domeet webmaster

Since the deadly new coronavirus emerged in Wuhan in December 2019, scientists and official health agencies around the world are hurrying to find ways to curb its spread. New coronaviruses can cause respiratory diseases and have caused tens of thousands of infections. The current death toll is 213. (Note: DataAs of the time of publication of the English manuscript, non-latest data) , and it is still increasing daily. On January 30, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the epidemic constituted a “public health emergency of international concern”, which means that The incident will pose a threat to many countries and regions, and requires a coordinated response from the international community.

Although the key details and transmission of this new virus are still unknown, experts are predicting the best and worst scenarios possible based on previous epidemic cases and known information.

Chinese official agencies have adopted a series of prevention and control measures in response to the spread of new coronaviruses. Source: Kevin Frayer / Getty

1. How many people will the new coronavirus infect?

The Chinese government has blocked the epicenter of the epidemic, and researchers are sharing data with the World Health Organization and peers very quickly. Despite this, the number of confirmed diagnoses continues to increase, with more than 9,000 cases accumulating the previous day, and most of them are in China. According to a previous forecast, this virus may infect 39,000 of the 30 million residents in Wuhan. (This is one of the model prediction scenarios, not Wuhan Actual population) . “It looks like this virus has spread in China, it seems to be spreading too fast, it’s too fast and it’s hard to really control,” said Ian Mackay, a virologist at the University of Queensland in Australia.

In the best scenario, as prevention and control measures take effect, the number of people infected will decrease, said Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong. However, is there any practice of isolation and heavy use of masks?Effect, it is too early to say. He said the virus has an incubation period of up to 14 days, which is longer than the implementation of most existing control measures.

According to another prediction model [1], the worst scenario is that Wuhan may have about 190,000 people infected. Scientists are particularly concerned about emerging epidemics outside China. The virus has spread to small areas in Vietnam, Japan, Germany, and the United States, but official agencies quickly isolated infected people. As of January 30, the number of reported cases outside China did not exceed 100.

2. Is the new coronavirus very stubborn and difficult to eliminate?

If a virus can continue to spread in a group, it can be called endemic. Chicken pox and influenza are endemic in many countries, but vaccination and isolation of infected patients at home can help control the outbreak.

A major question is whether the new coronavirus is stubborn and difficult to eliminate. If prevention and control measures fail, it has a great chance to develop into an endemic. Like the flu, this could mean that as the virus spreads, deaths occur each year until a vaccine is available. If the virus can be transmitted by asymptomatic infected people, it will be more difficult to contain it, which also increases the possibility of the virus developing an endemic epidemic.

Several cases of asymptomatic infection have appeared, but it is unclear whether such asymptomatic or mild cases are widespread, and whether the situation is contagious and to what extent. “The virus we are facing may be long-lasting or permanent,” Mackay said.

The emergence of asymptomatic cases distinguishes the new coronavirus from coronaviruses that are closely related and cause SARS. From 2002 to 2003, the SARS virus broke out worldwide. However, SARS virus usually spreads when the infected person has more severe symptoms and needs to be hospitalized. Once the outbreak in the hospital is brought under control, SARS can be brought under control. There is no evidence that the SARS virus is still circulating in humans, Mackay said.

If prevention and control measures are effective, the rate of transmission will slow down, each infected person will not infect more than one person, and the current epidemic will gradually disappear, Cowling said.