Now all enterprises are paying attention to the time of epidemic mitigation and predicting the impact on the enterprises according to the epidemic situation.
Editor’s note: This article comes from “ Dawei looks at the property market “, Author Zhang Dawei.
Because of the well-known epidemic situation, in 2020, the Chinese property market entered the frozen period during the peak period of returning homes in the past.
Statistical data. Starting from the end of January, the transaction volume of most developers has plummeted by 95% compared to the volume during the Spring Festival in previous years. The market is basically frozen, and most of the sales offices are gradually closed.
In January, the online signing data, and the sales data released by developers did not represent the real real-time situation of the market, lagging behind the real performance of the market. The market will gradually reflect the impact of the epidemic in February-March.
Because of the natural disasters, there is no way for the individual housing enterprises and the real estate industry to respond. From the current point of view, the housing companies with high debt ratios must have been greatly affected. The epidemic will also affect future decisions of housing companies, and it is a trend to reduce the debt ratio.
In the short term, the entire industry can only wait for the epidemic to ease, and expect the epidemic to ease quickly. Otherwise, in the next 1-2 months, a large number of companies will have liquidity risks and the possibility of debt defaults.
First: the epidemic is not alleviating and the market is unstable. At present, there is no way for real estate companies to cope with the epidemic. In the face of the epidemic, buyers will shrink completely and wait for the epidemic to ease. We firmly believe that the epidemic will be brought under control soon.
Second: The impact on the market is more than 90%. At present, at least from late January to February, the national real estate market’s transaction volume has fallen by at least 80%. If the recent epidemic situation does not ease, the recent market transaction volume will continue. The decline was more than 90%.
(Online signing data: The transaction area of major cities monitored in January 2020 decreased by 42% month-on-month, and most of the representative cities fell by varying degrees from the previous month, down by 5% year-on-year.)
Third: For most of today’s online organizations, the problem of buying a home cannot be solved. The decision to buy a house is not a matter of finding a path, but an investment property. With the epidemic not easing, no one dared to consume and invest in large amounts.
Fourth: For most real estate companies, the January-February practice is a period of tight cash flow, so most companies will raise a lot of funds in the fourth quarter, so for now, if the epidemic can ease in February, companies The pressure is relatively controllable, but once the epidemic spreads to March, it is expected that the debts due by real estate companies will blow out and sharp cash flow in salesUnder the circumstance of reduction, most housing enterprises, especially private enterprises, cannot hold on for two months.
So all companies are now paying attention to the mitigation time of the epidemic and predicting the impact on the company based on the epidemic situation.
Fifth: After the epidemic is controlled, the policy should alleviate some of the previous overly strict real estate control measures, especially for non-investment-type improvement buyers. There should be a preferential policy for second homes, or buyers who upgrade their homes for the only home exchange. Otherwise, based on the national real estate market sales of 16 trillion in 2019, it is likely to be significantly reduced in 2020, which will adversely affect the economy.