The article is from the public number: Youquan-Tencent News (ID: entguiquan) , the original title was: “ 2019 Tencent Entertainment White Paper · Movies: Industry Overwintering, Exploding Money to Save the World “, title map From: Figure Worm Ideas.
2019 movie chapter report:
The “inflection point” of the Chinese film market has officially arrived
On the evening of December 6, the box office of Mainland China in 2019 exceeded the 60 billion mark, more than 20 days earlier than the same period last year. In 2019, the total box office of Chinese movies was fixed at 643 billion; compared with the figure of 60.976 billion in 2018, an increase of 5.4%. The Chinese film market has grown rapidly for 20 years, but has fallen back to a steady growth rate in the last three years.
The 5.4% increase is already fortunate. The animated film “Nazi’s Devil’s Birth” has achieved a total of 5.001 billion, the science fiction film “Wandering Earth” has an incredible swagger of 4.675 billion, and the “National Day File” bursts out in 7 days and produces more than 4 billion-their performance is slightly If there is a gap, the movie box office may close with a “negative growth”.
Behind the arrival of the “inflection point”, there are still more “invisible secrets”. For example, the average attendance rate of theaters across the country has reached a new low, and the vitality of audiences in the third, fourth, and fifth tier cities has gradually declined. For the next Chinese film market, greater hidden worries.
Of course, “inflection point” is not the same as doomsday. Behind the great challenge lies vitality. For example, domestic films hold firmlyMarket control, the rise of cartoons and sci-fi movies quietly, the improvement of the quality of online movies, the further refinement and expansion of the audience … The Chinese film industry is making great strides on the road to industrialization.
Movie box office growth slows, but theater expansion has difficult revenue
The Chinese market has maintained an increase of about 30% for more than 10 years, reaching a maximum of 63.9%. In 20 years, the scale of the Chinese film market has increased by a full 60 times.
But after 2015, the growth rate suddenly began a cliff-like decline. By 2019, the top 4 films contributed more than 15 billion box office, accounting for almost a quarter of the total box office in the year. No one can guarantee that in 2020, there will be more than 4 billion explosions in the movie market at the same time. It can be said that by the end of 2019, half of the Chinese film market has stepped on the “negative growth” turning point.
Simultaneously with box office growth, the number of theaters and screens in China has also exploded. Over the past 20 years, the number of theaters nationwide has increased from a few hundred to 11,000, and the number of screens has soared from more than 1,000 to 66,000.
A good number of screens is naturally a good thing, but the problem is also highlighted: the screen is enough, but there are not enough people watching. As of December 6, the total number of movie-goers in the Mainland in 2019 was 1.666 billion, while the number of urban residents in China was about 830 million, with an average of less than two movie-views per person per year.
The audience is not enough. The most direct manifestation is low attendance. The data shows that with the annual increase in the number of theaters and screens in China, the average attendance rate in 2019 is only 11.1%, which is the lowest in five years. Even in 2015, the highest attendance rate in the last five years, the average attendance rate is also Only 17.4%.
This is a very dangerous sign.
With a seat of 100 people, only a few people can see it. Not only is it a serious waste of resources, it is also a huge test for the theater operator. As long as the theater is open for business, venue rent, water, electricity, labor and equipment maintenance costs are inevitable. Occupancy is too low, and business will be unsustainable. The data shows that in 2019, the theater with the lowest single-screen output in the country, the annual output of a projection hall is only 1,150 yuan, and the average daily income is only more than 3 yuan; if it is evenly distributed to each seat, the daily income is only a few cents .
The number of popular single-film movie viewers exceeded 100 million, and the driving force of” town youth “weakened
The average ticket price for Chinese movies in 2019 is about 45 yuan in first-tier cities, and about 35 yuan in other cities. Overall, the average ticket price is about 40 yuan.
This is a cultural consumption that Chinese audiences can afford. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the per capita disposable income of Chinese urban residents in 2019 will exceed 40,000 yuan. In other words, each movie will cost about one thousandth of the annual income and one percent of the monthly income of an urban resident.
In other words, Chinese viewers are already capable of paying for the film. Taking the top 3 films this year as an example, “Nazi’s Witch Child” is 5.001 billion at the box office, the average ticket price is about 36 yuan, and the total audience is about 138 million. “Wandering Earth” has a box office of 4.675 billion, an average ticket price of 45 yuan, and about 104 million viewers. “Avengers 4” box office was 4.248 billion, the average ticket price was 49 yuan, the audience was about 86 million. According to this estimate, for movies that reach more than 4 billion at the box office, the number of single-viewers should be about 100 million. It can be confirmed that with the further improvement of the quality of Chinese movies, it will become normal for blockbusters to reach 100 million moviegoers.
But on the other hand, the rapid development of the Chinese film market in the past 20 years has taken the road of “surrounding cities in the countryside”, starting from first-tier cities, expanding to second-tier cities, and finally penetrating into the broad third-, fourth-, and fifth-tier cities.
But the vitality of “town youth” is waning. In the past three years, the proportion of the box office in the third-tier cities to the total box office in the country was 27.4%, 9.8%, and 6.5%, respectively, and the decline was significant; the fourth-tier cities were 30.9%, 14.1%, and 7.4%, which were also shocking. Large, 33.5%, 15.1% and 8.1% respectively. In just three years, the box office contribution rates of the third, fourth and fifth tier cities have all dropped from about 30% to less than 10%.
Social networks and short videos have greatly diverted young viewers, and they are almost an irreversible trend in a short period of time, because 5G is coming. For the Chinese film market, the total number of audiences in first- and second-tier cities has been relatively stable, and without the follow-up drive of “town youths”, the slowdown in growth will be unavoidable.
Domestic films dominate, and competition within the industry is fiercer.
In 2019