This article is from the WeChat public account: span> Coaching Workshop (ID: ClecChina) span> , author: Bill Gates span> p>
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In 2014, there was a large-scale outbreak of Ebola virus in West Africa, with the highest number of infections and deaths. p>
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In 2015, Bill Gates pointed out in a TED speech that if there is something that can kill tens of millions of people in the next few decades, it is more likely to be a highly contagious virus, not a war, because we do n’t have any Global defense system against major outbreaks. p>
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The test has arrived now. At 3:30 am on January 31, 2020, Beijing time, World Health Organization Director-General Tan Desai announced in Geneva, Switzerland that the new coronavirus epidemic was an “public health emergency of international concern”. p>
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In addition to combating the epidemic, we should also think about how to learn from experience and use the current scientific and technological achievements to establish a good epidemic response system to prevent the next greater test. p>
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The following is the text:
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When I was a kid, the disaster we were most worried about was nuclear war. So in the basement there is a tube like this, filled with cans, food and water. p>
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When the nuclear war breaks out, we will hide in the basement, squat down and live on that package. p>
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Not a missile, but a microorganism p>
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The greatest danger of today ’s global disaster looks no longer like a nuclear war, but more like an infectious virus. p>
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If something can kill tens of millions of people in the next few decades, it is more likely to be a highly contagious virus than a war. Not missiles, but microorganisms. p>
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Part of the reason is that We invested a lot of energy and money on nuclear deterrence, but invested very little in the epidemic prevention system strong>. We are not ready to prevent the next epidemic. p>
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Let’s look at the Ebola virus. I believe that everyone has read relevant news in the newspapers and is full of difficult challenges. p>
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I tracked the development of the Ebola virus carefully by following a case analysis tool for polio eradication (Polio) span>. p>
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As the epidemic develops, it can be seen that the problem is not that we do not have a system that can be used, but that we do not have any system at all! p>
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This is indeed a global failure p>
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We can see that there are several obvious shortcomings. p>
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We can’t find a group of well-prepared epidemiologists who can go to the epidemic area to see the pathology and disease development. p>
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Our known cases are reported through newspapers, and they were lagging when uploaded to the Internet. They are still very imprecise. p>
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We ca n’t find a trained health care team, nor do we have a way to keep people waiting. strong> p>
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At present, MSF has made a great contribution to mobilizing volunteers. But even so, the speed at which we mobilized thousands of workers to the affected areas was very unsatisfactory. A major epidemic would require us to mobilize hundreds of thousands of people. p>
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Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa
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No one is studying the direction of treatment, no one is looking at the method of diagnosis, and no one is thinking about what tools to use. p>
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For example, we may be able to take the blood of the survivors and, after treatment, inject the plasma into the body to protect people who are not sick. But this method has never been tried. p>
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So there are many things that haven’t been done before. This is indeed a global failure. The purpose of the World Health Organization is to monitor the epidemic, not to do what I just said. p>
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However, the plot in the movie is another story: a group of very handsome epidemiologists are ready to go to the epidemic area to save everyone, but this is a pure Hollywood plot. p>
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Next time, we won’t be so lucky p>
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Our inadequate preparation could lead to the next outbreak, more harmful than Ebola virusserious. p>
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Let’s take a look at the spread of Ebola virus in (2014-2015) span> in the past year. In three countries in West Africa. p>
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Ebola virus spread in West Africa p>
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There are three reasons why it has not spread. p>
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The first is that heroes have done a lot of heroic deeds. They found many patients and prevented more people from getting sick. p>
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Second is the characteristics of the virus-Ebola virus is not transmitted by air. By the time you have sufficient infectious power, most people are already sick in bed. p>
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The third reason is that the virus was not transmitted to the urban area. It was pure luck. If the virus reaches urban areas, the death toll will definitely not stop there. p>
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Next time, we won’t be so lucky. p>
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Some viruses may leave you unaware, but when infected people take a plane or go to a shopping mall, they already have a certain infectivity. p>
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In addition, the source of the virus may be natural, such as Ebola virus, or it may be caused by biological terrorism. Therefore, viruses that can make the outbreak thousands of times exist. p>
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Let’s look at a model of a virus that is transmitted from the air, like the Spanish flu of 1918. p>
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Spanish flu simulation in 1918 p>
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The epidemic is likely to develop like this and will spread to the world at a rapid rate. strong> p>
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You can see 30 million people worldwide die from this disease. This is a very serious problem. We should never ignore it. p>
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Five Keys to Prepare for the Epidemic p>
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In fact, we can build a good response system that can use all the technologies and sciences that have developed to this day. p>
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We use mobile phones to collect and disseminate information to the public. We use satellite maps to monitor where and where people are moving. We have also made progress in biology, which can accelerate the discovery of pathogens and develop pharmaceuticals and vaccines in a short period of time. p>
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So we have a lot of tools available, but these tools must be integrated into a global health system, and we ourselves must be ready. p>
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Picture from Global Times
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When it comes to how to prepare, the most important thing to learn is the preparation of the military. First, soldiers must be ready to go to war anytime, anywhere. There will also be reserve soldiers in order to expand the number of war preparations. p>
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The NATO (NATO) span> has a mobile team that can quicklyTo act. NATO has designed a lot of war games to test whether the personnel are well trained-do you know the fuel, supplies, and the same radio frequency? Yes, that means they are ready. p>
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These are the things we should prepare for when facing an epidemic. What are the key projects? p>
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First, there must be a developed health system in poor countries. strong> In this system, mothers can have children safely, children can be vaccinated, and we can detect the trend of the outbreak as soon as possible. p>
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Second, a medical reserve team is needed, composed of many trained professionals who are always ready to bring their expertise to the affected area. strong> p>
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Third, use the army to cooperate with medical personnel. The army moves quickly, and we use it to ensure logistical transportation and maintain regional security. strong> p>
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Fourth, we need to do some situation simulation games-germ games instead of war games, and see what defense loopholes we have. strong> The last germ game was played in the United States in 2001, and the ending was not good, so the current germ and human score is 1: 0. p>
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Fifth, a lot of research and development work must be invested in vaccines and pathology. strong> In some areas, we have made considerable breakthroughs, such as adeno-associated virus, which can exert its effects in a very short period of time. p>
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At present, I do n’t know exactly how much this budget is, but compared to the possible losses caused by the epidemic, I am sure it is appropriate. p>
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According to World Bank estimates, if a global influenza outbreak occurs, it will bring at least US $ 3 trillion in global economic losses and millions of deaths. p>
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Investing in basic health care and pharmaceutical research and development will not only effectively prevent infectious diseases, but also promote global healthBalanced development makes the world healthier and safer.
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Go ahead, it’s urgent p>
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So I think these things are very important and urgent. p>
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We don’t have to panic, we don’t need to hoard dry food or hide in the basement. But we must act because time is not waiting for someone! p>
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Tan Desai, Director General of the World Health Organization, announced at 3.30am Beijing time on January 31st in Geneva, Switzerland that the new coronavirus epidemic was “international concern” Public health emergency “
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In fact, if we have to say that Ebola has brought us a positive impact, it is an early warning that wakes us up to prepare. p>
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If we start now, we will be enough to deal with the next outbreak. p>
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Thank you all. p>
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This article is from the WeChat public account: span> Coaching Workshop (ID: ClecChina) span> , author: Bill Gates span> p>