Among the four first-tier cities, the performance of the Shenzhen property market in 2019 can be described as unique.
Source of this article Daily Economic News , author Zhen Sujing.
The Shenzhen property market, which has a policy of “loving”, has emerged from the independent market in 2019.
Early in 2019, Shenzhen received red envelopes such as half-value-added tax for second-hand housing, and planning for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. In August, it led to a red envelope for the policy of a socialist pioneering demonstration zone with Chinese characteristics. , Shenzhen 1, second-hand housing transactions totaled 115,033 units, an increase of 22.3% over 2018.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, analyzed to reporters from the Daily Economic News that compared with other first-tier cities, the confidence in the Shenzhen property market has increased significantly, and the transaction volume and price have increased steadily. Dominance; policies are often far better than expected, which is a sudden rise; planning for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the pioneering demonstration zone of socialism with Chinese characteristics have given Shenzhen a new positioning, making the Shenzhen real estate market more interconnected.
Shenzhen residential community Picture source: Every reporter Zhen Sujing takes a photo
New home transaction volume hits new high after “Shen Ba Jiu”
As the supply of new homes accelerates, the number of first-hand residential network signings in the city will continue to increase in 2019. According to Midland Real Estate Data, in 2019, Shenzhen’s new house projects received a total of 136 pre-sale permits, and a total of 85,365 new commercial houses were pre-sold, an increase of 23.9% over 2018. The total number of approved homes was 46509, an increase of 21.1% over 2018. However, the proportion of approved housing units in the city’s total approved housing units dropped slightly to 54%.
Residential housing supply is accelerating, and new home sales have surged year-on-year. There were 37,884 first-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, with a total transaction area of approximately 3,724,500 square meters. Level.
Data source: Midland Realty National Research Center, Shenzhen Housing and Urban Construction Bureau
From the perspective of monthly trends, except for the Spring Festival month, which is a traditional off-season, the volume of transactions in the rest of 2019 is basically in the range of 2500 ~ 5000 units. In particular, the performance in the last month of 2019 was excellent. The number of first-hand residential network signings in the city reached a new high since March 2016, with a total of 4,861 units sold.
By region, the volume of Baoan and Longgang exceeded 10,000 units, far ahead of other regions. However, Baoan’s transaction volume increased sharply year-on-year, and Longgang’s transaction volume decreased slightly. In 2019, nearly half of the first-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen came from Baoan, with a total of 17,699 units. The transaction volume increased by 53.1% year-on-year, and the city’s turnover accounted for 47%.
Although Baoan has provided a large number of first-hand homes this year, it is still the “Japanese disc” of the luxury houses in Futian and Nanshan. At the end of October 2019, Xiangmihu’s luxury home Panshenye Midtown opened. In the early stage, buyers were required to raise 5 million yuan, and a total of 13.97 billion yuan was frozen. Even so, the 192 units with an average price of 130,000 yuan per square meter were still sold out. The China Merchants Seal located in Qianhai and Yiwan House were also sold out immediately after opening.
However, not all new homes in this area are doing so well. According to data from Leyoujia Research Center, in 2019, the transaction volume in three regions of Shenzhen fell, and Luohu fell the most, at 37.7%; followed by Longgang, which fell by 20.4%; Nanshan, the smallest decline, at 2.6%.
Mr. He Qianru, director of the National Research Center of Midland Realty, said that the policy of the whole year of 2019 will continue to be favorable, and the market confidence will be significantly improved, which will greatly stimulate the property market transactions. It is expected that developers will still speed up the pace of new homes entering the market in 2020, driving the increase in first-hand residential transactions, with a year-on-year increase of about 5% -10%. However, the pricing of new homes will become more rational, rising slightly.
When the “Double 11” luxury house tax was just adjusted, people in the industry believed that it was negative for new houses. Chen Yang, the manager of Leyoujia store in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, said that second-hand housing in hot areas was digested very quickly and the transaction cycle was significantly shorter. The new real estate, which was originally not ideal with customers and dehua, had improved sales at the end of the year.
Second-hand housing transaction volume increased by nearly 20% year-on-year
Favorable policies have been frequently stimulated, and market confidence has increased significantly. The Shenzhen property market has broken the frozen state in 2018, and the transaction volume of second-hand housingUp. A total of 77,149 second-hand houses were sold in the city in 2019, with an area of approximately 6.347 million square meters, and the number of sold units increased by 19.4% over 2018.
Data source: Shenzhen Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center
From the perspective of the monthly transaction volume, due to the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, the transaction volume in February 2019 was the lowest in the year, and only 1997 second-hand houses were sold. Since Shenzhen lowered the interest rate for the first set of residential loans in March 2019, customers’ willingness to enter the market has increased. At the same time, the city ’s second, third, and fourth quarters have been stimulated by the positive socialist pilot model with Chinese characteristics and lowered “luxury tax” standards The number of second-hand residential filings in the quarter was significantly higher than in the first quarter, and the number of filings in individual months even exceeded 7,000 units, and the last month at the end of the year was even closer to 10,000 units.
Bao’an not only won first-hand housing transactions, but the proportion of second-hand residential transactions climbed to the top. It surpassed Longgang for the first time with a volume of 18,417 units, up 35.5% year-on-year. The hotspot area is still distributed in the central area of Bao’an; Longgang second-hand housing 17,818 units were traded, second only to Baoan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.2%. The hot spots for transactions were still distributed in Phuket, Henggang and Longgang Central City.
After the adjustment of the “Double 11” luxury house tax, the areas with a high proportion of luxury houses, such as Futian, Nanshan, and Baoan, will be more favorable, resulting in higher transaction activity. In many areas, the owners have held a group of control disks to attract the attention of the regulators and have been noticed. Interview, forcibly stop online signing. The favorable impact of Longgang’s policy is small, but it is still welcome due to the low total price.
Shenzhen Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center believes that Shenzhen ’s market regulation is expected to relax in early 2019 and interest rates will decline. The market volume and price will rebound in March. In August, the policy of a pilot model of socialism with Chinese characteristics will be introduced. Shenzhen ’s city positioning, development potential will increase, and market atmosphere Lit again. The adjustment to the “Double 11” luxury house standard directly benefited the second-hand market, especially in Nanshan, Futian, Baoan and other regions, and the transaction volume increased significantly.
He Qianru said that due to market fluctuations, second-hand housing owners and buyers are currently in the game stage, and second-hand housing prices are difficult to rise significantly. It is expected that the annual increase in house prices in 2020 will be within 2%.
Land volume and price go up in the land market
More than 30 real estate companies are bidding, and more than a hundred times are holding up their cards. In June 2019, Shenzhen will stage an epic soil auction. From the end of the year to the end of the year,China entered the stage of shock supply, and the land transaction volume and price rose throughout the year. According to data from Midland Realty, Shenzhen successfully sold 49 lands (excluding the Shenzhen-Shandong Special Cooperation Zone) in 2019, with a total transfer area of 1,882,400 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%. The total transfer amount was 68.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.6. %.
Data source: Midland Real Estate, Shenzhen Land Real Estate Trading Center
From the distribution of land use in Shenzhen, industrial land is still the main force, with 26 transactions throughout the year. In 2019, the supply of residential land in Shenzhen far exceeded that of previous years, and a total of 11 transfers were successfully completed. In terms of regional distribution, there were 3 cases each in Pingshan and Guangming, 2 in Longhua, and 1 in Nanshan Qianhai, Baoan Xixiang, and Longgang Dapeng. In addition, there were 7 commercial land transfers, 2 commercial land transfers, and one each for regional transportation land, cultural and sports facilities land, and medical and health land.
Although residential land is supplied centrally, the conditions for transfer are more stringent. Compared with the previous two years’ sale of residential land, in addition to the project’s sale restriction for 3 years after completion, the residential land sold in 2019 uses “single-limit double-competition” or “double-limit double-competition”, that is, on the basis of limiting land prices, Rent the area of unsold talent housing.
In addition, the Shenzhen “Enclave” Shenzhen-Shanshan Cooperation Zone, which has received much attention, has accelerated the speed of land introduction in 2019. A total of 13 lands were successfully transferred, with a total transfer area of 457,800 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 27.0%. The total transfer amount was 1.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%. Except for 11 industrial land, one residential land and one commercial land. With the thawing of the real estate market in the Shenzhen-Shanshan Cooperation Zone and the continued favorable planning, the promotion of the Shenzhen-Shanshan Cooperation Zone is expected to accelerate in the future.
He Qianru predicts that according to past experience, following the policy market situation in 2019, coupled with structural factors, will cause a rise in transaction volume in March 2020, and the “small spring” in the property market is expected.
Li Yujia believes that from the perspective of monetary and regulatory policies, there is a high probability that the property market will emerge from the “Little Spring” in 2020. On the one hand, the LPR of the new pricing benchmark has opened a downward channel; on the other hand, the “one city, one policy” has been fully implemented, and the most urgent time for policy has passed.