In 2003, when SARS did not teach us, we must thoroughly and clearly understand this magnificent variant epidemic.
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “ Canadian Capital ” (ID: SCHC26), author Canadian Capital.
The year of great disaster is bound to change.
Gengzi was the beginning of a three-year natural disaster in 1960. A large area of the country was affected, and ordinary people fell into unprecedented famine. But it was also this year that China ’s first ground-to-ground short-range missile “Dongfeng” 1 was successfully launched, breaking the international rumor that “China’s missiles can’t stand the sky”, and the Oriental giants hit the ground to fight back.
At the moment of the epidemic, frontline fighters are in charge. As the rear, we need to stand one level higher and think about one step while ensuring a sufficient supply of materials, food and grass. In 2003, when SARS did not teach us, we must thoroughly and clearly understand this magnificent variant epidemic.
Image from snowball
In the cold winter, the pressure to maintain the six GDP is no longer a prediction, but a comprehensive consensus on the Chinese economy over the next five or even ten years. With the outbreak of the coronavirus, it wasn’t just the people’s bodies that suffered, but the most likely underlying people.
The book Collapse is worth reading during the outbreak. The book talks about the complexity of the modern social system and the increasing degree of coupling between the links, the system’s fault tolerance rate has been greatly reduced. The overall complexity and the high degree of local coupling are all about the evolution of programs to ensure that the system can run safely, but it is also these two characteristics that make it difficult to be warned by the whole society if there is a problem with a small node in the system Details-the system will face a full line of defeat.
Plane crash, nuclear power leakLu and Oscar awarded the wrong award, including this time the national coronavirus epidemic, which can be explained by the theory of the collapse system. The urban population movement brought about by economic development, and the hunger for food after ample life have increased the complexity of the social system, and the emergence of epidemics, local concealment, and the migration of the Spring Festival have caused social factors to be interlocked. The coupling response led to a large-scale outbreak in the country.
From the current situation, holidays are generally extended throughout the country, and most people do not stay behind closed doors. The economic downturn this year will most likely begin with the depression and decline of the catering, tourism, hotel, retail and other industries caused by the epidemic. And what kind of systemic crash will this Black Swan incident cause? Will the structural reform of the economy that is gradually moving towards a critical period retreat under the negative external effects of this node?
Learn from history. The fight against SARS in 2003, GDP still maintained a double-digit growth of more than 10%. But two points may be overlooked.
First, in the second quarter, SARS caused large-scale panic across the country. The GDP growth rate was 9%, which was significantly lower than the whole year. However, thanks to China’s accession to the WTO not more than two years ago, economic growth has stepped on a hot wheel. The destructive power of the epidemic on the economy has been greatly weakened after the year-round data have been flattened.
Second, the tertiary industry suffered the most from the epidemic. The growth rate of tertiary industry in the second quarter of 2003 was only 0.8%. However, in 2003, the contribution rate of the tertiary industry in China’s economic structure was only 39%, and the contribution rate of the tertiary industry in 2019 reached 59.4%, and the GDP contribution of the consumer industry exceeded 78.5%.
Can China withstand a fierce blow in the critical period of the already shaky reforms of the economy in 2019? The A-share market fell more than 7% year-on-year, and it seems to have reflected market expectations in advance.
Vicious sniper is aiming at the heart of China.
As a result, this battle now not only starts in Hubei and spreads across the country, it also ignites tens of thousandsThe war on the apex of planned SMEs. The national holiday is prolonged, and the epidemic situation is still undecided. The question that companies are considering the most is nothing more than how the upstream and downstream supply chain starts, how long can cash flow go healthy. Once the low consumption situation does not reverse for a long time, will it be 2020? Is it the year when small, medium and large areas are destroyed?
A large number of small and medium-sized private enterprises have always been the source of living water for the Chinese economy. Once their goal changes from making money to living, the economic situation can be imagined. If the confidence in reform that has been accumulated for many years is destroyed, it is really hard to return and it is frightening.
The epidemic is a serious illness. But who can prescribe a cure, and how can they do it right? Fortunately, this medicine primer is now in the hands of the state.
See the truth about the epidemic. These days, social groups and responsible companies have donated money and materials to help Hubei, and even the people have spontaneously organized caring teams, sending out a doctor’s caring meal, and transferring animal resources from overseas to support the epidemic area.
However, the people ’s spontaneous rescue operations are somewhat helpless, and even fake fake masks have flowed into the market on a large scale. Professional oxen who have troubled the country and started to spend money on protective clothing. Human nature is being tortured.
The urgent situation can still be responded in this way, but after the epidemic, the foreseeable large-scale economic decline, we must not rely on the self-issuance of private enterprises such as Wanda’s reduction and exemption of rents to businesses. Mutual relief between civilian forces can only slow down the problem, but it cannot really solve it.
This wave of epidemic will eventually dissipate, but the drug introduction of the people’s heart disease is still firmly held in the hands of the central government- Tax reduction and profit, hiding wealth for the people .
First of all, we will directly reduce taxes and reduce burdens in line with the status quo.
The essence of national tax policy is to adjust the social income structure of “the people do not suffer from unemployed and unemployed,” and balance the tax burden of all classes on the basis of ensuring optimal social resource efficiency. Therefore, according to the current situation of the epidemic that has severely impacted the national economy, it is reasonable and necessary to appropriately adjust tax administration.
For small and medium-sized enterprises facing a business crisis, the state is urged to reduce or even exempt value-added tax and income tax within this half year, and to delay the promotion cycle of taxation reforms such as settlement and settlement. The unreasonable situation of “tax” on the other hand reduces the structural contradictions of certain social classes in the early stage of economic recovery.
Second,Promote flexible employment and rent reduction to benefit the people.
The uncontrollable labor factors that directly affect the production and operation of enterprises are mainly manpower and rent. The state should provide large-scale subsidies to real estate owners from the top down, and accurately benefit SMEs through means such as rent reduction and rent exemption to effectively reduce their daily operating burdens.
In addition, based on the premise that the epidemic is preventable and controllable, enterprises are allowed to make timely adjustments to the labor system, flexibly determine employment policies according to their own operating conditions, and provide preferential subsidies in social insurance, five insurances and one fund to help the epidemic. During the period, business owners who have shouldered huge staff costs in accordance with the government have survived the foreseeable business crisis.
Furthermore, precision drip irrigation will strengthen capital support for the service industry.
As we all know, for the tertiary industry, especially large consumption and modern service industry, cash flow is comparable to the main artery of enterprises. However, the direct impact of the epidemic on consumption and the vacancy of corporate operations caused by the epidemic situation have caused many companies to encounter short-term cash flow problems. There are many high-quality innovative companies.
In this regard, the state should fully encourage commercial banks to broaden financing channels for SMEs, and provide mid-to-long-term low-interest or even non-interest-bearing loans to some companies that have good historical operating performance but are suffering from cash flow difficulties due to the epidemic. Increase capital support so that these living sources of the national economy can resume normal operations as soon as possible and continue to contribute to the economy and people’s livelihood.
Finally, encourage innovative business models and actively explore new resources.
The Chinese nation has always carried forward the optimism of the country’s hardship and prosperity, and at the time of the epidemic, the wise people still created many new business opportunities. The e-commerce logistics model has created a self-pickup method that avoids direct contact. Unmanned retail and other business models that provide low labor factor input are optimized. Telecommuting, virtual social networking, online games, and even traditional cultures such as media culture have all launched new ones. Change vitality.
The driving force for innovation lies in the people. The wisdom of the people deserves more resources from the top of the country. The government should give full attention and support to the new business model that emerged as a result of the unique social consumption environment during the epidemic, and actively explore new resources to cope with the pressure of economic underpinnings after the epidemic.
The pain of the disaster is painful. What the authorities are facing now is no longer undetermined policy support for the private economy, but a full activation that has to be done. The overall intention is thinking, policies, measures, determination.
The private donations and donations and Wuhan’s refueling are just a triumph of the epidemic, and the stability of the people must and can only rely on solid economic growth and solid reform support.
Tax reductions and benefits for small, medium and micro enterprises, reducing the tax burden of the most common people, and providing diversified financing channels such as low-interest loans for private enterprises in distress, targeting the tertiary industry.The industry may face a systemic rout, and the country’s potential will drive the economy to bottom out. This is a good medicine under the epidemic!
Pictures come from the Internet
Those who have constant production have perseverance, and nations with perseverance have hope. The restoration of the human heart is a national project that is more difficult than the cure of the epidemic, losing confidence and losing everything.
Seeing the loss of public confidence is a pessimist’s perspective, which can be used to truly implement what should be done, accelerate due policies, and turn the state’s responsibility to the people into action. It is a way for optimists to solve problems and fight back.
People who can do things do things, people who can speak make a sound. When there is a fever, they emit a light. Even if it is the fire in the dark night, it can bring light to the night, so you don’t have to wait for the torch. After that, if there is no torch, I will be the only light.
Just as Prometheus stole the tinder from Apollo, even if he experienced wind and rain, the hawk pecking and gnawing, he never feared to bring light to the world. At the moment, we are in the year of great disasters, and we are eagerly looking forward to the temple’s high worry about the suffering of the rivers and lakes.
To stabilize the economy, stabilize the people ’s livelihood, and stabilize consumption, the government must support the economy and comfort the people ’s livelihood in order to inspire people. Only in this way can we truly hope for a future revival in which the people have faith, the country has strength, and the nation has hope. People all over the country are waiting and looking forward.
In an age of disasters, the state must give the people the best protection. China, running with a huge load of internal structural transformation, has once again encountered difficult curves with a set destiny.
The need for business survival and the stimulation of economic vitality are imperative. At this moment, we urgently need the government to come up with the most accurate medicine primer in its hand, straighten the waist, shake off the restraint, and run a beautiful arc on this curve. Come here and return a stronger China!
If the epidemic can bring this, the heartache in early 2020 will be worth it!