This article is from the WeChat public account: DT Finance (DTcaijing) , author: DT Jun, from the title figure: Oriental IC

As of 24:00 on January 31, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus pneumonia has reached 11,791, with 259 deaths and 243 cures.

This is the 21st day of continuous publication of the above figures. The “war” against viruses has continued to intensify, and a lot of reports on this war are fermenting.

But back to the outbreak control itself, we can still see some good news. For example, at 17 pm (January 31) yesterday, 20 patients with new-type coronavirus pneumonia from Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital were cured and discharged.

As we continue to obtain positive news, detailed analysis of the characteristics of the cases is being released. These actual case analyses also help the public and institutions better understand the outbreak.

During this period, we continued to focus on public information and collected detailed data on some cases of new coronavirus pneumonia. We put together these case data to roughly compile a picture of the epidemic’s infection, death, and healing characteristics.

Understanding these characteristics may not allow everyone to accurately determine whether they are susceptible, but at least the anxiety caused by “uncertainty” will be less.

How did the epidemic develop in the past 21 days

On January 5, 59 cases of “unknown cause of pneumonia” were reported by the Wuhan Health Commission, and after confirming the new coronavirus pneumonia on January 11, the number was “corrected” to 41 cases. At this point, “new coronavirus pneumonia” has appeared in front of all Chinese people.

Let’s go through some numbers and briefly sort out the development of the epidemic in the past half month.

Using the bulletins issued by the local health committees as data sources, we can see the change in the number of cases from January 11 to January 30.

The number of confirmed diagnoses increased rapidly from 41 to 11,791 in 22 days. Judging from the growth curve, the development of the epidemic can be divided into three stages:

The first 10 days (Before January 19) growth has been flat; on January 20, the National Health Commission began to release the number of confirmed cases nationwide, (January 20-26) on the 11th to 17th days after that, the number of confirmed diagnoses has accelerated; since the 18th day, (after January 27) , this climbing curve has become very steep.

We found from the change of death cases: the change curve of cumulative death cases is very similar to that of confirmed cases. In other words, the growth rate of death cases is similar to that of confirmed cases.

If we simply calculate the mortality rate by the number of deaths and confirmed cases at this stage, the 21-day mortality rate is basically between 2% and 3%.

What is the level of 2% -3% mortality? We can compare it to SARS.

Judging from the development period, this number is slightly lower than the number that was publicly recorded in the early days of SARS. From the end of February to the beginning of April 2003, the mortality rate of SARS has been between 3% and 4%; in terms of the scope of influence, this figure is far lower than the mortality rate of SARS at the same scale as the number of infected people. Because after the number of infected people worldwide exceeded 8,000,The mortality rate for the code went straight to 9%.

In addition, we also noticed that the curve of the cumulative number of cured cases of the new coronavirus pneumonia has a not smooth turning point. The time occurred on January 28, after which the growth rate of cured cases accelerated significantly.

What are the characteristics of the real cases behind the infection, death, and cure curves?

Characteristics of people infected with neocoronavirus pneumonia

For the study of the characteristics of infected people, we directly cited the paper “The New Coronavirus Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China,” which was published on January 29 in the New England Journal of Medicine by Gao Fu, deputy director of the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Feng Zijian, deputy director. Early Propagation Dynamics.

At present, the controversy about this paper is very large. But it is indeed the most detailed study of infected people at present. The sample included 425 new patients with coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan before January 22.

The controversial part is the analysis of case contact history.

Data shows that, although most of the infection cases before January 1, 2020, (55%) have been to the South China Seafood Market. However, 26% of the cases have neither visited the seafood market nor contacted people with obvious symptoms-this means that in December, the new coronavirus pneumonia has shown “human-to-human” transmission Characteristics of symptomatic infection.

From the overall situation of these earlier infected people, “middle-aged” and “male” are the more susceptible groups. Nearly half of the 425 patients were older than 60 years, and 56%40 cases) are male.

However, after comparing these cases into three periods, we found that the characteristics of the infected population were changing:

On the one hand, the proportion of females outnumbered men on January 12-22, which to some extent overturned the previous conclusion of male susceptibility; on the other hand, the lower age limit of infected people is decreasing The youngest patient before January 1 was 26 years old, January 1-11 was 21 years old, and the youngest patient from January 12-22 was only 15 years old.

We are not sure whether the characteristics of infected people are changing, whether the virus is changing, or because of the influence of the transmission path. In short, although middle-aged and older men are more susceptible overall, the new coronavirus has begun to show a trend of equality between men and women, taking into account all ages.

Characteristics of deaths

The characteristics of death cases are slightly different from the overall characteristics of infected persons.

Using 45 death cases for which detailed information can be found as a sample, we analyze from four perspectives: age, gender, past medical history, and time of treatment.

From the perspective of age distribution, the 56 death cases range in age from 36 to 89 years, with a span of 53 years. In these cases, the median age is 72 years, of which 84% are over 60 ——The proportion of elderly people in death cases is obviously higher than that in infection cases.

Of the samples analyzed for deaths, nearly 7 were male. Combined with the previous analysis of confirmed cases, this is partly affected by the sex ratio of early infected people. The proportion of men in confirmed infection cases before January 1 is as high as 66%.

It has a basic disease, which is described in the details of many deaths. Of these 45 deaths, 60% are (27 people) have previous medical history, the three major historical ones are high blood pressure, diabetes, and chronic bronchitis: 15 people had high blood pressure, 10 people Have had diabetes and 6 have a history of chronic bronchitis. Of the 10 cases with diabetes, 7 have suffered from other diseases such as hypertension.

Lastly, let’s look at how long these cases have been treated.

A total of 37 deaths were announced before this time. The treatment time span was between 1 and 22 days, and the median treatment time was 7 days. We noticed that the mode of treatment for deaths was 4 days, and a total of 7 people died on the 4th day of treatment. More than 80% of deaths have been treated for less than two weeks—that is, less than the general treatment cycle for new coronavirus pneumonia.

This means to some extent that most of the deaths caused by new coronavirus infections have not survived a treatment cycle.

Inspiration from cured cases

Death discussions are always very heavy, but in addition to deaths, we have noticed cured cases.

In general, as of 24:00 on January 31, a total of 243 infected people have been discharged. Through local health committees and public reports, we found detailed data on 37 of these cases, and analyzed the characteristics of these “lucky children” from age, gender, time of treatment and regional distribution.

In terms of age, we found that cured and discharged patients were younger than infected people overall—even younger. Among the 31 cured cases with a recorded age, the median age was 38 years, more than half of the cases did not exceed 40 years, and 90% did not exceed 60 years. Young people do have certain advantages in this war without gunpowder.

The results of the gender analysis are also in line with our expectations. Due to the previous periodMost of the infection cases are male, so relatively, 65% of the discharged patients are male.

From the time of treatment, among the cured cases, the median number of days of treatment is 9 days, and the mode is 7 days, which are a few days longer than those of death cases. By comprehensively comparing deaths and cured cases, to a certain extent, we can think that to win the new coronavirus, it is important to survive the first week of treatment.

Finally, we dropped the observation points on the regional distribution. In addition to Hubei, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Shanghai are the three provinces with the most cures. Among them, Guangdong and Zhejiang are the areas with the most severe epidemics except Hubei, but so far no deaths have occurred and cured cases are increasing.

If we expand the observation sample to the top 10 provinces with cured people, we can also see the names of Jiangxi, Beijing, Henan, Anhui, Hunan, Shandong, and Jiangsu. Judging from actual cases, the level of response in economically developed regions is still trustworthy.

Episode

Based on the analysis of public data, we have roughly summarized the statistical characteristics of the infection, death and cure behind the new coronavirus pneumonia.

We are still looking forward to more good news: the growth curve of confirmed cases and death cases has stopped climbing, and the rate of cured cases has increased faster … After all, these days are still “big New Year”.

In the end, we hope that this article will make you calm and stay at home, instead of anxious hoarding all kinds of Shuanghuanglian, Lianhua Qingwen, Huoxiang Zhengqi water-even wearing masks Ran to the entrance of the pharmacy to buy crowded masks.

Again, at this critical moment, don’t be overly pessimistic and blindly optimistic. Try to go out as little as possible, while leaving yourself infected, and leaving resources to those who really need them.

This article is from WeChat public account: DT Finance (DTcaijing) , author : DT 君