Will the property market in 2020 be better than 2019?
Editor’s note: This article comes from Bearded Room (ID: dahuzishuofang) : Li Junhuai, reproduced with permission.
On January 17th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the final data. In 2019, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 1.71558 million square meters, while the sales area of commercial housing nationwide in 2018 was 17.654 million square meters, a decrease of 0.1%. As predicted in my 2018 New Year’s Eve speech, 1.71 billion square meters will become the ceiling of the Chinese property market.
In 2019, the sales volume of commercial housing nationwide was 15,927.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5% compared to 1,499.7 billion billion in 2018.
Compared with last year, the sales volume has increased. Obviously, the undeniable fact is that in 2019, overall house prices still rose, rising by 6.7%, exceeding the 19-year GDP growth rate.
What about the property market in 2020? For the property market in 2020, I made eight predictions for your reference!
The overall property market in 2020 will not be better than 2019, but structural opportunities still exist
Since the start of this wave of property market growth in 15 years, 5 years have consumed a lot of demand for buying a house. In other words, the leek in the property market was cut roughly, but the new leek was too late to grow. At this moment, when house prices are rising slowly or even some places are not rising, everyone ’s mood of buying and watching is getting stronger and stronger. From the crowded heads in the past to rushing to buy a house, now wait and see.
So, at the end of 18 years, I proposed that the 1.7 billion square meters of residential sales area will become the ceiling of the Chinese property market, and it will be difficult to break through in the future. This was verified in 19 years, and I think 2020 will continue.
The property market will not be better than 19 years, but it will not be too bad. After all, even if the property market is not the locomotive of China’s current economic development, it is still at least a ballast stone, which must be stable, so the possibility of housing price skyrocketing and plummeting in 2020 is zero.
But one thing is that the rise and fall will be more pronounced than in 19 years. In 2019, key cities with significant increases include Nantong, Ningbo, Shenzhen, and Kunming, which all increased by 10% -20%. The number of key cities that fell was not large. Typical are Guiyang and Fuzhou, and the decline was not large. In my opinion, this year’s increase in the property market will not exceed those of the obvious cities in 19 years, but the decline will be more obvious than in key cities that fell in 19 years.
The tone of staying and not frying will remain unchanged, and relaxation of restrictions on purchases will bloom everywhere
Individuals in these four categories of cities in 2020Only a very small number of cities can carry this product. North Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Qingdao, Chengdu, Suzhou, Nanjing, Sanya, etc., other cities, if there is such a product above the price, it is best not to touch, it is difficult to change hands later.