The new outbreak of coronavirus affects everyone’s heart, including not only those who stay at home and cannot go out, There are also manufacturers who cannot resume work or delay it.
Report: Demand, supply chain and other issues affect shipments
A foreign data analysis agency (Strategy Analytics) has done research on the impact of the current new coronavirus epidemic on global smartphones in 2020 According to analysis, “the domestic smartphone shipments in the first quarter will fall by 30%.”
▲ On January 23, 2020, a passenger displayed an illustration of a coronavirus on a mobile phone at Guangzhou Airport in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China. Picture from: mb.com
For the year-round production situation, Sui Qian, Director of Strategy Analytics Wireless Smartphone Strategy (WSS), believes: < / p>
Global smartphone shipments in 2020 will be 2% lower than expected, and smartphone shipments in China will be lower than It is expected to decrease by 5%, among which the shipment volume of China’s smart phone market will decline by more than 30% in the first quarter of this year.
Why the new coronavirus has so much impact on smartphones, the Strategy Analytics report also mentions the problems, one The aspect is the decrease in demand:
The new coronavirus poses severe challenges for leading Chinese manufacturers such as Huawei, OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi. Strategy Analytics predicts that in the first half of 2020, they will face the risk of declining demand in the Chinese domestic market, while the expansion of overseas markets will also be affected by production capacity and travel bans. International brands such as Apple will also suffer from insufficient production capacity and the risk of falling demand in the Chinese market.
On the other hand, it has a lot to do with the supply of manufacturers. In order to control the further development of the epidemic, many places have introduced extended vacations and postponed them. Resumption policy, but this will inevitably have an impact on the smart phone industry chain.
70% of global smartphones are manufactured in China, so this will also affect the global smartphone supply chain And manufacturing capacity. Delays in plant start-ups due to isolation or travel restrictions will inevitably lead to temporary labor shortages.
Suppliers are experiencing tight supply
At present, there have been cases where mobile phone manufacturers are out of stock in the supply chain. According to GSM arena, Asus India Branch has An apology email was sent to fans stating that “the supply chain was disrupted due to the prevailing situation in Asia.” This announcement was made after the outbreak of the new coronavirus and it was hard not to associate it with the outbreak.
▲ ROG’s apology letter Picture from: GSM arena
However, the impact of the extension of short-term holidays on the industrial chain may not be as large as expected. A few days ago, Foxconn released a message saying An emergency plan has been prepared, and Foxconn’s factory will resume work in accordance with national holiday arrangements.
But Wuhan still occupies an important position in the mobile phone industry supply chain, and Apple has multiple suppliers in Wuhan. But from the current situation, it seems that these suppliers in Wuhan can not meet the iPhone’s manufacturing needs.
However, as previously reported by the media, Cook said in a recent conference call: “We have alternative procurement and contingency plans and we are trying to incorporate the delay in reopening the factory into our Work guidelines. “
In addition to Apple’s supply chain problems, the domestic production and sales rhythm of Huami OV is more or less Will be affected by the outbreak.
The influence of offline channels is huge
In addition to the supply chain and consumer demand, the outbreak has also had a profound impact on traditional offline channels. Judging from the sales of previous years, many consumers will buy mobile phones through offline channels during the Spring Festival. However, due to the impact of the epidemic this year, offline channels for smartphones were almost blocked. Relying solely on online shipments has hit Huawei, OV, and Apple, which have extensive offline channels.
In order to ensure security, Apple announced that it will close all stores in China until 24:00 on February 9, which not only affects offline The sales of mobile phones also affected the offline after-sales service of some mobile phones. Not only is Apple’s offline channel affected to a certain extent, other manufacturers’ channels have also been greatly affected.
Fortunately, a considerable part of smartphones rely on online sales channels, which have not been affected so much at present. It is foreseeable Yes, the proportion of online channels in smartphones should be higher in 2020.
Summary
This new coronavirus originated at the end of 2019, and this year ’s impact on the smartphone market, you can use the “deep” Words used words borrowed from Lu Weibing, vice president of Xiaomi.
This outbreak is for the mobile phone market: “The short-term is the impact of consumption, the medium-term is the supply chain coordination, and the long-term is the purchasing power.”
▲ Picture from: @ 卢伟 冰
Not only manufacturers will have heavy pressure, the upstream and downstream supply chain, even channel vendors, and even consumer demand may Change. The impact of this epidemic on the smartphone market may exceed our imagination.
I hope the epidemic will pass soon.
▲ On January 23, 2020, a passenger displayed an illustration of a coronavirus on a mobile phone at Guangzhou Airport in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China. Picture from: mb.com
For the year-round production situation, Sui Qian, Director of Strategy Analytics Wireless Smartphone Strategy (WSS), believes: < / p>
Global smartphone shipments in 2020 will be 2% lower than expected, and smartphone shipments in China will be lower than It is expected to decrease by 5%, among which the shipment volume of China’s smart phone market will decline by more than 30% in the first quarter of this year.
Why the new coronavirus has so much impact on smartphones, the Strategy Analytics report also mentions the problems, one The aspect is the decrease in demand:
The new coronavirus poses severe challenges for leading Chinese manufacturers such as Huawei, OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi. Strategy Analytics predicts that in the first half of 2020, they will face the risk of declining demand in the Chinese domestic market, while the expansion of overseas markets will also be affected by production capacity and travel bans. International brands such as Apple will also suffer from insufficient production capacity and the risk of falling demand in the Chinese market.
On the other hand, it has a lot to do with the supply of manufacturers. In order to control the further development of the epidemic, many places have introduced extended vacations and postponed them. Resumption policy, but this will inevitably have an impact on the smart phone industry chain.
70% of global smartphones are manufactured in China, so this will also affect the global smartphone supply chain And manufacturing capacity. Delays in plant start-ups due to isolation or travel restrictions will inevitably lead to temporary labor shortages.
Suppliers are experiencing tight supply
At present, there have been cases where mobile phone manufacturers are out of stock in the supply chain. According to GSM arena, Asus India Branch has An apology email was sent to fans stating that “the supply chain was disrupted due to the prevailing situation in Asia.” This announcement was made after the outbreak of the new coronavirus and it was hard not to associate it with the outbreak.
▲ ROG’s apology letter Picture from: GSM arena
However, the impact of the extension of short-term holidays on the industrial chain may not be as large as expected. A few days ago, Foxconn released a message saying An emergency plan has been prepared, and Foxconn’s factory will resume work in accordance with national holiday arrangements.
But Wuhan still occupies an important position in the mobile phone industry supply chain, and Apple has multiple suppliers in Wuhan. But from the current situation, it seems that these suppliers in Wuhan can not meet the iPhone’s manufacturing needs.
However, as previously reported by the media, Cook said in a recent conference call: “We have alternative procurement and contingency plans and we are trying to incorporate the delay in reopening the factory into our Work guidelines. “
In addition to Apple’s supply chain problems, the domestic production and sales rhythm of Huami OV is more or less Will be affected by the outbreak.
The influence of offline channels is huge
In addition to the supply chain and consumer demand, the outbreak has also had a profound impact on traditional offline channels. Judging from the sales of previous years, many consumers will buy mobile phones through offline channels during the Spring Festival. However, due to the impact of the epidemic this year, offline channels for smartphones were almost blocked. Relying solely on online shipments has hit Huawei, OV, and Apple, which have extensive offline channels.
In order to ensure security, Apple announced that it will close all stores in China until 24:00 on February 9, which not only affects offline The sales of mobile phones also affected the offline after-sales service of some mobile phones. Not only is Apple’s offline channel affected to a certain extent, other manufacturers’ channels have also been greatly affected.
Fortunately, a considerable part of smartphones rely on online sales channels, which have not been affected so much at present. It is foreseeable Yes, the proportion of online channels in smartphones should be higher in 2020.
Summary
This new coronavirus originated at the end of 2019, and this year ’s impact on the smartphone market, you can use the “deep” Words used words borrowed from Lu Weibing, vice president of Xiaomi.
This outbreak is for the mobile phone market: “The short-term is the impact of consumption, the medium-term is the supply chain coordination, and the long-term is the purchasing power.”
▲ Picture from: @ 卢伟 冰
Not only manufacturers will have heavy pressure, the upstream and downstream supply chain, even channel vendors, and even consumer demand may Change. The impact of this epidemic on the smartphone market may exceed our imagination.
I hope the epidemic will pass soon.