How is the property market performing in 2019? Data from the National Bureau of Statistics gives the answer.
On January 17, the National Real Estate Development Investment and Sales in January-December 2019 released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the national real estate development investment in 2019 was 13.24194 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% and a growth rate of 0.3%. .
It is worth noting that the real estate sales nationwide in 2019 reached 15.925 trillion yuan, a record high. The national housing completion data for the whole year of 2019 increased by 2.6% year-on-year. With the year-on-year decline in the area of completed housing for 23 consecutive months, the first positive growth occurred in January-December.
Commercial housing sales reached nearly 16 trillion yuan, breaking records
In 2019, the total sales of commercial housing nationwide reached 15,927.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5%, and the growth rate fell by 0.8 percentage points. Among them, sales of residential buildings increased by 10.3%, sales of office buildings fell by 15.1%, and sales of commercial buildings fell by 16.5%.
In terms of sales area, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide in 2019 was 1.71558 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. Among them, the sales area of residential buildings increased by 1.5%, the sales area of office buildings decreased by 14.7%, and the sales area of commercial buildings fell by 15.0%.
From historical data, in the case of continuous positive growth for 4 consecutive years, the housing sales data in 2019 has fallen again. Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, believes that this is closely related to the overall macroeconomic fundamentals and the property market fundamentals. However, from the specific sales situation in 2019, the year-on-year decline in sales area was 0.1%, indicating the resilience of the national housing sales market, which means that the market will not cool down significantly, but objectively proves that the market is not bad.
In the context of the industry’s record high, commercial real estate has continued to decline. Zhang Bo, director of the branch office of 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, pointed out that in some cities and regions, the preliminary planning of commercial real estate is ahead of schedule, and the overall market supply exceeds demand, and the serious homogeneity of commercial real estate is the main cause.
The area of housing completion has shown positive growth for the first time in two years
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2019, real estate development enterprises had funds in place of 17.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year and an acceleration of 0.6 percentage points.
Of which, domestic loans were 2,522.9 billion yuan, an increase of 5.1%; foreign capital utilization was 17.6 billion yuan, an increase of 62.7%; Self-raised funds of 5,8158 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2%; deposits and advances of 6,139.5 billion yuan, an increase of 10.7%; personal mortgage loans of 2,712.81 billion yuan, an increase of 15.1%.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, believes that the data on capital is actually not too bad. The growth rate in 2019 is relatively stable, and the improvement of funding status at the end of the year is good.
On the other hand, Yan Yuejin pointed out that the feelings of housing companies and market data are inconsistent, resulting in housing companies being more conservative, so that in early 2020, many housing companies accelerated financing, especially in the issuance of US dollar bonds and bills. , Targeted issuance, etc.
In 2019, the national housing completion data increased by 2.6% year-on-year. With the year-on-year decline in the area of completed housing for 23 consecutive months, the first positive growth occurred in January-December.
“Under the situation that the completion data in 2017 and 2018 has been negative growth, the first statistically positive growth in 2019 means that the turning point of housing completion data has arrived.” Yan Yuejin, Research Director, Think Tank Center, E-House Research Institute It was pointed out, “According to the sales data and completion data of the past years, it can be seen that the completion data is obviously low. From an absolute number, the completion data of the last three years, namely 2017-2019, only accounted for 57% of the sales data. In other words, there is still a large part of houses that have not entered the completion period in the past. Based on data from the housing development cycle and other data, it is estimated that 2020 should usher in a year of completion and delivery, which will benefit the back-end market for housing sales. “ span>
About 2020, Zhang Bo predicts that “differentiation” will become an important manifestation of the real estate market, including the differentiation of the sales market; the differentiation of the land market; and the differentiation of the growth of housing enterprises. Among them, in terms of the land market, in 2020, cities below the third and fourth tiers will see a certain proportion of decline on the demand side, and the return of housing enterprises to the first and second tiers is gradually accelerating.