This article is authorized to reprint from WeChat: Suning wealth of information (ID: SuningWealthInsights) , author: Suning Institute of Finance Researchers Tao Jin, Gu Huijun, Shi Xujian, picture title: Tencent News Dachu.com

The pneumonia epidemic is urgent and will have a certain impact on the macro economy.

In the short term, supply factors such as labor and capital will shrink due to the direct and indirect effects of the epidemic. For example, labor supply may be reduced due to various factors such as illness, isolation and treatment, and restrictions on mobility.

On the demand side, in addition to the transient outbreak of demand for individual industries such as medicine, it also has an impact on the demand for a broader service industry such as consumption and transportation.

Legend of the Front Car

What’s the impact? You can refer to the SARS epidemic in 2003. The reason why SARS of that year has certain reference value is that SARS and the epidemic are similar in many aspects.

First, the viruses that caused the outbreak are similar. The SARS coronavirus and the new coronavirus belong to the same virus subgenus. Both can infect the respiratory system and cause severe pneumonia. At the same time, there is no specific medicine, and only symptomatic treatment can be performed.

Second, the evolution of the epidemic situation is similar. Professor Yu Xiaohua of the University of Göttingen in Germany applied the classic infectious disease SIR (susceptible infected recovered) model to predict the evolution of the epidemic. The model divided the population within the epidemic area into three categories:

S, Susceptible, refers to those who do not have the disease, but lack immunity, and are susceptible to infection after contacting the patient;

Class I, Infective, refers to a person infected with an infectious disease, which can be transmitted to members of class S;

R, Removal, refers to a person who has been isolated or has become immune due to illness.


Using this model, SARS parameters were used to simulate the transmission route of pneumonia in Wuhan. The main conclusion was that it reached its peak about 90 days after the virus outbreak.

Taking SARS as an example, the first patient of SARS was discovered in mid-November 2002. The epidemic spread rapidly from March to May 2003, reaching a peak from about 90 days after the virus outbreak, and was basically contained in June. , Lasting more than six months.

The first case of the new coronavirus was discovered on December 8th, and a concentrated outbreak began in about 50 days (about January 20th). It is expected to reach a peak in about 90 days and come to an end in about 4 months (early April ), The epidemic ended in early May. Although the prediction of this model is very simplified, it has been recognized by other scholars to some extent. So far, the prediction model is basically consistent with the current status of the epidemic.

From this point of view, the prevention and control of the new coronavirus epidemic is likely to be a protracted war, and the whole society must be fully prepared.

From the perspective of various industries in the national economy, the impact of the SARS epidemic in that year varied. The consumer and service industries are inevitably impacted. The impact on infrastructure, transportation and other fields is not small.

First, the year-on-year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods representing consumption continued to decline significantly to 4.1% in the first few months of the quarter, the lowest point in years before and after. Second, the transportation activity plummeted, and the transportation industry The growth rate of value added fell to 2.3% in May 2003, the lowest point in the past few years. Third, although demand for industry and manufacturing remains strong (30% growth in fixed asset investment), the supply side has been affected by the epidemic The impact of factors such as the construction period is obviously weak, and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial value added continued to decline significantly in the first few months of the quarter.

From this perspective, the SARS epidemic has impacted the economy in the short term, but the long-term impact is not significant.

Speciality of the epidemic

However, the economic and social development of the epidemic has been different from 2003. It mainly includes the following differences:

First, the new coronavirus itself is still different from SARS.

The new coronavirus is highly contagious, but its pathogenicity and lethality appear to be lower than SARS. Many times, the more infectious a virus is, the weaker its pathogenicity will be. (For example, Ebola virus has a very high lethality, but it is infectious Lower and easier to isolate and control) . This provides a relatively good environment for the diagnosis and treatment of patients, and to a certain extent indicates that the epidemic may not be as severe as SARS.

Second, the epidemic was discovered and controlled relatively early, the news media spread more fully, and the government’s emergency response capacity was significantly enhanced.

The reason that SARS raged that year was related to the neglect of prevention and control in the early stage. A typical example is that a large number of medical staff were infected in the early stage of the epidemic, resulting in shortage of human resources in hospitals, and most of the medical staff in some hospitals could not work.

In response to the epidemic, the government has taken early measures to effectively prevent the widespread spread of the epidemic, at least at present there is no large-scale infection of medical personnel. On the other hand, timely management and control measures are likely to have an adverse impact on the economy. Restricting personnel movements and large-scale isolation across the country will have a certain impact on the areas of consumption, services and transportation.

The third is the economic dimension.

At that time, the Chinese economy was still in the period of trade blowout immediately after entering the WTO, and the superimposed investment-led development model and the demographic dividend window were superimposed. However, the current downward pressure on China’s economy continues to be very different from that year. In the decline of economic growth, the marginal impact of the epidemic shock may be greater, and the release time may be longer:

First, substantial shocks may come earlier. This year’s Spring Festival is early. If the epidemic situation does not ease in the short term, there may be a delay in the return of groups to return home after the holiday. The construction period of infrastructure and real estate projects will be greatly affected in the first quarter.

Second, pessimistic expectations in the areas of consumption, accommodation, catering and aviation will be hit. In the future, there may be downshifts in these areas, and it is difficult to pick up in the short term.

Third, in the context of a trending downturn, it is difficult to find new breakthroughs in fixed asset investment. Infrastructure construction is likely to bottom out due to the outbreak, and the intensity and effect of fiscal stimulus such as special debt also need to be further observed.

In addition, from the perspective of prediction, the epidemic may become a catalyst for more proactive fiscal policy and central bank interest rate cuts.

From the perspective of government policies in 2003, fiscally, the government targeted subsidized industries such as tourism, transportation, and catering, and did not implement a proactive fiscal policy on a large scale. The monetary policy did get short-term easing, but it quickly turned around and tightened because China’s economic risk at that time was overheating instead of the current downward trend. At present, society’s confidence in the economic outlook is relatively fragile, and a wave of stimulus is needed to increase confidence.

Taking the stock market as an example, the SARS epidemic in the first half of 2003 did not change the fact that the stock market rose throughout the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 1320 at the beginning of 2003 to 1513 at the end of the year, an increase of 14.6%.

In terms of sub-sectors, the structural impact of the epidemic on various industries is obvious, and it needs to be analyzed based on the time of the epidemic’s evolution.

The following figure shows several industries that were greatly affected by the SARS epidemic that year. Most industry sectors were in the epidemic development period. (December 2002-2003 2 and (March 2003-May 2003) at the peak of the outbreak. Most industries have experienced an increase in the epidemic development period and a significant decline in the peak period. Typical industries include hotels, restaurants, tourism, commerce and retail.

Passenger cars, logistics, pharmaceuticals and other industries are even more affected by the shift in demand and expansion, with both performance and valuation rising. Among them, in addition to the rapid growth of the passenger car sector, in addition to the rapid growth of the industry, the negative impact of the epidemic on public transportation has triggered more demand for private cars; the rise in the logistics industry was affected by the e-commerce demand that year.

Also, be aware of potential investment opportunities in related industries. exampleFor example, during the SARS period, civil aviation passenger traffic has plummeted since the first quarter of 2003. In the second quarter of 2003, civil aviation passenger traffic fell by 48.9% year-on-year, which was about 10 million fewer passengers than the same period in 2002.

Airline performance has also been greatly affected, and stock prices fell during the peak of the epidemic. However, the airport that is closely related to it is because of the stability of its performance. (the airport’s revenue does not depend on foot traffic, but mainly depends on the fees paid by the airline) > Keeping firm on the stock price.

It is expected that the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic on the sector’s valuation and performance in the short term will be at least consistent with the 2003 SARS epidemic, but the degree of impact will depend on changes in the epidemic situation, especially Care must be taken to predict changes in investment opportunities brought about by different evolutionary periods of the epidemic.