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Therefore, there is nothing surprising about “relaxation”. After all, the word “relaxation” is vague and flexible.

In fact, Guangdong is far more than the two big cities of Guangshen. Foshan and Dongguan are likely to be megacities with a population of more than 5 million. This means that even if Guangshen is left out, other cities ca n’t be generalized. Some are relaxed, some are relaxed.

According to China Office and State Office 20191The “Opinions on Promoting the Reform of the Social Mobility System of Labor and Talent” issued in February has clearly defined what kind of cities will be fully liberalized and what kind of cities will be relaxed.

Removal of restrictions on settlement of cities with a permanent population of less than 3 million in urban areas; relaxation of settlement conditions for large cities with a permanent population of 3 to 5 million in urban areas.

Improve the settlement policy of points in mega-mega cities with a permanent population of more than 5 million in the urban area, streamline the points project, and ensure that the main points of social insurance payment period and residence period score.

Promote the equalization of basic public services. Permanent residents enjoy the same basic public services as education, employment and entrepreneurship, social insurance, medical care, and housing security. Steadily and orderly explore the promotion of direct settlement of outpatient expenses in different places, and improve the convenience of reimbursement for medical expenses.

In other words, according to national regulations, only cities with a population of less than 3 million in the urban area will have their residence restrictions completely removed, while cities with more than 3 million belong to the interval for relaxing or improving the settlement of points.

According to the data of the 21st Century Business Herald and the China City Statistical Yearbook, Guangdong has at least five million urban populations in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Dongguan. Foshan has not yet seen the data.

In other words, Fohan and Dongguan are still likely to be “relaxed,” while other cities, including Zhuhai, Zhongshan, and Huizhou, theoretically belong to the “removal of restrictions on settlements”.

Of course, the Chinese language is vast and profound, and the relaxation of the two characters is very flexible. Setting up a certain degree of education and social security conditions for the settled population can be considered to be relaxed. In this sense, if Dongguan and FoshanIn international circumstances, it seems that it is possible to completely remove the restrictions on settlement.

2.

Okay, the most important question is, how much influence will Guangdong’s liberalization of household registration outside the wide and deep have on the property market in the Bay Area?

First of all, whether to relax or relax is a laudable act of opening up. The future of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is even more promising. In this process, objectively, a lot of room tickets will be added to the Greater Bay Area, which will stimulate the demand side and help the property market’s sustainable prosperity.

Of course, there are also disadvantages to the property market, that is, the market is no longer as focused as before, and the limited population and funds have been diluted to various places, making it more difficult for houses to be fired.

For example, Zengcheng and Conghua in Guangzhou. In the past, the market was particularly good because they were restricted by other districts. They became granaries in the Guangzhou property market. However, after Nansha, Huadu, and Foshan relaxed their restrictions on purchases, the market ’s attention was distracted. Not so special.

So I think that Guangdong ’s relaxation of household registration except Guangshen is negative for the property market in Guangshen, especially in the peripheral areas. There is still room for growth in the non-core cities in the Greater Bay Area, especially Foshan, Dongguan, and Huizhou. These first-tier cities will take on more spillover purchasing power in the future.

However, I emphasize again here, do not mean that the property market will immediately heat up as soon as the household registration is relaxed, let alone imagine that millions of room tickets will be added to the market overnight. We must know that although the state requires the deregistration of household registration, the specific implementation depends on the detailed rules of each city, which requires a process. Each city will allow a certain amount of discretion within the framework of national policies and according to its actual situation, which is unlikely to be a full-blown release in a stormy manner.

And I would like to say that many times, free stuff is the most expensive. For example, in a high-quality city like Zhuhai that many people want to go to, if you fully liberalize your household registration, would you really think that it is better to settle down than before? Not necessarily. If there is no threshold at all, it means that there are particularly many people in the queue. The government may give a quota control indicator every year. Although you meet the conditions, you need to wait. Wait for seven or eight years. Not surprisingly, this time cost is ignored by many people.

More importantly, this pot of tea in the real estate market really needs to be boiled. The relaxation of the household axe alone can’t burn it. Compared with the deregistration of household registration, I am more concerned about credit, such as M2 growth rate, second home down payment ratio, mortgage interest rate, land auction premium rate, housing company financing difficulty, personal credit loansMark.

After all, What stimulates the demand side of real estate is the total amount of money, not the total amount of room tickets.

This article is from the public number: urban warfare (ID: sunbushu123) , Author: Sun unfamiliar