This article is from the WeChat public account: IT Times (ID: vittimes) , author: Pan Shaoying, from the title figure: Figure worm

The wolf is here. From the barren land to the official delivery, the Tesla Shanghai Super Factory only took one year.

On January 7, 10 owners got a Tesla Model 3 made in China. According to media reports, domestic Model 3s have more than 1,000 reservations per day and less than 300,000 Tesla after subsidy. Really fragrant.

Since China’s first batch of new energy vehicles went on the market in 2013, China has implemented new energy subsidies for more than six years. Driven by the policy of high subsidies and license plates, China has become the world’s highest-selling market for new energy vehicles. But at the same time, the earliest owners of new energy vehicles have tasted the bitterness of “Little Mouse”.

“I originally wanted to replace a battery for a new energy vehicle that has been in operation for nearly 4 years, but I did not expect that a battery can reach almost two-thirds of the vehicle, or I will not change it.” NorthBeijing new energy vehicle owner Lin Da (pseudonym) said so.

If Tesla’s localization has given another boost to the Chinese new energy vehicle market, then short battery life, fast power failure, expensive battery replacement, and rapid depreciation … Embarrassment, can it be gradually resolved as the technology iterates?

Replace a battery for 120,000

“Looking back now, I felt that the decision to buy a new energy vehicle at that time was an impulse, the cost of use was low, and the environmental protection was not restricted. A cost-effective alternative to travel. ”Linda did financial work in a private company. In 2016, he bought a BAIC new energy vehicle EV160, which cost about 80,000 yuan, including subsidies, compared with 100,000 yuan. The above petrol cars are quite cost-effective.

“The use experience was pretty good at the beginning. The company’s parking lot has charging piles. Charging is not a problem. The biggest problem is that when you go out on weekends to play, you may not find a charging pile.” This problem varies with As the use time of the vehicle becomes longer, it becomes more and more obvious. Linda is often anxious for the power and the charging frequency is higher than before. “Now this car has driven about 80,000 kilometers, and I heard that the battery life of new energy vehicles is almost 3 years. In ~ 5 years, I went to the 4S shop to find out the price of battery replacement. The quoted price was about 50,000 yuan, which was two-thirds of my car. “The cost of battery replacement is far beyond Linda ’s imagination. Stay high, the next car may focus on fuel cars. “

A reporter from the IT Times called a Shanghai BAIC New Energy 4S shop to ask about the cost of battery replacement for the EV160. The staff’s quotation was even more shocking: “Material fee of 100,000 yuan, plus labor costs, probably a battery change. It takes about 120,000 yuan. “The staff member admitted that it is indeed more expensive than a car.

It is understood that 8 years and 150,000 kilometers are the warranty period of BAIC New Energy Vehicles. During the warranty period, problems such as fast power failure can be repaired for free, but you can only pay for the battery replacement.

Mr. Luo of Anhui is also a new energy vehicle owner. In early 2016, he bought a JAC iEV5. “Cheap” was the most important factor that made him tempted. “Just focus on the price and ignore other possible problems.” . During the 4 years of driving this car, Mr. Luo successively encountered problems such as unsatisfactory charging, low battery voltage, broken relays, etc. These issues related to electricity caused Mr. Luo to think of replacing the battery., I only knew “70,000 batteries, almost half the car” .

Low value preservation and less second-hand transactions

If you think the battery replacement cost is too high and you want to “sell the car”, another problem is that the current situation of the new energy vehicle used car market is not optimistic.

“The most important thing for a new energy vehicle is the battery. Generally, the battery of a new energy vehicle that has been driven for three or four years has almost worn out, and the mileage has been greatly reduced. I don’t consider buying a new energy vehicle. A consumer who was visiting the used car trading market told reporters.

Traditional fuel vehicles that have been in operation for six or seven years can be accepted by buyers as long as there is no problem with the engine, but used new energy vehicles for more than three years are directly facing battery life issues. Reporters have hardly seen pure electric new energy vehicles.

In the industry ’s opinion, another reason why the new energy used car market is cold is the immature assessment of battery performance. There is a standard calculation formula for the preservation ratio of traditional fuel vehicles. Based on 5% annual depreciation, a new fuel vehicle with a price of 150,000 yuan can basically sell for 142,500 yuan a year later. However, how to calculate the valuation of new energy used cars currently depends mainly on data such as age and mileage. A domestic new energy vehicle with a purchase price of 100,000 yuan, less than two years of driving age, and a mileage of more than 300 kilometers is taken as an example. 4S The replacement price given by the store is only 30,000 to 40,000 yuan, and the value preservation ratio is only 30% to 40%.

According to the “China Auto Hedge Rate Report for November 2019” calculated by the China Automobile Dealers Association, the three-year-old new energy used car value prevalence rate is generally below 50%, while the three-year old-age fuel car value preserving rate Generally above 60%. Among them, the plug-in hybrid vehicle has a higher value preservation ratio than pure electric vehicles, and most new energy vehicles have a value preservation ratio of less than 30%, while pure electric vehicles have a lower value preservation ratio.

Tessla’s “wolfness”

None of these problems seem to be a problem for Tesla.

The data released at the “2019 China Automotive Finance and Hedging Rate Research Committee Annual Meeting” on December 28, 2019 shows that the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year value preservation rates of Model X are 67.46%, 57.22%, and 49.21%; Model S’s 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year hedge ratios are 65.3