compared with the speed, investors have become more and more concerned about the data.