Although technology is still “dragging” the courier, in the future, as Ma Yun said, it may be “substitute”.
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “ 亿 欧 网 ” (ID: i-yiou), author: Qiao Yang, editor: small North
The trolleys are filled with express packages of different sizes. The brother of SF Express presses 10 floors in the elevator. Arriving at the front desk of Yiou, he used the SF app to scan the QR code on the electronic voucher and collected a batch of express parcels to be sent.
Most of the customers who sent express mail did not notice that the paper slip and hand-held code scanning gun have disappeared for a long time. Unconsciously, this industry has quietly entered the era of scientific and technological logistics from the original “knife-and-till”.
From the robotic arms, conveyor belts, auto three-dimensional shelves in the warehousing link, to intelligent capacity deployment and intelligent route planning in the transportation link, to intelligent ordering at the distribution end, drone distribution, and intelligent express cabinets, etc. “Stupid” logistics industry, now every link is permeated with strong scientific and technological factors.
But the logistics industry surrounded by science and technology has shown another picture in the logistics landscape:
Express technology companies pay more attention to customer experience under the rendering of technology, and then continue to explore the edge of the business and develop new projects, resulting in an increase in the number and pressure of end-delivery personnel;
Consumer-oriented express companies have a large amount of technology investment and a high degree of application, and their corresponding profitability has also been significantly improved. However, for enterprise-oriented express companies, the technology investment is at the same level as the express company, but the technology penetration is slow; / p>
With the help of capital, the integration of the express market and the acceleration of mergers and acquisitions have formed three forces mainly composed of Cainiao, JD.com and SF. In addition, they have a large number of quarters in the national express market, and intend to establish their own logistics. The platform promotes the transformation of the express delivery market to the e-commerce logistics market.
Technology “drags” courier
Under the background of the rise of e-commerce, the number of China’s express parcels has climbed exponentially. In the end, these “burdens” have been placed on the courier companies represented by “Four Links and One Access”.
In double eleven in 2013, Taobao + Tmall’s orders exceeded 100 million for the first time, and “Express Delivery” became the hot word on the Internet for the first time. In 2014, China surpassed the United States and Japan with 14 billion express orders.The sum of developed economies such as Europe has become the world’s largest express delivery country.
Driven by the vigorous development of e-commerce at that time, the upgrading of the logistics industry was almost ready to move. The phenomenon of industrial upgrading clusters was first manifested in the rookie that was positioned on the intelligent backbone network. Cainiao and Tongda Department and other 14 courier companies jointly launched an electronic ordering platform to unify various data standards, plan courier paths, and collect orders from courier orders. The link began to shorten the information transmission distance.
Cainiao then launched the first cloud-based logistics basic information service platform in 2015, using cloud processing capabilities to show users the timeliness and accuracy of logistics transportation details;
For the first time, JD.com announced that it will use Shanghai’s “Asia One” modern logistics center with an automatic access system, automatic picking racks and automatic conveying equipment to prepare for the Double Eleventh promotion. By building a logistics infrastructure driven by technology and efficiency, they have realized the digitalization of the infrastructure of the logistics industry.
In 2016, logistics technology showed an “amazing” side in the transportation sector. Amazon uses drones to deliver courier packages to consumers for the first time; DHL Group delivered more than 130 courier packages through drones in Bavaria, Germany; JD.com ’s first self-developed unmanned delivery vehicle in China began road testing; rookie and Xinyi The automated warehouse operation center built by technology operates in Guangzhou.
Automatic sorting equipment, AGV, intelligent storage, intelligent decision-making, unmanned delivery trolleys and other hardware equipment and technology have gradually become the major needs of major express delivery companies. One-vote express delivery from ordering-pick-up-transit-transportation-delivery Timeliness and transparency fill the entire logistics and transportation process.
But with the acceleration of the scientific and technological progress of the express delivery industry, a new question has emerged: Will the intelligent logistics industry cause large-scale job losses for the courier?
Ma Yun left a prediction about “Logistics Technology and Courier” at the 2017 Global Smart Logistics Summit: “Every technological revolution will bring huge unemployment, but the real new technology is to make People do more valuable things. Many of the courier people who have managed to organize today may be unemployed, because of the robots, because of the self-driving cars, and the drone delivery that has a relatively good concept today. “
As of now, the number of couriers has not developed in the direction predicted by Jack Ma, but the opposite.
In the double eleven peak season of 2019, the national express delivery industry’s business volume reached 2.8 billion pieces, and the maximum daily processing volume reached 520 million pieces. In other words, an average of 2.1 million front-line courier members nationwide need to deliver more than 240 courier items per day.
This is a severely “overloaded” number. In order to make up for the lack of terminal delivery capacity during peak periods, various express delivery companies have generally strengthened terminal personnel, venues, and vehicle reserves, and temporarily supplemented nearly 400,000 people.
The courier races against time almost all the time. Yunda courier told Yiou that whether peak or flatOften, work from 6 am to 10 pm; Yuantong courier who has worked for seven or eight years also said that delivery was about 120-130 tickets a few years ago, and now there are a minimum of 300 tickets; during the peak of Double Eleven, Many people even received text messages from the courier in the early morning: “The parcel has been placed in the water meter box opposite to you, pay attention to check it.”
The person in charge of the SF site next to Jumei Home in Chaoyang District introduced Yiou that more automated sorting equipment is used in headquarters such as distribution centers and transit warehouses. Finally, it is dispatched to the site. The courier needs to sort the parcels to the delivery area by himself.
According to the data of 58 Recruitment Research Institute of the same city, the demand for recruitment including the word “courier” in the first half of 2019 increased by a year-on-year multiple. Among them, the highest year-on-year increase in April 2019 reached 271.96%, followed by a year-on-year increase of 162.27% in June.
Liu Dacheng, deputy dean of the Internet Industry Research Institute of Tsinghua University, director of the logistics industry research center and doctoral supervisor, said to Yiou that the scientific and technological application of logistics is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
The first is digital technology, which realizes the precise docking of the entire logistics process, and realizes nodes, network formation, and vehicle-cargo matching; etc.
The second is the equipment foundation, such as equipment for automatic sorting, automatic operation, and automatic loading and unloading;
The third is the Internet of Things technology, which enables real-time monitoring of goods, vehicles, and personnel in logistics transportation;
Fourth, the collection capability of the overall system has been strengthened;
Fifth is decision support. Computer decision support capabilities help companies make predictions and decisions.
In other words, in the long run, Jack Ma’s point is correct. The logistics technology of express delivery companies is reflected in the layered stages of warehousing, sorting centers, and cargo transfer centers. But at present, the technology has not reached the level of the entire logistics chain. Coupled with the express delivery is in the growth stage, the last mile of the delivery, the relevant personnel have not been relieved from the work pressure.
Manual operations still account for most of the workload from the site to the end of the distribution. The application of logistics technology, while improving efficiency, actually shifts the labor focus of industry practitioners to tasks that cannot be replaced by machines.
However, the intelligence of the terminal distribution link has also begun to emerge. For example, the increasing use of intelligent express cabinets has replaced part of the work of courier.
“Uneconomical” scientific research investment trading
The phenomenon of polarization in the application of science and technology in the field of logistics has gradually surfaced. Like listed express companies, the degree of science and technology is high in the process of high standardization, and the profitability of scientific research investment is directly proportional to their expenditure.
In contrast, the express transportation enterprises are in a state of fragmentation and poor concentration. They do not have sufficient capital to support the development and application of science and technology, resulting in insufficient technological penetration and unsatisfactory results.
The term “closed position” is associated with theThe high-frequency negative words appearing during the peak period, the high-level technology of AGV, automatic sorting equipment, etc. in the warehouse have not been completely intelligent, and the courier company still faces the backlog of warehouse goods caused by the warehouse explosion and consumer complaints. Rate increase, the gap between peak season profit and low season loss, the test of ability to resist risks, etc.
Before logistics technology became a system, these were very difficult problems to solve. However, the rapid development of the e-commerce market and the increase in user demand for services are forcing logistics companies to continue to innovate.
In 2016, private express delivery companies such as SF, Yuantong, Shentong, and Yunda were listed on the capital market. Seven listed courier companies have formed one enterprise cluster with revenues exceeding 100 billion yuan and 4-5 enterprises with revenues exceeding 50 billion yuan.
In addition, Ali’s continuous investment in Zhongtong, Yuantong, Shentong, and Best Enterprise has given express companies a continuous stream of motivation and increased the proportion of R & D investment. From 2015 to 2018, various express delivery companies such as Tongda and Best have increased the proportion of their investment in automation equipment year by year, and increased their use of automation equipment in logistics and transportation such as storage, distribution centers, and transit links.
In terms of technology and information IT, in 2018 alone, SF, Zhongtong, Yuantong, Shentong, and Best have invested 2,723 million, 155 million, 50,629,400, 4,362,100, and 58.1 million yuan, respectively.
Shentong Yiwu Distribution Center was officially launched, with 350 robots working simultaneously to speed up the sorting of goods; Yuantong took the lead in developing and launching invisible orders to strengthen the security of personal information of users; Yunda had issued stocks to raise 4.517 billion yuan It is used in intelligent warehouse distribution integration and transfer center automation upgrade projects; Zhongtong plans to realize unmanned operation of some distribution centers by 2020.
Express delivery and express operation are two different business developments. Express delivery is different from express delivery. It mainly focuses on factory parts and provides B2B services. In addition to low delivery frequency, the average ticket weight is too large.
For this reason, the express market structure is uncertain and the market is fragmented. Neither leading companies have emerged, nor are there “leaders” like Ali. Even the price war that has now started has entered the express market ten years ago. situation. However, in terms of research and development, the investment of Debang and One Meter Tick has reached hundreds of millions of yuan.
From 2016 to 2018, Debang’s annual R & D expenses were more than 300 million yuan. In terms of digital management, Debang has launched intelligent management systems such as smart stations and Lu systems;In terms of intelligent dispatch, large and small pieces integration and sorting, Debang small D PLUS and other equipment came into play.
One-meter ticker, who received the D round of financing, also intends to use 1.8 billion yuan of financing for customer acquisition, core operation nodes, intelligent technology research and development and investment in three major areas to promote its own digital transformation and upgrade. For example, the intelligent dispatching and intelligent center it operates can form functions such as monitoring, early warning, and command on the cargo.
Anneng Logistics has invested over 100 million yuan each year in the research and development of information systems and the introduction of automation equipment. It has a professional information technology research and development team of nearly 200 people. And “Token” APP, to assist personnel to quickly place orders for sending and receiving.
In the process of rising business volume, the increase in the number of machines has amortized the fixed costs of the enterprise, reduced the marginal cost, and thus played a role in reducing costs and increasing efficiency. For example, the automated sorting equipment is more than 10 times more efficient than traditional manual sorting. In the past three years, the average efficiency of the end-courier brother has increased from 80 to about 100. Express delivery packages that used to be delivered in the past three or five days can now be delivered on the same day and the next day.
Continuous investment and promotion of infrastructure upgrades also provide enterprises with stronger competitiveness and profitability. In 2018, the profits of Zhongtong, Yunda, Shentong and Yuantong reached 4.383 billion, 2.698 billion, 2.049 billion and 1.904 billion, of which only Best is in a loss.
In contrast, the companies in the express shipping industry have not been optimistic when they landed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2018. After the transformation of the large-scale express delivery sector, their performance continued to decline. In the first quarter of 2019, they lost nearly 50 million yuan. Since then, profitability has been declining. By the third quarter of 2019, compared with 459 million yuan in the same period of 2018, it had fallen by 75.7% year-on-year. Debon also had problems such as high debt ratios and deteriorating cash flows.
The scientific research investment of express and express is equally divided, but the results are not as optimistic as express. Yang Daqing, a special researcher of the China Logistics Association, said to Yiou that, first, the closer to the living materials logistics of the C-end customer group, the higher the degree of market-based free competition, the lower the entry threshold, the more dispersed the market resources, and the easier it will be shuffled by digital technology , Such as express delivery, real-time logistics and many other living materials related to people’s livelihood, logistics, high degree of technology application.
The closer it is to the logistics of production materials of the B-end customer group, the higher the industry threshold, the lower the market activity, and the more difficult it is to change the inertia of the service chain. The logistics market serving the B side is a larger gold mine. However, markets such as energy logistics and steel logistics are slow to penetrate due to high intensities.
Second, problems such as uncoordinated transportation methods and the fragmentation of technology applications have also indirectly led to high logistics costs and low technology penetration. Rail transportation accounts for only 5% -6% of China’s total freight, highways account for 86% of freight, and water and air transportation modes account for about 10%.
In addition, SF and Tongda companies account for more than 70% of the entire express market, while the concentration of express companies is only 2.9%, and the concentration of road freight industry is only 1.2%.
Liu Dacheng also believes that the higher the industry concentration, the easier it is to form a large-scale industry, and the more, broader and deeper the application of logistics technology will be. In the field of express transportation with poor industry concentration, it is easy to form scattered, small, and chaotic situations. Enterprises have poor ability to negotiate premiums, have weak financing periods and weak cash flows, and do not have sufficient capital to support the development and application of logistics technology. Now the entire fast-moving industry is in a slump, and it is more difficult to upgrade technology with heavy assets.
The heavy asset investment of logistics technology in the express delivery industry, drones, unmanned warehouses, etc. are more in the exploration and trial stage. It is also difficult to produce direct and ideal results. However, the emergence and application of new technologies is conducive for capital to pay attention to the development of this industry and can increase the vitality of the industry, which is not necessarily the actual operating capacity.
Since the development of the logistics industry, the requirements of the capital market for the company’s own profitability and return on investment have continued to increase, which is itself a price for the industry to attract capital.
Express market is being restructured
Alibaba woven its own logistics network by investing, incorporating half of the express market into its portfolio, and strengthening the relationship between e-commerce and express delivery. JD.com, which builds its own logistics, on the one hand, strengthens its own technological control, and on the other hand, through splitting or independent methods, it wants to make JD.com a logistics technology service provider with an annual revenue of more than 100 billion yuan.
In addition, SF, the leader of the private express industry, has been facing siege of the rookie department and JD.com and has been eager to break through and embrace the e-commerce market. Coupled with the rise of many e-commerce companies, it has also stirred up the “muddy waters” in the logistics market. The new evolution of the logistics market is beginning.
Since 2016, the express delivery market has begun to be deeply integrated, and major companies are moving towards a comprehensive logistics company. Zhongtong enters the field of express transportation, officially launching investment and joining in the whole country; Yuantong expands large-size heavy cargo transportation, warehousing and other fields; Yunda proposes a “one-piece and two-wing” development strategy; Debang strategic upgrade, and layout of e-commerce large-scale express business.
The listed courier companies have accelerated the transformation of the entire courier market and quickly put aside the second echelon. Quanfeng, Guotong and Rufeng were gradually eliminated.
At this time, Cainiao has completed the first round of financing, and spent 1 billion yuan to start the “Cainiao Alliance”, launching products of the same day and next day, including Stone Connect, Tiantian, and EMS. In 2019, Ali used 23.3 billion yuan to increase its holdings and increased its support for rookie.
Jack Ma has publicly stated that he will not touch express delivery and logistics, “will not grab the business of express delivery companies”, but in fact, in May 2019, Cainiao established its own brand landing and distribution company “Daniao”, and Almost all of the accessible systems are included in its portfolio.
Current, Cainiao has already invested or held shares in express delivery companies such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, Shentong, Best, and instant logistics companies such as Dianda and Hummingbird Distribution. In the future, Ali will also look for opportunities to enter Yunda.
Ali has linked the e-commerce ecosystem and the new retail format with capital bonds, opened up warehouse and distribution resources, and strengthened its voice and influence on express delivery companies. The intelligent logistics backbone network built by Cainiao has realized the digital upgrade of the entire logistics industry from the perspective of technology and supply chain, driving the industry’s progress.
Jingdong and Suning’s own strength is enough to support a logistics world. From the beginning of his business, Liu Qiangdong determined that only self-built logistics can fundamentally solve the problem of logistics services.
After JD.com got its first round of financing in 2007, Liu Qiangdong insisted on building logistics by himself, so he was willing to burn money on a large scale. After 12 consecutive years of losses, JD Logistics has just begun to break even. In the future, JD Logistics will also be listed independently. In the beginning of 2017, Suning spent 4.25 billion yuan to acquire Tiantian Express, which has been repeatedly changed hands, hoping to integrate it with warehousing, trunk lines, terminals, and other aspects to strengthen the last mile of Suning Logistics’ delivery capacity.
SF Express has gradually been impacted by e-commerce in the express delivery field, and has begun to find breakthroughs. At Pinjun Express, a subsidiary of Vipshop, the speed of spending has always failed to keep up with the rate of profit. Vipshop’s painstaking operation has not achieved good results. Pinjun was completely shut down and included in the SF Group.
Compared to e-commerce logistics’s Ali and JD.com, private enterprises, SF, and the sudden emergence of a lot of fights seem to be breaking the original three-legged situation and become a new level. Pinduoduo’s order business has grown rapidly, and it surpassed JD.com in a short period of time, becoming the fourth Internet listed company in China by market capitalization.
Pinduoduo started to sink in the market, more than half of the packages went to third- and fourth-tier cities and counties and rural areas, accounting for 25% of the total Chinese express market in a year, becoming the second largest order source for express companies Orders with Tao are in a state of thirty-seven points, and the incremental market brought by them is “jealous” by Ali and Jingdong.
Pinduoduo once said that “there will never be involved in logistics”, and now I am also trying my own electronic coupon and developing a “new logistics” technology platform.
The competitive landscape of the express delivery market appears to have evolved into a competitive landscape of e-commerce logistics. And the essence of e-commerce competition is not the flow, but the supply chain that promotes the realization of value. The large flow that Pinduoduo leverages through capital leverage requires a digital logistics cornerstone to build a digital logistics hub.
The power of capital intervention is always strong. It can allow logistics companies to quickly complete the integration of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and complete the layout of the ecosystem. At the same time, the company can effectively expand the size of the enterprise by effectively operating the capital. Great weight to compete with competitors.
The restructuring of the express delivery market by the giants and the all-round involvement of capital have clearly changed the ecology of the express delivery industry.
Episode
Express delivery companies are a collection of networks, ecology, culture, products, services, and systems. In the development of technology-driven logistics industry, the ultimate distribution end is an important link connecting merchants and users, online to offline, and also the most stressed and the most topical link. The cost reduction and efficiency improvement of enterprises are also reflected in the courier. And their speedup not only represents the scientific and technological achievements of the enterprise, but also reflects the overall quality of express service.
Resident communities, office buildings, universities, and business districts have become the most densely populated places for courier. If measured by community units, large communities with 10,000 people generally need to be staffed with 20 couriers. Ten years ago, a community needed only 2-3 delivery staff.
Coupled with the deep penetration of e-commerce retail and the rise of instant delivery, the contact between courier and the community has become closer. From simple transportation and distribution personnel to now become a “technical flow”, the proportion of courier to provide services to residents has been very high.
As the brother of SF Express said: “Only the company grows and develops well, the physical strength of employees can be reduced and the efficiency will be improved.”
The role that technology plays in this is crucial. Although the current emphasis on process and light terminal development stage, it means greater work pressure for courier. However, from the perspective of express companies, the role of linking Internet companies and communities has become more and more important under the auspices of technology.
Ms. Liu, a retired faculty member in the embroidery garden of Chaoyang District, said that the courier has shortened the distance between the merchant and the user, and is mutually beneficial to both parties.
Mr. Gao from Jasmine Garden, Beiyuan Homeland, thinks that the high-tech applications of express cabinets, post stations and other sites bring convenience to our lives and at the same time bring us a great sense of security.
Express companies use technology to carry huge business volumes, and use speed to deliver icy parcels, from warehousing and storage to packaging, sorting, loading, intermediate transportation, and delivery to the last mile Robots, drones, and drones are taking away non-creative posts that belong to us step by step. Although technology is still “dragging” the courier, in the future, as Ma Yun said, it may be “substitute”.
A number of veteran industry professionals and related staff have given their full support during the writing of this article, providing detailed information and data support for Yiou, special thanks (in no particular order):
Liu Dacheng, deputy dean of the Internet Industry Research Institute of Tsinghua University, expert Yang Daqing, special researcher of China Logistics Association, courier from JD Logistics, SF, Yunda, Zhongtong, Yuantong, etc. Ms. Liu, a retired faculty member of Xiujuyuan Community, Chaoyang District, and Mr. Gao from Beiyuan Homestead Jasmine Garden.
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