Source ｜ Internet and entertainment gangsters ( ID: TMTphantom)
Author ｜ Pei Pei, head of the strange bandit
Head image | “Aunt” movie poster
Under the raging of new crown pneumonia, the 2020 Spring Festival stalls will be completely destroyed, and all movies will be withdrawn. The “Mom” directed by Xu Yan suddenly announced that he would switch to the premiere of the “Headline” short video platform (Dou Yin / Watermelon / Volcano), which aroused the common concern and hot discussion of the industry and melon eaters. The purchase price of 630 million yuan (it is said to still be the bottom line) proposed by the headline department clearly exceeded the market expectations, which caused the producer’s share price to soar.
Many people believe that this is not only a symbol of headline entry into the chief video and film industry, but also a symbol of the Internet industry’s “innovation” of traditional film and television. In my circle of friends, at least dozens of people have retweeted related news. Of course, while cheering for this “great innovation”, the three long video platforms have been slammed as usual-investors think they are not efficient enough and smell bad, far less than the vibrant short video platform Yunyun.
Let me talk about my point of view. In view of the limited time during the Chinese New Year, let’s start with the simple and slowly progress.
First of all, anyone who has watched Auntie should admit that this is a very mediocre movie, which is neither funny nor novel. If the Spring Festival stalls have not been cancelled, even if relying on Xu Jing’s golden signboard, it will be difficult to achieve the top three box office records. If you disagree, check out this movie (now available for free).
The headline department’s offer of 630 million yuan is equivalent to more than 1.6 billion cinema box office. Frankly speaking, I think the chances of “Aunt” getting 1.6 billion box office screenings in theaters are very low. Please note that the Spring Festival 2019The third-place “Flying Life” has a total box office of only 1.7 billion, and each producer has invested a huge publicity budget. For Xu Yan and Huanxi Media, this business is stable and profitable, and very business-minded.
Last year of the Spring Festival, “Flying Life” also had only 1.7 billion box office
Second, for the headline department, the price-performance ratio of purchasing the movie “Aunt” is also good. The huge topic effect caused by this incident is already worth hundreds of millions of advertising expenses-in my circle of friends, at least a hundred people have reposted the relevant messages. This purchasing behavior can not only bring traffic to Douyin / Watermelon / Volcano, but also increase the overall reputation of the headline department: People have praised it for its high efficiency, flexible thinking and short decision-making process.
During the Spring Festival, the fast hand invested a budget of 1 billion red envelopes, and the vibrato claimed to have invested 2 billion. Tencent Department, Ali Department, Pinduoduo, and B Station also made a large amount of customer acquisition investment. The customer acquisition input can be roughly divided into two types: the first is direct purchase / return, and the second is brand promotion (promotion). The headline was the purchase of “Aunt”, at least once a beautiful product announcement, or it may have directly acquired new registered users. Good job.
Third, especially for the Watermelon video under the headline line, this is a good attempt. There are three short video applications on the headline, of which the vibrato is the most popular, and the volcano is the main sinking market (located close to the fast hand), so what about watermelon? Historically, watermelon has favored PGCs; in recent times, it has apparently expanded to long videos, introducing home-made variety shows and home-made dramas. The second column of the watermelon video homepage is “Projection Hall”, which is the long video content. Douyin and volcano playing “Aunt” may just be a fresh picture for users, and watermelon playing “Aunt” may mean a continuous and fundamental change in platform positioning and tonality. I estimate that most of the audience who actually watched Auntie may have watched it in watermelon (looking forward to the follow-up data).
The above is positive, but the following is negative. My opinion is simple: the headline is the first tactic to buy the first broadcast of “Aunt”The event may have a little strategic significance; it does not constitute a strategic impact on the entire video industry and even the pan-entertainment industry. Furthermore, it is not a symbol of “revolution” in the film and television industry, and it has not changed the industry trends of the past few years.
Let ’s enter the popular “On the Break” time below.
First of all, headlines are the purchase of the first broadcast rights of “Aunt” at a high price, which is nothing new to the video industry. Over the past five years, the three major video platforms have been purchasing, customizing, or making headline content at ever-increasing costs, from episodes to variety shows to movies. “Platform solo” is also nothing new. The three major video platforms have long been unsatisfied with sharing the world with satellite TV. For a few S-level dramas, the platform is completely willing to pay sky-high prices to buy the solo rights-of course, because the platform’s budget is limited, they cannot adopt this routine for all content.
Taking 2019 as an example, “Chang’an Twelve Hours”, “Chen Qingling” and “Qing Yu Nian” are only broadcast on the video platform, and have not yet landed on TV (probably never will). Some people think that this is affected by the TV show “Limited Order”-this view is wrong. As far as I know, at least “Changan Twelve Hours” was confirmed to be exclusively broadcast by Youku during the production stage. The purchase price of such S-level solo dramas can often reach more than 10 million yuan for a single episode and 400-500 million yuan for the whole drama; although it is lower than 630 million yuan for “Aunt”, it is on the same order of magnitude.
Second, the video platform is not without investment in the movie content-the network broadcasting rights of “Red Sea Action” and “Wandering Earth” have all sold a relatively high price; even if it is an ordinary movie, it is sold to Video platforms can generally earn millions or even millions of revenues. Of course, the video platform’s investment in movies is much lower than that in episodes and variety shows. why? Because movie content occupies less time for users and is a one-time viewing, it does not meet the strategic goals of the three major video platforms at this stage.
A 45-episode headline drama can be broadcast on the video platform for at least 15 consecutive days, occupying about 30 hours of user time; even if the user jumps, it usually takes 15-20 hours. In contrast, a movie, no matter how well-produced and how significant the topic effect, can generally only occupy 2 hours of user time, and it will be over after watching it. Video platforms require user stickiness, and especially “continuous” content that attracts users’ attention and pays. In this case, the movie is definitely not the best choice.
As early as 2018, the network broadcasting rights of blockbuster movies have been sold at high prices
Third, movies-I mean movie content that is about 120 minutes long, uninterrupted, and has high industry standards. Naturally, the most suitable scene is the theater line. Since more than 100 years ago, movies have been prepared for quiet and dark cinemas, and audiences want a more complete, undisturbed, and focused viewing period. Even if you watch a movie at home, the best way to experience it is to close the curtains, turn off the headlights, and watch it on a high-definition display or projection. Smartphone screens and fragmented time are naturally not suitable for movies, so it’s never a good idea to broadcast movies exclusively on mobile (especially short video platforms).
If the consumer scene of the cinema is eliminated one day, users no longer need a “complete, undisturbed, and focused” video entertainment method? Then the movie will die (hopefully that day will not come) and other forms of video entertainment will take its place. Any era and any kind of scene will produce a unique form of entertainment. There is no way out of the rigid “cross-platform transplantation”. Imagine that you transplanted 3A action games on the host platform to mobile phones without modification and optimization. What would be the effect? It may be novel at first, but it is not a long-term solution.
Finally, the business model of buying content at high prices has proven to be unsustainable in the online video industry. In the past few years, the three major video platforms have all suffered huge losses, because advertising / VIP paid revenues cannot cover content costs. In the production and broadcasting of sky-high dramas, almost all enterprises are suffering: the platform bears huge costs, the drama company’s cash flow is not smooth, and the advertisers have not received good returns. Only celebrities are making big money-before the introduction of the salary limit order, it is not uncommon for a big drama to be paid 120-200 million. The entire industry is working for celebrities!
The long video industry must form a sustainable business model and must not rely on sky-high content procurement. At present, the more mature business models with some possible breakthroughs are: relying on PUGC + vertical professional content + good community atmosphere to achieve higher user stickiness and better cost control, represented by China ’s B station, the United States YouTube; completely abandon non-paying users and advertising revenue, only attract VIP users with high-quality paid content, and go deep into every aspect of production and distribution, represented by Netflix in the United States. Please note that China’s threeBig video platforms are very different from Netflix’s business model.
China does not have a Netflix benchmark, and none of the three major video platforms is.
All in all, “Aunt” is a successful business behavior for the producer and a successful publicity campaign and tactical action / strategic test for the headline department. Toutiao is carefully testing the video industry, but the main task should be watermelon video, not the trembling sound of many people. The online broadcast of “Aunt” has not changed the sky-high procurement model formed over the past years, and there are no revolutionary changes for the video industry and the film and television industry. Moreover, history has repeatedly proven that sky-high buyouts of head content are only expedient and can build popularity in the early stages, but cannot form a sustainable business model (at least in China at this stage).
Of course, many people have suggested that from the “Aunt” online solo event, we can see how high the execution power and determination of the headline system, how backward the traditional film and television industry, and the response of the three major video platforms. How slow it is, etc. etc. These ideas may make sense, but I’m not too interested in them, and I don’t have first-hand information, so I won’t discuss them here.