This article comes from “ 爱 范 儿 (ID: ifanr) “, the original title is “ifanRank 10th Anniversary Special: 2030 Future Party”.

2020 ~ 2030 is different from other ten years.

The big black stones scattered in the universe in “2001: A Space Odyssey” is a story 20 years ago. The neon penetrating dystopian world in “Blade Runner” was desolate in November 2019. The classic science fiction movie that represents the future has become a past tense, and we have officially entered the “future” from the new decade.

Standing on the cliff in 2020, we are facing a transformative world-5G is pouring onto the coast, ready to sweep the entire city; AI has invisiblely penetrated into everyone’s life, and is behind this change. Pushing hands; new digital devices have not flooded, but streaming media and social software have allowed entertainment options to explode; AR and VR, which are repeating every year, are now waiting to set off a phenomenal wave …

The magnitude of the changes now makes the future increasingly unknown.

We want to use 10 technology trends to show you what will change in life. Although no one is sure whether they will actually happen, at leastThe possibility of coming is constantly being enlarged until it is close to us.

The Door to the Future: 5G

Picture from: Unsplash

Now, we are standing at the entrance of 5G, the biggest innovation boom since the advent of the Internet.

2019 is the first commercial year of 5G, and the preliminary construction of 5G ecology has been completed. 2020 will be a year of large-scale popularization of 5G terminals, and applications in the 5G industry will also leapfrog.

The characteristics of 5G’s low latency and wide connection, coupled with its theoretically high speed of tens of times faster than 4G and a speed of up to 10GB per second, can first make the loading daisy animation disappear in all mobile phones, but Its true value is not limited to mobile phones. The popularity of 5G will reshape the entire city.

Smart devices, smart cars, smart manufacturing, and a large number of IoT-intensive technologies eager for 5G will build the next-generation infrastructure and form our new smart city in the future. New products, services, new business models and industries based on 5G technology will change the way everyone interacts with technology, adding trillions of dollars to the global economy.

Several of the best Android phone manufacturers have released 5G mobile phones, and the 5G iPhone will also be coming in the second half of 2020. At that time, 5G will truly become a mainstream technology, and the AR and VR programs that will follow. , Will use the killer applications to split the small world on the screen.

However, 5G in 2020 may be a little different from what you expect. What we experience will be 5G in the low-frequency band, high-speed communication in the imagination, and waiting for a wide range of millimeter-wave signals to cover the city. ,due toThe number of units required is huge, and it may not come to everyone after five years.

But you have to sit still and hold fast. The speed in the transition period is not slow.

Humanity in AI

Picture from: Bruev iStock

In the past ten years, the tech giants such as Facebook, Google, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft have all been doing the same thing: acquiring artificial intelligence (AI) company.

This illustrates the importance of AI in the future.

In October last year, Google ’s chat bot Duplex, a technology giant, already called restaurants in New Zealand via AI. It can naturally mimic human voices and ask for business hours for local holidays. In 2020, Duplex will appear on our mobile phones. More conversations in real life.

AI is still a “kid”, but it will eventually be smarter than adults.

According to the latest data from Ali Dharma Institute, in the field of perceptual intelligence such as “listening, speaking, and seeing”, AI has reached or exceeded human standards, but in the field of cognitive intelligence that requires external knowledge, logical reasoning or domain migration , AI is still in its infancy.

As we enter 2020, the gold rush of AI will accelerate. In the next ten years, AI will achieve a key breakthrough from perception to cognition and present itself in a new way.

It will study cognitive psychology, brain science, and human social history, combined with cross-domain knowledge atlas, causal reasoning, and continuous learning.Technology, in order to be able to steadily acquire and express knowledge, understand and apply knowledge.

In layman’s terms, it’s more “emotional”.

Then AI will be built into the chipset of our mobile phones, TVs and smart devices. Just like robots change the manufacturing industry, they will start to disrupt the information industry in 2020 and let automation and “humanization” improve everyone. life.

IDC predicts that by 2025, at least 90% of new applications will embed AI, and by 2024, more than 50% of user interface interactions will use AI-enabled computer vision, speech, and natural language processing. AI will become more Like the existence of “people”.

Certainly, Deepfake’s face change has made us see the terrible nature of AI abuse. When privacy and data security were abducted by machines, the ugliness and desire of humanity began to flood. The prejudice against gender and race in AI experiments continues to tighten the moral string. At this time, people’s eyes finally began to withdraw from the dazzling technology and returned to the face of human nature.

True, false, and false. In this era, we need to distinguish the truth from the muddy lies.

Real virtual world

Picture from: Intel

But then you can have a fantasy dream.

Although the annual trend every year, it seems that virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) These two old words, but they are not a stagnant pool, but ratherNew breakthroughs have been made every year, and the temperature has continued to increase. Only when the time is ripe, it starts to boil.

VR and AR have been associated with immersive games and movies for a long time. Driven by 5G and AI, research agency Gartner pointed out that from now to 2028, they will allow user experience in two aspects. Great changes have taken place—user perceptions of the digital world and how users interact with the digital world.

Perceptually, your imagination will begin with your subordinates, and at the same time, it will extend to the end where you cannot see.

Another fantasy world visually, I believe you have already experienced it in VR glasses and experience halls, such as riding a wild horse in the vast west, assassinating beasts through the thorny jungle, or turning off the ambiguous lights. Curtains, watching naked bodies entangled like loach.

In the future, AR / VR will get rid of device pressure and reality restrictions, and bring a more realistic, multi-sensory and multi-mode fresh experience. For example, in industry applications, doctors can use AR surgery to assist in more training and practice. On individuals, VR will provide nearly real accompany for the elderly or people with limited mobility and physical limitations, and relieve their depression and loneliness. .

In terms of interaction, AR / VR is the killer of future retailers and marketers. People will have nowhere to go in this shopping playground because it will be everywhere.

You will be able to browse products in virtual clothing racks and showrooms and experience a lifelike upper body experience before buying. Now Gap has used the virtual DressingRoom application to use VR technology to let people virtually try on clothes before buying. Instagram has also activated the Stories feature for some accounts, allowing users to try makeup, shop, and interact with clothes through VR and AR directly through the lens.

More experiments on AR and VR are ongoing, and the companies behind them have exhausted their imagination, just to seize every nerve that people desire to consume in the future.

The great potential for serving human beings is one of the reasons why they can attract much attention in the future. Brian Burke, vice president of research at Gartner, said:

This ability to perform multi-sensory communication with humans will create a richer environment, and VR / AR will transform from “technical proficient” to “understand human technology”.

In five to ten years, AR / VR products will be more widely used for commercial communications, retail, entertainment, sports, health care and other industries. In 2020, China’s AR / VR market will grow by 108% compared to 2019.

When companies start making money with a technology, it usually takes off.

Autonomous Paradise

Picture from: TESLA

In March 2018, an Uber driverless car hit a woman who suddenly appeared on the road in Tempe, Arizona, USA. The first fatal incident of a driverless car crashing into a person happened.

Even though the accident turned out not to be a violation of Uber ’s self-driving car, but was caused by the victim ’s own temporary emergence, since then, there has been a haze on the head of the unmanned car, and people cannot stop doubting about autonomous driving and panic.

However, based on the combination of 5G and more powerful AI, the safety index is getting higher and higher, and we are getting closer to real autonomous vehicles, drones, and intelligent transportation cities.

In the past few years, people around the world have been able to see cars with partially automated technology passing by from time to time, and they are testing completely autonomous technology. Some Tesla cars can now reach Level 2 (driving support) or Level 3 (operated by the driver in an emergency) , Switching the automatic driving mode on the highway.

2020-2021In 5G commercial applications, autonomous driving and VR / AR will take the lead to benefit. 5G will help it achieve fully autonomous autonomous driving, and support high-quality image recognition and high-speed data traffic judgment of autonomous driving, bringing smarter vehicles. The cockpit supporting facilities will become a new outdoor entertainment space.

However, to bring self-driving to the market, it will also be achieved through strategic adjustments between automakers and technology manufacturers. Now, Intel, Qualcomm and Ford, BMW and other companies are already cooperating, and Uber has already started to build an autonomous pilot fleet.

Under the trend of accelerated development of automation, independent intelligent objects in life will be able to work with other devices. We can imagine a situation not far away:

Various types of robots will be able to run in the same assembly process. Self-driving cars will efficiently deliver packages to the target area, and robots and drones on the cars will make the final dispatch.

Flying cars have also gone hand in hand with unmanned cars this year, occupying the focus of future travel topics. Although a large number of people still doubt flying cars, some people are already experiencing this revolutionary change.

Bell, Boeing, EHang and other companies have developed air taxis and announced plans for urban air traffic solutions. As Uber Air trials its flight taxi services worldwide, flying cars have become a reality Commercial operations may begin in 2023. Of course, not all commercialization attempts will be successful. When autonomous driving is still far away from the public, flying cars may be more like a small background in Dragon Ball than available at hand. Near future.

Multiple wearables

(bit) , it uses quantum physics to manage data and decisions.

So it executes much faster than our existing types of computers. (in seconds instead of days) (called entanglement) interact with each other through an almost mysterious process.

These properties can one day make quantum machines outperform even the most powerful classic supercomputers, so it can also solve problems that today’s computers cannot solve, including drug development methods, financial choices, pricing methods, and climate change. Way and so on.

Most of our existing encryption security protocols, including online banking, database storage, digital signatures, blockchain and disk encryption, etc., are also based on a series of problems that are difficult for existing computers to solve.

It is only now that quantum computing is limited to researchers in professional laboratories. Production and management of qubits is still a huge engineering challenge. Quantum computing also means that data stored or transmitted using current standard protocols will be threatened.

Although some companies claim to achieve quantum supremacy, we have not yet seen the technology demonstrate the computing power to solve real-world problems.

From this year, the field of quantum computing will experience a period of further increase in investment, intensified competition, accelerated industrialization, and a richer ecosystem. Ali Dharma Institute believes that fault-tolerant quantum computing and demonstration of practical quantum will be the two most critical technological milestones and will become the turning point in the practicality of quantum computing. In the next few years, it will be a very difficult task to truly achieve any of them, and quantum computing will enter a period of technical difficulties.

But based on the potential of quantum computing, it can be said that in the next ten years, 5G will be seen in the first five years and quantum computing in the next five years.

Retro Retro Technology


Everything is a “circle”, and technology is also returning to retro.

When Motorola’s folding phone Razr was released last year, Awesome sounded in front of the screen.

Razr not only inherits the clamshell design of mobile phones of the past, but also separated the screen and keyboard into a complete screen. The latest folding screen technology is used here.

After 2020, more companies will use new technologies to revive the products and culture of the old era. In an era where technology is quickly becoming unpredictable, people look back and miss the past more frequently.

This year’s vinyl record trend has swept through, with annual sales revenue surpassing CD for the first time since 1986; Nintendo is engraving the classic IP every year, using old bottles in new bottles, but the player’s enthusiasm is not diminished; within the next ten years , There will be more retro revivals in the design of houses, hotels, and shops: cutting-edge electronic engines will be inserted under the nostalgic design of unmanned cars, medieval furniture will be printed from 3D environmentally friendly materials, and everyone will be recyclable and recyclable. Out of the biodegradable bags, shopping on the street carrying them is like returning to the simple age of a cloth wrapped with pastries.

Neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky pointed out in a study that the vast majority of people listen to concerts around 20 years of age or even earlier, and become a favorite music of a lifetime, but if a person is exposed to a new pop after 35 Music, then more than 95% of the time, this person will never listen to this kind of music.

Therefore, nostalgia is also a need, and there is always a lot of good memories in the irreversible past. The new technology, while retaining this need, and regenerating it in a new environment, can maximize the integration of memory and the present.

When people are worried about the future, retro can remind people of the idealized version of the past, so as to expand to what we want to be in the future, the temperature-filled state of life we ​​want, and restore optimism.

But any form of technology is just a carrier. The world is constantly evolving. What we really don’t want to lose is the feeling of love.

Write at the end

In 2019, our “cult” of technology has almost reached the top.

Silicon Valley CEOs are being drawn to the U.S. Congress and the European Commission for questioning. Digital ethics has become a topic of global concern. Digital pollution, data sovereignty, data abuse, debates over algorithmic bias, social media’s role in democratic processes Manipulation takes place every day in turns around the world.

In 2020, the aforementioned ten trends are ready to open new battlefields in various fields.

But for future results, our ideas can’t help but fall into extreme good and extreme bad. Gerd Leonhard, one of the top ten futuristic keynote speakers in the world, said:

The future is often presented in two forms: Silicon Valley sells us utopias (Superhuman) , Hollywood and Netflix, etc. sell us Dystopia (fear) . However, the real future is neither ideal nor purgatory.

In “Beauty New World”, the supreme ruler talks with “barbarians” who have been transformed into “lifetime happiness.” The ruler says that you should be fortunate to live in a stable, turbulent and painless society.

The barbarian told the ruler: I don’t need to be comfortable. I need God, I need poetry, I need real danger, I need freedom, I need goodness, and I need sin.

The ruler: What you really want is the right to suffer.

Barbarian: Well, now I have the right to suffer.

In the exponential technological storm of the next decade, we also need this sobriety.

We do not want to become more mechanical, more electronic, more virtual, and become as perfect and timeless as rocks. Because technology will bring about a variety of disruptive possibilities, we are able to rediscover and think about the relationship between technology and human beings.

After the tsunami and tsunami, we return to the calm sea and understand the meaning of human beings.