The article is from the public number: Guotai Junan Securities Research (ID: gtjaresearch) , the original title was: “ MCN and electricity supplier” Strange Bedfellows “ “, Author: Guotai Junan retail team title figure from: Oriental IC


In 2014, Disney Media Group acquired YouTube’s largest MCN manufacturer Maker Studio for $ 500 million.

At that time, Maker Studio had nearly 400 million users, more than 60,000 Youtube channels and creators, and was a hit. Youtube, the first online influencer, PewDiePie, had more than 43 million subscribers, and its cumulative click-through rate had exceeded 10 billion Second, 2016 revenue was 12 million US dollars.

PewDiePie will receive a PS4 controller customized by Sony, Source: Global Network

As the most successful MCN manufacturer, Maker Studio, which was acquired by Disney, once reached the global Internet user base after Google and Facebook.

But it turns out that MCN is not an exciting new business story.

In 2017, Disney announced the closure of Maker Studio and replaced it with the Disney Digital Network.

In the three years after the acquisition, Disney, the content giant who planted dreams for countless children around the world, discovered thatMulti-channel accurate distribution of MCN has not been achieved.

MCN will not be able to achieve a broader customer base match without a clear brand differentiation advantage.

Now in China, as e-commerce live broadcasts move from niche to the general public, the concept of online celebrities and MCN has also become popular, setting off waves of storms in the capital market.

The Guotai Junan retail team puts forward five key choices for China’s MCN industry through a thorough analysis of the MCN industry chain and a comparison of overseas failure experiences.

Summary in one sentence-“It is a dream to bring goods, and advertising is really fragrant”.

01 Universe Center MCN

Successfully creating an internet celebrity is inseparable from stable content production, efficient and accurate channel distribution, and clear and distinctive personality settings.

Before entering the era of industrialization, this means that countless shooting trials and errors, luck-based resource matching, and the risk of collapse without notice.

So, in this “listening to the sky” industry chain center, MCN came into being.

On the upstream side are content parties and brand parties including PGC, UGC, and KOL. Downstream applications are extended to various social platforms such as social platforms and e-commerce, and then distributed by the platform to users.

Whether the user chooses to pay for the content, appreciates the favorite anchor, or is successfully ordered by Amway, this payment will go down this industry chain and pass through the platform and MCN from bottom to top Flow into the pockets of the host and brand side .

For brands, followers who have been naturally screened based on KOL’s self-personality and content tone characteristics are natural target customers, and the output ratio of commercial launch has more stable expectations.

The emergence of MCN has solved the situation that KOL content production is distressed by costs and resources, and a large number of reusable resources are shared by KOLs. With standardized operations and capital support, KOL guarantees the continuous output of content, and ultimately realizes the stable realization of business.

In the process of landing MCN in China, it transformed into a business model with “Chinese characteristics”. In China, MCN is not simply signing online celebrities and conducting content management, promotion, monetization, but has its own growth path and Unique survival mechanism.

Professional MCN, including screening, incubation, content development, self-content platform technical support, continuous creativity, user management, platform resource docking, event operation, commercial monetization and cooperation, sub-IP Develop a series of chains and tedious work.

If you remove the word “net celebrity” that tends to create stereotypes, this is more like the daily work of a multinational advertising company.

It’s just that it’s different from 4A’s “who to sell the goods to”. Under the blessing of the traffic of the short video platform, MCN and its KOL think about “who wants to buy my stuff” / strong>.

The rise of the short video platform has given MCN a smoother channel and more creative possibilities.

As of the end of December 2018, there were more than 5,000 domestic MCN institutions. MCN content has accounted for more than 60% of the traffic on mainstream social platforms, and more than 90% of the top celebrities have been included in MCN companies.

At present, the overall size, format and presentation of MCNs in China have already far surpassed overseas, and the overall domestic market size exceeds 10 billion yuan.

The number of domestic MCN institutions has exploded. Source: Crowray, iResearch, Guotai Junan Securities Research

02 E-commerce sinks, MCN takes off

In fact, the rise of overseas MCNs is also mainly based on the rise of online celebrity videos on YouTube and the accumulation of resources. It is practical to see what is happening before the hands, and the people of the world have taken the lead in achieving great unity.

The real MCN is a rich choice of platforms .

The early foreign MCNs mainly relied on Youtube. At home, there is no completely short video platform in China. Instead, Weibo, Tencent, NetEase and other major platforms have launched short videos. Therefore, MCN extended to multiple platforms. Get more traffic.

MCN institutions will combine high-quality PGC or UGC on the platform to provide them with packaging operations, marketing promotion, traffic distribution and other services, so as to complete the professional incubation and commercial realization of IP. In the process, creators need only focus on the content. MCN is equivalent to the middleman between PGC and the platform, and its realization method can naturally come from both the B-side and C-side.

C-terminal monetization method of domestic MCN institutions, Source: Crowray, iResearch, Guotai Junan Securities Research

C-terminal monetization methods of domestic MCN institutions, Source: Crowray, iResearch, Guotai Junan Securities Research

This has nothing to do with the booming development of China’s e-commerce: in the past 20 years, China’s e-commerce has continued to change speed in the decline of demographic dividend and the gradual prevalence of consumerism. After three stages of development, it has entered a supply-driven mode.

China’s e-commerce development from demand-driven to supply-driven for two decades, data source: Guotai Junan Securities Research

In the era of supply-driven, consumer behavior is beginning to return to rationality, and the value discovery of consumer goods has become even more important. KOLs, which have more and more accurate product information and are accepted and trusted by traffic in the private domain, have naturally become the key nodes for information matching and transaction matching.

This problem has been discovered in e-commerce, where young people spend the most money, and short video apps, where young people spend the most time.

Taobao Live Broadcast was launched in March 2016. It is an application positioned as a “consumer live broadcast”, focusing on content + platform products that combine live broadcast, entertainment, interaction, and online shopping. By providing users with a shopping environment while watching and buying, the ultimate goal of facilitating product transactions is achieved.

In the past three years, the turnover of Taobao Live Broadcast has continued to grow rapidly. In 2018, the turnover has exceeded 100 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 400% year-on-year.

Taobao gave itself a target GMV of one billion years later, 500 billion.

It’s just that the principle of leaning against a tree for a good break is not necessarily true during the development of Internet commerce. We compare the cross-platform KOL of Taobao Live with Douyin, Kuaishou, B Station and Xiaohongshu, and we will find that KOL fans of Taobao Live can only live in the midstream.

Comparison of KOL information across platforms, data sources: Taobao, Kuaishou, Douyin, B station,Xiaohongshu, Guotai Junan Securities Research

This means that The e-commerce gene in Taobao Live’s bones is the key to brand and audience selection.

As a result, Taobao’s successful experience in live streaming is not a convincing and reproducible version. MCN companies talk more about their efforts on content-focused platforms.

For example, Douyin, Kuaishou, Xiaohongshu and Station B.

From the perspective of user scale, Douyin and Fast-hand users are huge. In 2018, there were 320 million daily users and 250 million daily users. Xiaohongshu ’s positioning is relatively high-end. (First- and second-tier users account for over 70%) , with 10 million + daily active users, and Station B is a cultural community targeted at” Gen Z “, with 37.6 million daily active users. The youthfulness of users on all platforms is obvious, and the proportion of users under 30 years old is more than 65%.

In terms of content, Douyin and Kuaishou are mainly short video + live broadcast, Xiaohongshu is mainly graphic and short video, and station B is mainly video + live broadcast.

From the perspective of traffic distribution, Douyin is dominated by the platform, and Kuaishou, Xiaohongshu, and B Station are mainly social + interests. The profit model includes advertising, live streaming, games, and e-commerce. The underlying logic and business models of the four new media platforms are different, but beauty and makeup are all in the top five industries for advertising.

According to Quest Mobile statistics, from January 2018 to February 2019, the daily video and monthly active users of short video apps represented by Douyin and Kuaishou have grown strongly. Douyin has surpassed traditional traffic platforms such as Weibo and Jingdong. Daily and monthly users are second only to Taobao.

According to Li Hao from Mars Culture, in the context of budget reductions in most industries, short video marketing budgets represented by Douyin and Kuaishou have increased by 200% year-on-year. “text-remarks” label = “Remarks”> (Advertising Revenue) target has been raised by 50% to 15 billion yuan.

The main monetization methods of the short video industry include e-commerce delivery, advertising, live broadcast rewards, games and knowledge payment. Douyin, which adopts a centralized distribution model, has absolute control over the distribution of information streams, and users have a higher degree of acceptance of advertising. Therefore, Douyin’s information stream advertising revenue occupies a major position, and it is expected to earn 50 billion yuan in 2019. Kuaishou is more mature in the realization of live broadcasts, and the number of daily users of Kuaishou live broadcast exceeds 1 in 2019.Billion, has become the largest live broadcast platform, the target revenue of live broadcast rewards and small games in 2019 is 35 billion yuan.

Another key to MCN’s emphasis on content platforms is that bringing goods is a dream, but rewarding is the reality.

MCN’s revenue sources generally include three categories: advertising, live broadcast and e-commerce. At present, there are relatively few MCNs that really rely on e-commerce to make profits, and most of them are head KOLs with resource accumulation. Most MCNs rely on advertising as their main source of income. At present, the monthly advertising flow of the head MCN agency of Douyin and Kuaishou is about 20-30 million yuan. For some MCNs, live broadcast revenue is also an important source of income. The share of MCN and KOL depends on the outcome of the game between Party A and Party B in their dominant position and resource input.

03 Who will survive?

For MCN institutions, large, early-to-market institutions bring together a large number of early influencers through time and volume advantages, and continue to consolidate their unique advantages, such as vertical field MCN institutions, the number of Internet celebrities in their corresponding fields can reach hundreds of people, and the interactive ability brought by them can reach hundreds of millions.

For emerging MCN institutions, due to the short entry time and insufficient company resources, the bargaining power is low, so most of them are below the breakeven point. However, by strengthening independent research and development, avoiding vicious competition, and incubating its own phenomenon-level IP, it can still bring a lot of attention and the development prospects are still promising.

The number of MCN signing accounts has increased significantly since 2018. Source: Crowray, iResearch, Guotai Junan Securities Research

Domestic MCN institutions started with Weibo and gradually spread to Douyin, Kuaishou, WeChat, Taobao Live, etc. Although the user groups of different platforms have different styles,Maximizing the coverage of the crowd and increasing the influence of institutions and celebrities are the core requirements for commercial realization.

MCN Qianxun, an e-commerce head, has 38.489 million followers, and 15.64 million in the United States; MCN, the bee colony head of marketing format, covers more than 500 million fans across the entire network, and more than 100 million fans are covered by Douyin alone. Daily average page views exceed 1 billion.

The top celebrities sit on top of multiple platforms and have strong sales-driven capabilities.

Weiya ’s double 11 sales in 2018 led 330 million sales and 2.7 billion in sales for the whole year;

The Lizi Tmall store opened for 6 days in 2018, and only 5 products sold more than 150,000 and sales exceeded 10 million.

However, 90% of the top celebrities have signed up. MCN institutions have begun to focus on the development and incubation of waist performers with higher cost performance. Qianxun signed a waist KOL for a group of millions of fans such as Zhang Mofan, Xiaoqiao, and Xue Oni. Using team output play, the UV accounted for 9.71% in the Double Eleven market in 2019, which is the second most nearly 3 Times.

With the gradual professionalization of the Internet celebrity economy and the improvement of the MCN agency industry, the signing of Internet celebrities and MCN agencies to become full-time Internet celebrities has become a new trend.

The favor of MCN agencies by head online celebrities highlights the importance of all-round help brought by MCN agencies in the competition of celebrities. Compared with 2018, the proportion of head net red and MCN agencies signed in 2019 still increased, reaching 93%.

The number of online celebrities signing up with MCN institutions has gradually increased, which means that more and more users will regard online celebrities as their formal occupations and jobs, and the number of professional online celebrities will continue to increase. While MCN institutions have brought many benefits to online celebrities, through more accurate traffic guidance and more yuan distribution channels, more effective and richer commercial monetization methods have been given to online celebrities.


04 Five MCN guesses for the future: How to rebuild Li Jiaqi?

1. The competition for high-quality resources is upgraded to a multidimensional situation

In the future, not only MCN, but also the multiple roles of the content industry chain including platforms and star brokerage companies, and even traditional brand companies will be added.Entered into the battle for high-quality resources, the celebrities or stars with continuous production capacity of high-quality content will become the key marketing resources chased by many parties.

2. MCN institutions and platforms are gradually becoming professional and programmatic

With the gradual tightening of policies, the standardization of the MCN industry will also be greatly strengthened, and legal compliance and standard compliance will become one of the operating bottom lines of content production institutions. At the same time, with the gradual end of the IP battle, it will become possible for multiple agencies to serve one IP together, and the power of data will be further valued. The “industrialized” production capacity and professionalism based on data analysis by various agencies Will be the key to its success.

3. Popular competition is fierce, and accounts are facing de-homogenization competition.

As more and more MCN agencies and media go deeper into the vertical category, in the future, the content account competition will be further upgraded. Some accounts with similar content attributes and similar fan / interaction volume may face life-and-death fighting. . Creating its own distinct and irreplaceable IP characteristics will become an effective barrier for future institutions and experts to face similar competitive pressures.

4. MCN’s international development, content traffic goes overseas, and overseas deployment is accelerated

As more and more content platforms have been deployed overseas, and domestic brands have continued to escalate their overseas demand, “going out” and “introducing” of popular content and high-quality content have become the hearts of many MCN institutions . At present, not only MCN, but also third-party organizations in the industry, including Clara, and some content marketing agencies are also expediting the deployment of their global business and development strategies.

5. With the advent of 5G, MCN may move to a new platform battlefield

The 5G era is coming, and the value of each operator node has begun to highlight. With the increase of the Internet access rate brought by 5G by hundreds of times, future content forms, distribution channels, and access methods may change drastically, and the subsequent platform strategies, resource allocation, and key directions are also facing recombination. Possibly, MCN may also suffer from “car-throat” restrictions caused by the impact of new technologies.

The above content is selected from the research report “Retail: MCN explodes in the wind, new traffic helps the rise of domestic products” and public information released by Guotai Junan Securities. Including riskInstructions, etc.) Please see the full report for details. If there is any ambiguity due to the abstract of the report, the full report content shall prevail.

Slam (Analyst) S0880513120002

Chen Yanxin (Analyst) S0880517070001

Peng Ying (Analyst) S0880517120002

Zhang Rui (research assistant) S0880118080091

The article is from the public number: Guotai Junan Securities Research (ID: gtjaresearch) , author: Guotai Junan retail team