Ran Caijing (ID: rancaijing) original
Author | Kong Mingming
Edit | Xia Wen
The annual “largest population migration in the world” has begun.
According to data from the Ministry of Transport, the Spring Festival Transport of 2020 will start on January 10 and end on February 18, for a total of 40 days. It is estimated that the passenger transportation of the Spring Festival will be about 3 billion in 2020, which is basically the same as last year.
When the Spring Festival arrives, the fierce ticket-grabbing war starts quickly. Various transportation modes such as airplanes, trains, and buses have become the object of passengers’ ticket-grabbing; at the same time, the proportion of self-driving and downwind rides has continued to rise. For travelling companies, the Spring Festival Games is also an annual “hard battle”. They must not only do their best to meet user travel needs and ensure user safety, but also face the overall test of the company, such as the company’s overall scheduling, operations, and emergency response.
As an important supplementary form of the Spring Festival, taking a ride back home is being accepted by more and more users. However, this year’s downwind market is not the same as in previous years. After the Didi downwind event in 2018, after more than a year of rectification and exploration, Didi began to resume trial operation of the downwind in more than ten cities on November 20 last year, and it has not yet opened cross-city travel. This undoubtedly leaves opportunities for other players in the market, such as Tick Travel and Hello Travel.
For the windmill business, although the market size continues to rise, it still has to face how to compete for customers from traditional QQ groups and second-hand platforms, how to better ensure user safety, and how to better match Passenger and driver needs, etc. need to be addressed one by one.
The Spring Festival Tournament “A Ticket Is Hard to Find”
As early as half a month ago, Chen Ling had already greeted the company in advance about the holiday time, paid close attention to the ticket buying software, set an alarm clock, and was ready to grab the ticket.Working in Beijing for more than 5 years, and returning to the Chinese New Year each year is a year-round expectation of Chen Ling, but the process of returning home is always a tiring journey home.
Chen Ling ’s family is in a prefecture-level city in Shaanxi. In the past few years, there was no high-speed rail connection. Every time you go home, you need to go to Xi’an and then transfer to Xi’an by car. I bought a bus from Beijing to my hometown, and bumped in the car for more than ten hours; she also tried to find a windmill in the same city, and there was a boy fellow in the car all the time, worried.
And this year, although she bought the acceleration pack on several apps, the app always shows that “sending tickets”.
Where to go official website: Tickets are being grabbed Source / Respondents
Data from the Ministry of Transport shows that the number of passenger transports during the Spring Festival in the country will reach 3 billion in 2020. Due to the advance of the New Year this year, student flows, work flows, family visits, vacation flows, and other passenger flows are highly superimposed, plus this year’s north It is very cold and snowy, and rainy and snowy in the south.
This year’s peak passenger traffic will be concentrated on January 15-January 23 (21st to 29th of January); after the holiday, the return passenger traffic will show a double peak situation, which will be January 26-February 2 (The first two days of the first month to the ninth day of the first month) and February 9-February 13 (the first sixteenth to the twentyth day of the first month). It is estimated that the passenger flow during the Spring Festival holiday will account for about 20% of the total passenger flow during the Spring Festival. January 25 (the first day of the first month) is a trough, and January 30 (the sixth day of the first month) is a peak.
Trend of passenger flow in Spring Festival 2020 Source / Ministry of Transport
And according to CtripThe “2020 Spring Festival Passenger Travel Trend Report” shows that benefiting from the improvement of the “eight vertical and eight horizontal” high-speed rail network, the number of people travelling by high-speed rail or by motor vehicles this spring is about 70%. Among them, the post-80s and post-90s are mainstream people. Compared to trains, flight fares are rarely discounted during the Spring Festival.
Every spring season, train tickets and air tickets to popular areas are hard to find. Because direct train tickets are not available or the price of the air ticket is too high, the “curve home” via intermodal transportation such as road, rail, and civil aviation is very popular, and the price is generally more favorable.
From the migration data of Baidu Map over the years, it can be seen that from the perspective of the travel range during the Spring Festival, the amount of trips in the province is expected to account for 55% of the total, which is higher than the number of trips across provinces. From the perspective of travel distance, it is estimated that the average travel distance of passengers during the Spring Festival Transport in 2020 is about 343 kilometers, of which about 66% are within 300 kilometers, and about 13% are between 300 kilometers and 500 kilometers, and 500 to 1000 kilometers. Travel volume accounts for about 13%, and passenger travel is mainly short- and medium-distance.
Forecasting the distribution of travel distance for tourists during the Spring Festival in 2020 Source / Ministry of Transport
According to the big data predictions of Tick Travel, the combined demand for the ticker ride platform is expected to exceed 68 million during the Spring Festival. The ticker rider called the surge in supply and demand during the Spring Festival period before and after the Spring Festival. Passengers carried by vehicles accounted for about 2.3% of the total of 3 billion people during the Spring Festival. The average distance of cross-city rides is about 260 kilometers, and the average amount is about 190 yuan. Short- and medium-distance travel is the main use case for return rides.
As an important supplement to the Spring Festival, the windmill is becoming the choice of more and more people.
Market in competition
Travel companies have already begun deployment in advance and are preparing for the “Spring Festival War” against time.
According to Analysy’s “2019 China Online Ride Car Market Analysis Report”, the value of downwind car transactions in 2018 was 23.2 billion, compared with 19.2 billion in 2017, an increase of20.8%, and it is estimated that the trading volume of downwind vehicles will be 28.8 billion and 37 billion in 2019 and 2020, respectively, which will grow rapidly.
The market share of downwind cars in China’s mobility market continues to grow Source / Easy Viewing
In order to alleviate the difficulties of users during the Spring Festival, Didi has adopted the four major measures of “simultaneous calling”, “Chinese New Year travel guide”, “Chinese New Year driver service fee” and “customized Chinese New Year subsidies” as in last year. The “simultaneous call” function will be extended to 170 cities across the country, and the “Chinese New Year driver service fee” from 1 yuan up to 9 yuan will be fully paid to drivers, and various subsidy strategies will be provided.
In terms of safety, Didi has established a “safety work headquarters”, with CEO Cheng Wei as the chief commander, and president Liu Qing as the deputy chief commander. All business leaders and emergency response personnel are on duty 24/7 to handle emergencies .
Similar to Didi, Shouqi has also announced that it will add a “driver’s holiday fee” during the 2020 Spring Festival. From January 19th to February 3rd, when passengers use service products such as instant car use, reservation car use, and pick-up and drop-off, they need to pay the driver master a “driver’s holiday fee”, which generally fluctuates between 1.8 yuan and 8.8 yuan. The holiday fee will be fully paid to the driver himself.
Similarly, other players in the market, Tick Travel and Hello Travel, have also vigorously started the Spring Festival deployment.
Tick trip data shows that in 2019 Tick Treadmills have covered 359 cities across the country, and the total ride-hailing demand for more than 580 million rides. The theme of the Spring Festival 2020 Spring Festival is “Little Spring Festival · Reunion”, which is a powerful supplement to the traditional spring festival method, and carries out related activities under the guidance of the ten provinces.
Of the click-to-city cross-window order destinations, it is estimated that during the Spring Festival, the number of orders from first-, second-, and third-tier cities that reach third- and below-county counties and towns will account for about 35.9%; in addition, it is expected that this year’s spring transport 2.8 million people took the ride to reach their hometown in the mountainous area of northwest and southwest. Tick travel is estimated that in the cross-city ride, passengers will make up about 48% of orders on the day of departure and about 29% of orders will be placed one day in advance; car owners will take up about 57% of orders on the same day of departure and receive one day in advanceThe single proportion is about 26%.
Similar to Didi, in order to ensure the safety of users’ travels, Titan Windmill launched the “Winter Sun Warm” program, and introduced 9 special security measures and a 7×24-hour response and minute-level upgrade alarm security problem handling mechanism. CEO Song Zhongjie is personally responsible for decision-making, deployment, and command; on the product, Titan Windmill has launched two new functions, “Reporting Safety” and “Route Shift”. Li Jinlong, co-founder of Tick Mobility, told Ran Finance that safety is the top priority of this year’s “Little Spring Festival”. “First, we are a mass travel service platform, and secondly, it is enabled by Internet technology.” p>
Nine special safety measures for 2020 “Warm Winter Sun” by Tapa Windmill Source / Tapa App
Aiming at the joint talks between the four departments including the Ministry of Transport on January 13 on the trips of Didi and Tida, the two platforms were not allowed to engage in illegal operations under the name of the ride-hailing vehicle, which was also launched during the “Little Spring Festival” Specially crack down on illegal operations. “For illegal operations such as offline transactions and multi-pattern violations using the Shunfeng platform, once verified during the Spring Festival, we may directly ban related accounts.” Li Jinlong said.
Haluo said that in order to encourage more owners and users to share empty seats and green travel, Haro Shunfeng has set up a “Spring Festival Fund” with a total of 80 million yuan. Its use includes 10,000 passengers. Single quota, 10,000 car owner fuel rewards, smart user subsidies, invitations to upgrade for a limited time, etc. On this basis, during the Spring Festival, Harbin Shunfeng will focus on upgrading five major safety measures and comprehensively upgrade the safety guarantee system.
Although Didi was absent from the cross-city spring transport market this year, Li Jinlong believes that for ticking trips, the important thing at present is to expand the downwind market together with other platforms.
Tailwinder business that is not easy to do
Even though the travel companies are doing their best, the downwind market is still not an easy cake.
Before the travel platform appearedDownwind has been a business that has existed for many years. However, the places you are looking for will be concentrated on the QQ group, Weibo, Post Bar, etc. Now they have been transferred to second-hand platforms such as idle fish, Zhuanzhuan, etc. Although the security cannot be reliably guaranteed, it is easier to match because of the demand. The owners and passengers arriving on the road are still welcomed by the owners and passengers.
Xianyu’s Chinese New Year’s rides are booming. Source / Xianyu App
Zhang Wei, who lives in the northeast, tells Rancai that he has placed a ride-hailing list back to his hometown on multiple platforms, but has not received a suitable match so far, and is afraid to consider second-hand platforms because of concerns about safety. “Only I can wait a bit longer and try my luck. ”
For platforms, security is also a big issue. Since the Didi Downhill event in 2018, Didi has been offline for the ride-hailing business and will begin trial operations on November 20, 2019. In the more than one year that Didi has been offline, enterprises such as Didi and Tick Travel have repeatedly held security meetings with the government to continuously improve security measures.
In the view of Li Jinlong, although there are still many demands for second-hand cars for second-hand platforms, but because they can not effectively protect the safety of passengers and drivers, “it is only a channel for users and is no longer the main force.”
Li Jinlong believes that if you want to do a good job in the windmill business, you need to do two core things: one is to ensure “true” smoothness, and the second is to ensure that the price is low and not for profit. . Compared with the express train, the downwind car should be a product that is not so easy to use because its matching is more complicated and the matching process is more tedious. In the development process, in order to be able to achieve “true” downwind, Tada Downwind did not choose to do the downwind business in accordance with the faster speed model.
For the safety system of a downwind car, if you want to achieve a “true” downwind, it means that the car owners are all real private car owners, instead of many car rental companies like the express car business. The requirements are higher and more methods need to be tested to ensure safety more comprehensively. This also means that it will not develop as quickly as the express train.
Li Jinlong told Ran Cai Finance that after seizing the essence of the ride-hailing industry, theySince 2015, continuous exploration and testing have proved that it is feasible to make a downwind platform that has both altruism and self-interest. By collecting information service fees, Tailwind’s ride-hailing business has been profitable since April 2019, and its scale is gradually increasing.
“This is a viable business model, but we admit that the matching degree of cross-city rides is really not that high,” said Li Jinlong. “If you want to quickly match all counties and towns in China, Hundreds of millions of people are on our platform. But traditional road passenger transport is the main force of the Spring Festival Transport. Even if the size of the downwind car grows, it will only play a small complementary role. “He estimates that in the future, the size of the downwind car business will be at least Reaching half of the current express order volume, there is still much room for growth.
In response to the interviewee’s request, Chen Ling and Zhang Wei are pseudonyms.